Detroit — Barring a last minute change of heart, it appears Matthew Boyd’s time with the Tigers is over.
According a sources on both sides of the negotiations, the Tigers do not intend to tender a contract to Boyd before Tuesday, thus making him a free agent.
Teams have until 8 p.m. Tuesday to tender contracts to players who are eligible for arbitration — essentially players with at least three years of service time.
Boyd, a seven-year veteran and the Tigers’ Opening Day starter the last two seasons, is one of 10 Tigers players eligible to seek arbitration this offseason. In a normal year, he would have been tendered a contract without issue.
But, heading into his age-31 season, Boyd is rehabbing after flexor tendon surgery in his left arm cut short his 2021 season.
While he expects to be pitching competitively by June, the Tigers apparently weren’t as confident of that. Estimates, using the algorithm developed and deployed by MLB Trade Rumors website, say Boyd could be awarded a maximum of $7.3 million for 2022 if his case goes to arbitration.
Given that the Tampa Bay Rays just took a one-year, $8 million flyer on 35-year-old Corey Kluber, who has made 24 starts total over the last three years, paying Boyd for what could be three or four months didn’t seem that risky. Especially given his seven years of service, his effectiveness when healthy and the leadership he’s provided on and off the field.
The Tigers, though, did sign a veteran lefty, Eduardo Rodriguez, for five years and $77 million, to anchor a rotation that features three pitchers — Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning — all entering their second full season, and their first without innings restrictions.
Still in the market for an elite shortstop that could cost between $20 million and $30 million annually, the Tigers could opt to non-tender Boyd and push that money into the shortstop fund. They chose not to tender catcher James McCann after the 2018 season when he stood to earn around $4 million.
Last Monday, Tigers general manager Al Avila indicated the Tigers were still shopping for starting pitchers. They had been in the bidding for lefty Steven Matz, who ultimately signed a four-year, $44 million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals.
Perhaps Avila feels like there is a healthier, innings-eating veteran starter within his grasp this offseason. That, plus the club’s concerns about Boyd’s health, may have led them to the decision not to tender.
Boyd, acquired with Daniel Norris for David Price in 2015, made 145 starts for the Tigers in seven seasons. He posted a 4.87 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP. In 2019, he struck out 238 hitters.
That tender deadline, initially Dec. 2, was moved up two days to protect those players against a potential lockout. If an agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement is not reached by 11:59 p.m. Dec. 1, which is unlikely at this point, owners are expected to call for a lockout and effectively shut down the industry.
Owners and the players association last week wisely agreed to move the tender deadline up so arbitration-eligible players wouldn’t be left in limbo. They will at least know, going into the lockout, whether they are still with their current team or headed toward free agency.
Keep in mind, the Tigers in recent years have signed players ahead of arbitration hearings. Michael Fulmer in 2018 was the only player in the last 20 years to take the Tigers to arbitration.
Here is a rundown of the nine arbitration-eligible players, using salary projections from MLB Trade Rumors:
3B Jeimer Candelario
► Age in 2022: 28
► 2021 salary: $2.85 million
► 2022 projection: $5.9 million.
► Comment: The question with Candelario isn’t whether the Tigers will tender him a contract, they certainly will. The question is, can the two sides work out an extension. After back-to-back productive seasons, Candelario has established himself as one of the club’s pillars as they move forward.
RHP Michael Fulmer
► Age in 2022: 29
► 2021 salary: $3.1 million
► 2022 projection: $5.1 million.
► Comment: Fulmer, after two major surgeries, reinvented himself as an effective and versatile leverage reliever last season. This is his last arbitration year before he’s eligible for free agency in 2023. Bringing him back in a contract year seems a no-brainer.
RHP Joe Jimenez
► Age in 2022: 27
► 2021 salary: $1.5 million
► 2022 projection: $1.8 million.
► Comment: If you are the Tigers, what do you trust, the projective numbers (like the 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings) or the actual production numbers (5.96 ERA, 1.522 WHIP, 35 walks, eight hit batsmen, six wild pitches in 45.1 innings)? The cost for giving him another year is minimal and there is upside, so the guess is the Tigers tender him.
RHP Jose Cisnero
► Age in 2022: 33
► 2021 salary: $970,000.
► 2022 projection: $1.9 million
► Comment: After pitching a career-high 61.2 innings, Cisnero ran out of gas in September. He gave up seven runs in his last two outings and didn’t pitch after Sept. 12. Before that, though, he was a horse. But relief pitchers are a fickle bunch, especially 33-year-old relievers. But, for less than $2 million and with a minor-league option left, the Tigers likely will tender him a contract.
RHP Spencer Turnbull
► Age in 2022: 29
► 2021 salary: $587,000
► 2022 projection: $1.8 million
► Comment: Coming off Tommy John surgery, Turnbull, who threw a no-hitter just a couple of starts prior to the injury last season, will not pitch in 2022. Devastating blow for player and team. It makes for a simple decision now, though. He will be tendered.
OF Victor Reyes
► Age in 2022: 27
► 2021 salary: $587,000
► 2022 projection: $1.3 million
► Comment: After a rough start, Reyes hit .325 and slugged .516 with a .864 OPS after the All-Star break last year. He’s a switch-hitter, runs well, plays all three outfield positions — even with Riley Greene coming, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Reyes is not tendered a contract.
UT Harold Castro
► Age in 2022: 28
► 2021 salary: $587,000
► 2022 projection: $1.5 million
► Comment: With Niko Goodrum opting for free agency, the Tigers decision to tender Castro got a little simpler. A left-handed hitter with excellent bat-to-ball skills, who hit .357 with a .791 OPS in high-leverage at-bats, who played eight positions (including pitcher) and has minor-league options left. How do you not tender him?
C Grayson Greiner
► Age in 2022: 29
► 2021 salary: $583,000
► 2022 projection: $800,000
► Comment: While he may no longer be a part of the plans at the big-league level after the club traded for catcher Tucker Barnhart, he remains valuable in terms of depth. Until Jake Rogers gets back (maybe by the end of next season) and prospect Dillon Dingler is ready, the Tigers are going to need a solid veteran to serve as the No. 3 catcher.
C Dustin Garneau
► Age in 2022: 34
► 2021 salary: $100,000
► 2022 projection: $1.6 million
► Comment: Although he performed well in 20 games (hitting six homers), it’s hard to see the Tigers bringing him back any other way than on a minor-league contract if or when he clears waivers.
chris.mccosky@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @cmccosky