Analysis: Yes, it’s early and sample is small, but Tigers need Báez to get cracking

Detroit News

Detroit — What follows is emphatically prefaced by these disclaimers:

▶ It’s only seven games.

▶ They’ve faced some of the nastiest starting pitchers in the American League (lefties Shane McClanahan, Framber Valdez and Chris Sale, righties Zach Eflin, Jeffrey Springs and Cristian Javier).

▶ No binding judgments or conclusions are being made here.

That said, the Tigers need Javier Báez to start producing at the plate. Plain and simple.

In a lineup filled with young, albeit talented hitters — some, like Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, are taking their second pass through the league; others, like Matt Vierling and Nick Maton, are in a new league and getting their first opportunity to be everyday players — the Tigers need an aircraft carrier.

They need a proven, productive hitter that can carry the younger fleet through the inevitable turbulence. Miguel Cabrera isn’t going to be that guy, at age 40. Austin Meadows, coming back off a broken season, hasn’t hit a home run in 168 plate appearances and knocked in 13 runs in 42 games in a Tigers uniform. Getting there, hopefully. Not there yet.

It has to be Báez. He has the tools and the track record to be that guy. It’s why the Tigers invested six years and $140 million in him.

He wasn’t that guy for the first three months last season, but from July 6 on, 77 games, he hit 10 homers and knocked in 40 with a .263 batting average and a .730 OPS. Not overwhelming, certainly, but even that level of production would pump up the ferocity of this Tigers lineup.

But, not this. Not what we’ve seen through seven games (please review the disclaimers at the top). Báez is 2-for-25, two singles, with six strikeouts. He’s put 19 balls in play, 52.6% of them on the ground. According to Statcast, he’s not hit one barrel. Meaning he has not hit a ball with an exit velocity of at least 98 mph with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees.

His average launch angle on those 19 balls he’s put in play is 9.8 degrees. His average exit velocity is a tepid 85.4 mph. He has a hard-hit rate of 21%. He’s 0-for-11 on fastballs. Of the 92 pitches he’s seen, he chased 46% of them and missed 33%.

And feeding his low hard-hit rate, he’s made contact — generally, weak contact — on 58% of the balls he’s chased out of the strike zone.

He’s 1-for-11 versus lefties, against whom he’s produced a .290 average, a .525 slugging percentage and an .867 OPS over his career. He’s 1-for-14 against righties.

To be fair, when we talk about production, he’s only had four at-bats with runners in scoring position and he cashed in one. He also has two walks already, which is noteworthy. He’s competing his tail off in the batter’s box.

And, Báez has played brilliantly at shortstop. No issues there. He’s a plus-2 defensive runs saved and plus-2 outs above average. Torkelson has picked a couple of his throws out of the dirt, but Baez’s one error was a throw that seemed to be on target, even though Torkelson stepped off the base to catch it.

Let’s be clear, too, Báez isn’t the only reason the Tigers are off to a 2-5 start. Not by a long shot. The Tigers’ bullpen, which has already logged 27.2 innings (33.1 by the starting pitchers), has allowed nine of 15 inherited runners to score.

That won’t cut it, either.

But, the margin for error, just like last season, remains razor-thin. And that’s on the offense. Just seven games in (re: disclaimer), the Tigers rank 25th in baseball in runs scored (21), 29th in batting average (.201), last in on-base percentage (.257), 28th in slugging (.301) and have the third most strikeouts (70).

Those are all categories that Báez can impact quickly and positively. Just as he showed in the World Baseball Classic, when, over a five-game spree, he went 7-for-19 with three doubles, a home run and six RBI for Team Puerto Rico.

That’s the guy the Tigers need — and the sooner, the better. Of course, it’s early, but the schedule doesn’t relent. And this club isn’t good enough from top to bottom to dig out of a deep, deep hole.

chris.mccosky@detroitnews.com

Twitter: @mccosky

Red Sox at Tigers

When: 4:10 p.m. Saturday, Comerica Park

TV/Radio: BSD/97.1

Notable: The Tigers on Friday took infielder Tyler Nevin (oblique) off the injured list and optioned him to Triple-A Toledo. During his rehab stint, he went 11-for-18 with three doubles, a triple and a home run.

Scouting report

RHP Tanner Houck (1-0, 5.40), Red Sox: He’s added a 90-mph cutter to his sinker-slider mix, and it’s been an effective counter to left-handed hitters. The Orioles went 1-for-7 against it, with a 33% whiff rate. He throws his slider, his best pitch, out of the same slot, holding hitters to a .152 average last season with a 37.3% whiff rate.

LHP Joey Wentz (0-1, 5.06), Tigers: He made his season debut against an all-right-handed-hitting Rays lineup in Tampa and allowed only a home run to Randy Arozarena through five innings. He faltered a bit in the sixth (two more runs were charged to him) but he showed well. His changeup was a big weapon against the righties and will have to be again against Red Sox right-handers like Justin Turner and Adam Duvall.

Twitter: @cmccosky

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