Every team’s projected 2023 HR leader

Detroit Tigers

It’s about that time again. With baseball’s return just around the corner, we can’t help but throw around predictions for the 2023 season. This year, more projections than usual are likely to center around home run totals — after all, this time last year, did anyone have Aaron Judge hitting 62?

But maybe speculating isn’t your thing. Thanks to FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, here we have a breakdown of each club’s projected home run leader for the 2023 season, plus a guy you should keep an eye on as the season progresses.

Before you go, though, take note — most projections are conservative by nature and aren’t designed to predict outstanding seasons.

Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (39)
Guerrero had some issues hitting the ball in the air last season, but he still absolutely mashed, hitting 32 home runs after leading baseball with 48 in 2021.

Keep an eye on … Brandon Belt (14): Belt hit a career-high 29 home runs in 97 games in 2021 — so who’s to say his elusive first 30-homer season couldn’t come in Toronto?

Orioles: Anthony Santander (29)
Santander had his first 30-homer season in 2022 — he hit 33 — and on another exceptionally young squad, he’s projected to lead the pack again in ’23.

Keep an eye on … Kyle Stowers (14): Stowers led all Orioles Minor Leaguers with 27 home runs in 2021 and has a shot at a regular role in Baltimore in ’23.

Rays: Brandon Lowe (27)
Nothing earth-shattering here — Lowe hit 39 home runs in 2021, and should he return to full health, it’s safe to assume he can anchor the Rays’ light-hitting lineup in ’23.

Keep an eye on … Jose Siri (17): Siri has shown some impressive pop in the Minors. Ahead of the Deadline deal that sent him to Tampa Bay, he hit nine homers in his last 16 Triple-A games.

Red Sox: Rafael Devers (32)
Devers has led the Red Sox in home runs for three consecutive seasons, and now that he’s signed until 2033, that’s not likely to change for a while.

Keep an eye on … Triston Casas (19): Boston is likely to lean on Casas at first base, which should give him plenty of time to harness the raw power that has him ranked MLB’s No. 23 prospect.

Yankees: Aaron Judge (44)
We’re not surprised. Neither are you. Steamer’s projections have the AL’s new home run king following his record-breaking 2022 season by leading the Majors with 44 homers in 2023.

Keep an eye on … Anthony Volpe (10): Baseball’s No. 5 overall prospect has developed serious pop in his time as a professional and even has an outside chance at becoming the Yankees’ Opening Day shortstop.

Guardians: José Ramírez (30)
It’s been three seasons since anyone other than Ramírez led the Guardians in home runs, so this shouldn’t come as a shock. Steamer predicts Ramírez will reach the 30-homer mark in 2023 after just missing it in ’22.

Keep an eye on … Mike Zunino (15): Though sidelined for most of 2022, a healthy Zunino has as much pure power as anyone.

Keep an eye on … Nick Pratto (13): He may struggle to find playing time behind Pasquantino, but Pratto has a ton of power at his disposal if he can carve out space for himself.

Tigers: Javier Báez (22)
The Tigers, who didn’t have a single player hit 20 home runs in 2022, are projected to have two in ‘23 — Báez and Austin Meadows (20).

Keep an eye on … Eric Haase (12): Haase has averaged 18 home runs in 104 games over the past two seasons, and he is likely to get a great deal of playing time.

Twins: Byron Buxton (32)
Buxton played just 92 games last season and still led the Twins with 28 home runs. It’s safe to say that, should he get a full healthy 2023 campaign, he’s pretty likely to do it again.

Keep an eye on … Joey Gallo (20): He’s coming off a season he’d rather forget, but Gallo is just 29 — so there’s no real reason he couldn’t get back to his 40-homer glory in Minnesota.

White Sox: Eloy Jiménez (31)
Jiménez is reportedly feeling healthy after two consecutive injury-plagued seasons, so 31 homers, which would match his personal best, could seem a conservative estimate by season’s end.

Keep an eye on … Yoán Moncada (17): Moncada has never quite matched the great numbers from his breakout 2019 season, but he’s just 27.

Angels: Mike Trout (39) 
Trout managed to hit 40 home runs in 119 games in 2022, so 39 in a healthy season seems pretty reasonable. (Before you ask, Shohei Ohtani is just on his heels, projected to hit 35.)

Keep an eye on … Jared Walsh (20): Walsh fell off the radar last season due to a persistent injury, but he’s since undergone surgery to alleviate symptoms of thoracic outlet syndrome.

Astros: Yordan Alvarez (36) 
Since his 2019 debut, Alvarez has set a ludicrous home run pace, averaging 43 per 162 games.

Keep an eye on … Jeremy Peña (21): His approach can be over-aggressive at times, but Peña’s pull-side power only stands to improve as he matures.

Athletics: Ramón Laureano / Seth Brown (22) 
Brown led the A’s in home runs in 2023, and while Laureano hasn’t topped 100 games since 2019, he was on a 22-homer pace through 94 in ’22.

Keep an eye on … Jesús Aguilar (17): Aguilar has a few huge seasons behind him — including a 2018 campaign in which he hit 35 homers.

Mariners: Julio Rodríguez  (32) 
Seattle’s offense already revolves around 22-year-old Rodríguez — so it’s all good news here for the Mariners.

Keep an eye on … Jarred Kelenic (15): The Mariners are still waiting for everything to click for Kelenic, but his odds do look better after a Triple-A campaign in which he hit .295/.365/.557 with 18 home runs in 86 games.

Rangers: Adolis García / Corey Seager (27) 
Texas’ 2022 team leaders in home runs (Seager) and RBIs (García) are projected to keep powering the Rangers in ’23.

Keep an eye on … Mitch Garver (16): He’s probably not the guy who slugged .630 in 2019, but assuming good health, matching the .517 mark he posted in 2021 seems a reasonable goal.

Braves: Austin Riley (35) 
Riley has been one of the best hitters in the NL for two seasons, so it’d be nothing shocking if he followed up 33- and 38-homer seasons with another 35.

Keep an eye on … Michael Harris II (22): The reigning NL Rookie of the Year hit 19 home runs in 114 games in 2022, a 27-homer pace.

Marlins: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (27) 
We’ve yet to see Chisholm play a full, healthy season, but he did hit 14 home runs in just 60 games in 2022.

Mets: Pete Alonso (39) 
As per usual, Alonso is projected to knock the cover off the ball in 2023 and radically outpace any of his teammates — Francisco Lindor’s 24 homers rank second in Steamer’s projections.

Keep an eye on … Francisco Álvarez (6): MLB’s No. 3 prospect has outrageous power and stands a good chance of displacing the Mets’ more experienced catching options.

Nationals: Joey Meneses (27) 
One of baseball’s biggest surprises in 2022, Meneses’ 13 home runs in 56 games bodes well for his production in 2023.

Keep an eye on … Stone Garrett (10): The 27-year-old has spent the last two seasons putting up outstanding power numbers in the Minors and should have the opportunity to compete for playing time here.

Phillies: Kyle Schwarber (39) 
The NL’s 2022 home run king is projected to lead the league for a second straight season, tied with Alonso.

Keep an eye on … Darick Hall (12): He hit 28 home runs in 101 Triple-A games in 2022, then another nine in 42 with the Phillies.

Brewers: Rowdy Tellez (30)
With Hunter Renfroe moving on to the Angels, Tellez is the Brewers’ primary power threat, projected to reach 30 homers for the second straight season.

Keep an eye on … Jesse Winker (16): His slugging percentage dropped over 200 points in 2022, but better things should be ahead after his move to Milwaukee.

Cardinals: Nolan Arenado / Paul Goldschmidt (29)
It’s certainly no surprise to see St. Louis’ pair of 2022 NL MVP Award finalists here. Goldschmidt and Arenado also finished 1-2 on the club in homers last year, both reaching or surpassing the 30 mark.

Keep an eye on … Jordan Walker (12): MLB’s newly minted No. 4 overall prospect has massive power potential, if he can nail down a regular job.

Cubs: Seiya Suzuki (25)
Suzuki’s power didn’t shine in his otherwise strong rookie campaign, but he did hit 38 home runs in his final season with NPB’s Hiroshima Carp in 2021, so the potential is certainly there.

Keep an eye on … Cody Bellinger (18): Bellinger has a good opportunity to reestablish himself as a legitimate power threat as the Cubs’ primary center fielder — assuming he’s healthy.

Pirates: Oneil Cruz (27)
Cruz has established himself as one of baseball’s most explosive young hitters, and given a nearly full season, he’s projected to approach the 30-homer mark.

Keep an eye on … Rodolfo Castro (15): There’s room for Castro to force his way into a starting role in Pittsburgh. In his second stint with the Pirates in 2022, he hit 10 home runs in 50 games.

Reds: Wil Myers (20)
Cincinnati’s most notable free-agent signing of the offseason, Myers hasn’t topped 20 home runs since hitting 30 in 2017.

Keep an eye on … Joey Votto (18): Injuries cut off his 2022 campaign, but don’t discount the possibility of another 2021-style resurgence for the 39-year-old.

D-backs: Christian Walker (28) 
Even expecting a full season from Corbin Carroll, Walker is likely to remain the D-backs’ primary slugger by a long shot.

Keep an eye on … Kyle Lewis (13): Injuries have derailed the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year, but he hit 15 home runs in 46 Minor League games in 2022.

Dodgers: Mookie Betts (31) 
Betts is projected to be the only Dodger to reach the 30-homer mark for the second straight season.

Keep an eye on … James Outman (16): Between Double-A and Triple-A last season, Outman hit 31 home runs in 125 games, and there should be room for him in the outfield.

Giants: Mitch Haniger (24) 
In his last healthy season, Haniger hit 39 home runs — but that mark is likely beyond reach with the move to Oracle Park.

Keep an eye on … Joey Bart (12): 2022 wasn’t a great year at the plate for the 26-year-old, but he’s still the guy who slugged .508 in the Minors.

Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. (35) 
Before his forgettable 2022, Tatis did lead the NL with 42 home runs in 2021.

Keep an eye on … Nelson Cruz (9): Having undergone surgery to correct vision problems in his left eye, Cruz could experience a return to form in 2023.

Rockies: C.J. Cron (27) 
The veteran has led the Rockies in this category for two seasons in a row and figures to have a good shot to extend that streak.

Keep an eye on … Michael Toglia (10): His playing time might depend on Cron himself, but in Toglia the Rockies have a guy who hit 30 home runs in the Minors in 2022.

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