Why Jeimer Candelario’s future with Detroit Tigers depends on his finish in 2022

Detroit Free Press

Jeimer Candelario believes his performance will improve.

“It has to turn,” he said. “It has to.”

But Candelario, entering his final year of arbitration eligibility this offseason, is running out of time.

The 2022 season is about 60% complete, and Candelario’s status has drastically changed from the Detroit Tigers‘ everyday third baseman (and a candidate for a contract extension) to nearly unplayable due to a combination of miserable plate appearances and sloppy defense.

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Candelario, who tied for MLB’s lead in doubles last season, is batting .203 with a .621 on-base-plus-slugging percentage in 75 games. Those numbers are worse than in 2019, when the Tigers demoted him to Triple-A Toledo. The 28-year-old has seven doubles, nine home runs, 18 walks and 67 strikeouts.

He didn’t play Sunday until grounding out in the ninth inning against the Minnesota Twins, as the Tigers suffered their 11th loss in 13 games, dropped to 20 games below .500 and fell into last place in the American League Central.

“It’s not just on me because not one person isn’t going to do it all,” Candelario said, before Sunday’s 9-1 loss. “You see LeBron James in the NBA. He’s the best player, and he cannot do it all. This is a game that needs a lot of people involved to win ballgames and to get a successful season.”

Candelario returned to the starting lineup Monday, crushed two home runs and finished 3-for-4 with four RBIs in a 12-4 win over the San Diego Padres. He flashed a reminder of the impact his bat can bring to the Tigers’ lineup, and if he wants to keep his spot on the team, he must finish the season on a high note.

“We expect that out of Candy,” catcher Eric Haase said. “We know the kind of player he can be. He expects that of himself. It’s tough watching guys keep lining out or just missing balls. It’s good to see him hitting some balls hard.”

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Every underperforming position player — from Javier Báez’s single-digit home run total to Robbie Grossman’s .280 slugging percentage to Candelario’s inability to drive the ball to the gaps — is responsible for this historically bad offense. The lack of run scoring is the main reason for the crummy win-loss record.

In 2022, Candelario has spiraled. Entering Monday, he was worth 3.8 fWAR in 2021. This year, he’s worth -0.5 fWAR and his 66 wRC+ ranks 198th among 204 players with at least 250 plate appearances. His 6.6% walk rate is a career worst across his seven years in the majors.

“I’ve been through ups and downs,” Candelario said. “That really helps everybody, and me especially. It’s going to happen. You know how it is. This is baseball. This is life. You’re going to go through ups and downs. You got to wake up, get up and do your best.”

Manager A.J. Hinch benched Candelario for the entire series against the Cleveland Guardians leading up to the All-Star break. Since the second half began, he is batting .400 (6-for-15) with three homers, one walk and three strikeouts in five games (four starts).

“For me, it was tough,” Candelario said about sitting out in Cleveland. “I’m a guy that plays every single day. I was trying to keep things positive and focus on the good things for me. I just kept working really hard.”

Remember, Candelario tied Bryce Harper, J.D. Martinez and Whit Merrifield atop MLB’s leaderboard with 42 doubles last season. He also won Tiger of the Year in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, the first player honored consecutively since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and 2013.

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“And now? He’s in and out of the (strike) zone and in and out of production,” Hinch said. “That’s weighed on him. I think, even subconsciously, I have to believe the offense has carried into his defense, even though he works hard to have that not be the case.

“It’s been a trying year for him. Last year, he’s in the middle of our order being a very big part of this. This year, he’s in and out of the lineup. It’s hard for him to get back on track if he doesn’t play. When he plays, he hasn’t been as productive as he or we had hoped, and other guys are going to get the opportunity. It’s bothersome.”

Candelario is worth minus-3 defensive runs saved and minus-3 outs above average, to go with six errors in 166 chances, and without gap-to-gap power at the plate, the Tigers refuse to enlist him as the everyday third baseman. A mix of Kody Clemens, Willi Castro and Harold Castro have earned playing time recently.

“Errors are part of the game,” Candelario said. “I wouldn’t say I’ve struggled. I’d say I got to make the plays to win ballgames. Just got to continue to work really hard, and I know everything’s going to be all right.”

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Candelario doesn’t have any minor-league options remaining, so the Tigers can’t demote him to Triple-A Toledo without removing him from the 40-man roster and allowing other teams to pick him up on waivers.

Therefore, Candelario isn’t likely to be designated for assignment this season. A different organization would surely add him to its 40-man roster, since a change in scenery could reignite the success from his past two seasons.

Also, the Tigers are unlikely to move Candelario at the Aug. 2 deadline. His trade value peaked this past offseason, when the Tigers tendered him a contract and agreed to a $5.8 million deal as part of the salary arbitration process.

That’s why the rest of this season matters.

“We’re all searching for solutions and not just trying to analyze it,” Hinch said. “It was one of our meetings we had with our coaches. We can all observe and see the issues. We have to find a solution to either unlock the potential we’ve seen in these guys or find a different solution to get more consistent playing time.”

Candelario — a free agent after the 2023 season — is officially a candidate to be non-tendered in his final year of arbitration eligibility this offseason, which would send him into the free-agent pool a year early.

His job with the Tigers is in jeopardy.

He needs more performances like Monday.

“It’s tough this year,” Candelario said. “We haven’t put everything together to win ballgames. We’re not doing the right thing to have the success that we know we can have, but there’s nothing we can do other than keep working really hard, controlling what we can control, and we go from there.”

Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @EvanPetzold. Read more on the Detroit Tigers and sign up for our Tigers newsletter.

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