Evaluating the Detroit Tigers as GM search begins: The two negatives new hire must handle

Detroit Free Press

The exact timetable is unclear. But the Detroit Tigers, at some point, will hire a new general manager.

“We’re going to start the process, and we’re going to let it run its course,” owner Christopher Ilitch said. “When we find the right candidate, it will have finished. That’s a longer way of saying there’s not an established timeline.”

The Tigers fired Al Avila on Wednesday during his seventh season as general manager.

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“We will deploy the full resource of our entire organization to ensure that we identify the best candidate to lead our baseball operations into the future,” Ilitch said. “That candidate is going to be the person who’s best equipped for us to accomplish our objectives.

“This will be an exhaustive, thorough search.”

As the search begins, here’s what the new general manager should keep in mind: 

Ownership

Ilitch, barring a shocking change in his approach, won’t spend over the luxury tax threshold like the the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and New York Mets.

He won’t be cheap, either.

“We have been a team that has ample resources to support our baseball operations leadership as we move forward to build a team to accomplish our objectives,” Ilitch said. “The resources have been and continue to be available for us to build a winning team. There’s no issues there.”

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In 2022, the Tigers’ payroll ranks 18th in MLB at $135,029,914. The Houston Astros, for example, rank eighth at $182,896,299. Ilitch needs to do his part in closing the spending gap between the Tigers and postseason contenders in and around the top 10. Paying the final $32 million of Miguel Cabrera’s lucrative contract in 2023 will give the new general manager financial flexibility in 2024 and beyond.

Ilitch hasn’t spent as freely as his father, the late Mike Ilitch, but the 57-year-old owner has displayed a willingness to spend more.

Just last offseason, Ilitch signed off on the agreements with shortstop Javier Báez (six years, $140 million) and left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez (five years, $77 million). Even after those splashy deals, the Tigers planned to continue adding in free agency in the coming years.

That won’t change.

Verdict: Neutral.

A.J. Hinch

This could go one of two ways, depending on the person hired, but we’re going to bet that Ilitch is smart enough to understand what is necessary for the Tigers to make progress.

Working alongside Hinch, a forward-thinking manager, is a best-case scenario for a progressive general manager, but only if the new general manager allows Hinch to have the influence he wants in the organization.

His previous general managers, Avila and Jeff Luhnow (Astros), put him in a position of power. Hinch has front office experience, enjoys being involved in all aspects of roster management and seeks control of the day-to-day lineup construction. The key is being on the same page and possessing the same values in pursuit of the same goal.

If Ilitch hires someone with connections to Hinch — Luhnow, Josh Byrnes, Pete Putila, Peter Woodfork, Brodie Van Wagenen, Jeff Kingston and Sig Mejdal, among many others — everything should run smoothly.

Hinch has a role in determining the new general manager.

But Ilitch will make the final decision.

“This organization has committed a ton to me, and vice versa,” Hinch said. “I want to help get it right. Today is another reminder that we haven’t succeeded. … I do think there’s a lot of areas that we can address and we will address once we get our leader in charge.”

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Another thing: The Tigers have a strong coaching staff. Hinch leads the crew, which features revered pitching coach Chris Fetter and respected bench coach George Lombard.

Hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh and assistant hitting coach Mike Hessman might not return to the Tigers in 2023. Head athletic trainer Doug Teter could be shown the door, too. Besides a few impending tweaks, the Tigers have a sturdy coaching staff anchored by a stable manager.

Verdict: Positive.

The situation

Liked by many internally for his personality, Avila didn’t have the respect of the fans by the end of his tenure. He made progress in some areas, but overall, he failed to build a winning team.

There should be a long leash for his replacement from ownership.

The new general manager won’t be responsible for the Báez and Rodriguez signings in 2021, the Hinch hire in October 2020 and the underwhelming returns from the Justin Verlander and J.D. Martinez trades in 2017.

Ilitch plans for the Tigers to win immediately, hopefully as soon as 2023, but if the franchise can’t get to the playoffs within a couple years, the general manager could argue for a fresh rebuild without Avila’s fingerprints.

Still, it’s a fairly clean slate.

Verdict: Positive.

Scouting departments

Improvement is needed in the amateur scouting and international scouting departments. The Tigers have struggled in those areas for decades. Amateur scouting director Scott Pleis and director of international operations Tom Moore probably won’t stick around through the regime change.

Restarting from scratch means the Tigers will have to hire many new evaluators.

Figuring out who stays and who goes from the scouting departments — along with the analytics department that owns advanced technology but is still trying to catch up to MLB’s best — will be the most difficult and important part of the job ahead of the offseason activities that begin in November.

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Verdict: Negative.

Player development

Unlike the scouting departments, the infrastructure of the player development department is already intact. Results remain to be seen, and it’s going to take time, but the Tigers revamped this area of their organization last season.

The Tigers hired Ryan Garko, who previously worked for the Los Angeles Angels, in September 2021 as the vice president of player development, replacing Dave Littlefield. The Garko-for-Littlefield swap was a progressive decision.

“One of my biggest focuses and one of the things I’m most excited about with this role is coach development and teaching our coaches,” Garko said last September. “Analytics, we can’t be scared of it. It’s not a scary word. It’s information that helps us make decisions.”

Garko then hired multiple employees from the Dodgers: Gabe Ribas (director of pitching), Ryan Sienko (director of coaching and field coordinator), Stephanos Stroop (lower-levels pitching coordinator) and Tony Cappuccilli (Triple-A Toledo bench coach). He also added staffers from other organizations, the college ranks (Steve Smith, upper-levels pitching coordinator) and the data-driven Driveline facility (Max Gordon, hitting coordinator).

Thanks to the recent overhaul, the player development department should be the least of the new general manager’s concerns.

Verdict: Positive.

MLB roster

The biggest reason for the Tigers’ messy 2022 season is the multitude of underachieving position players under team control into the future: Báez, Cabrera, third baseman Jeimer Candelario, second baseman Jonathan Schoop, outfielder Akil Baddoo and rookie first baseman Spencer Torkelson.

The offense averages 3.19 runs per game, lowest in baseball, and ranks 30th with a .614 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. Outfielder Austin Meadows has played just 36 games this season due to health issues and hasn’t homered; Báez, a swing-and-miss machine, has a team-high 11 homers and a .641 OPS.

“I’m always going to be the same guy,” Báez said. “Whenever I can help the guys, I’m going to help. But I also need people that help me and tell me what I’m doing wrong so I can make adjustments.”

Entering 2023, the Tigers must address their situations at first base, second base, third base, catcher, at least one corner outfield position and designated hitter. That’s six of nine spots in the batting order.

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“You can’t worry about something you can’t control,” Candelario said. “You just have to do your job and finish strong. We believe in the future. We believe that we have really good talent here. If everybody puts it together, we’re going to have a great team.”

Torkelson, the 2020 No. 1 overall pick, struggled to connect on fastballs in the middle of the strike zone through 83 games in the big leagues this season. He batted .197 with five homers before his July 17 demotion to Triple-A Toledo. For the Mud Hens, the 22-year-old has a .203 batting average with four homers and 27 strikeouts in 19 games.

The Tigers believe they have a budding star in 21-year-old rookie center fielder Riley Greene, but the 2019 No. 5 overall pick is only one player. The organization needs more young bats to lead the offense.

The starting rotation — despite Casey Mize’s Tommy John surgery that could hold him out until 2024 — appears adequate with Rodriguez, left-hander Tarik Skubal and right-handers Matt Manning, Spencer Turnbull and Beau Brieske. The bullpen, too, isn’t in need of substantial upgrades.

But the offense is bad. Fixing the problem will require creativity from the new general manager.

Verdict: Neutral.

Farm system

The farm system has thinned out, so there isn’t a plethora of assets to trade or promote to the big leagues ahead of 2023.

The Tigers already called up the top pitching and hitting prospects for their MLB debuts from 2020-22. Infielder Ryan Kreidler — batting .217 across 40 games in Toledo — is the organization’s best MLB-ready prospect. He could be a member of the 2023 Opening Day roster, but it’s unclear if he will be an everyday player.

Now, there’s still some talent at the lower levels in the minor leagues: right-hander Jackson Jobe (Low-A Lakeland), third baseman Colt Keith (High-A West Michigan, injured), third baseman Izaac Pacheco (West Michigan) and second baseman Jace Jung (West Michigan), along with Double-A Erie right-handers Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden and Reese Olson.

The reality is the Tigers’ farm system, ranked No. 24 by ESPN, no longer boasts elite prospects to the pedigree of Mize, Manning, Skubal, Torkelson and Greene.

Verdict: Negative.

American League Central

The American League Central is not the AL East, where all five teams — Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox — are highly competitive and in the mix for spots in the postseason.

The rebuilding Orioles, led by general manager Mike Elias (former Astros assistant general manager), have made incredible progress this season, but they’re stuck in baseball’s toughest division.

Therefore, joining the AL Central — also known as baseball’s weakest division — is attractive to a general manager. The AL Central standings, entering Friday: Cleveland Guardians (59-52), Minnesota Twins (57-53), Chicago White Sox (56-56), Kansas City Royals (47-66) and Tigers (43-70).

Leapfrogging the divisional competition next season, if you’re the Tigers, is a less daunting task than if you’re the Orioles trying to surpass the Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays.

Verdict: Positive.

Detroit and its fans

The Tigers are a mid-market team with enough financial support from ownership, and although Detroit lacks the glamour of other cities, the sports fans in this blue-collar town are hungry to root for a winning product.

That’s why the 2022 Tigers were such a letdown.

Fans treated Hinch like an immortal in 2021, when the Tigers posted a 68-61 record after May 7 and finished at 77-85 for third place in the AL Central. The same will happen if the new general manager snaps the franchise’s seven-year postseason drought.

Verdict: Positive.

Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @EvanPetzold. Read more on the Detroit Tigers and sign up for our Tigers newsletter.

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