The Tigers were sorting options Saturday, all of which appear to be fluid heading into Sunday’s MLB Draft as negotiations quietly continue between the top players and MLB clubs.
Detroit picks third-overall when the 2021 draft begins at 7 p.m. (MLB Network, ESPN) and ideally would pick California prep shortstop Marcelo Mayer in the first round of a draft that spans 20 rounds and will extend through Monday and Tuesday.
The hang-up is that Pittsburgh has the first-overall turn in Sunday’s draft, followed by the Rangers. It is known that the Pirates probably prefer Mayer, a 6-foot-3, left-handed hitter from Eastlake High, in Chula Vista, California, just outside San Diego.
That would leave the Tigers likely to choose between two prep players they’ve been following heavily: right-handed pitcher Jackson Jobe from Heritage High in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; and 6-foot-3 shortstop Brady House from Winder-Barrow High in Winder, Georgia.
Money could be creating some degree of flux heading into Sunday evening.
It is known Mayer and his agent, John Boggs, are pushing hard for maximum cash allotted to the first-overall pick in 2021: $8.4 million as part of the Pirates’ overall, MLB-authorized budget of $14.394 million that can be spent on drafted players.
The Tigers are allotted $14.2 million overall, and $7.2 million for their first-round pick. A team can exceed its overall MLB-policed budget by 5% — if it cares to pay 75% tax on the over-run. Any more than 5% allows MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred’s office to penalize the overspending club with loss of a first-round pick in next year’s draft.
The Pirates, in keeping with most teams since hard draft-slot figures were applied, likely would prefer to sign Mayer for a bit less than the $8.4 million ceiling. It enables clubs to have important flexibility with later-round picks.
Mayer, however, and Boggs have made clear they will offer little in the way of discounts. Their leverage is Mayer’s scholarship to Southern Cal. While it might be implausible that Mayer would turn down even a contract offer in the $6.5 million-$7.5 million range, the Pirates would want assurance there. They have a history of viewing dollars more rigidly than many clubs, and that could be especially true if they insist on more budgetary freedom in later rounds.
The Pirates might also decide that overly tense negotiations with Mayer and Boggs are not prudent when other, attractive players are on the board. Henry Davis, a hard-hitting catcher from the University of Louisville, and Kahlil Watson, a superb prep shortstop from Wake Forest, North Carolina, are possible Pirates targets, as well as Dallas (Texas) Jesuit shortstop Jordan Lawlar.
Should the Pirates pass on Mayer, the Rangers, picking second, are expected to tab Vanderbilt ace right-hander Jack Leiter.
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Such a scenario would be more like a dream for the Tigers, who have been fans of Mayer since they began steadily tracking him in 2021. They, conceivably, could all but match Mayer’s and Boggs’ tough demands when, by way of the 5% over-run and tweaking of money offered in later rounds, something more appealing (perhaps pushing $8 million) could put Mayer in play for Detroit.
The Tigers also are playing poker with either of the two players they likely would take if Mayer is gone: Jobe and House.
Money, at least officially, is not a part of the Tigers’ draft-day considerations. But if players have relatively equal allure, it can become a factor if budget flexibility looms as an important edge in later rounds as teams attempt to pry prep stars from their college commitments.
More likely, the Tigers are waiting only to see who remains after the Pirates and Rangers have finished with their first-round turns Sunday.
The Tigers are not likely to choose Leiter, even if he is available, speculating that either Jobe or House could have better long-term durability and talent. Neither are they heavy on Davis, the Louisville slugger, nor are they overly keen on Lawlar of Dallas Jesuit.
The Tigers will have another selection Sunday: 32nd overall in the Competitive Balance round, a bonus category for six select clubs, which follows the first round.
Their choice at 32 will, of course, be incumbent on how a most unsettled first round plays out. To some degree, that could depend on how money affects the overall draft board, and notably a team from Detroit, heading into Sunday evening.