Spring Training is in full swing as we gear up for the 2024 regular season. That means it’s a good time to look at projections for how things might turn out this year, and as usual, home runs are at the forefront of that discussion.
Courtesy of FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, we have a breakdown of each club’s projected home run leader for the 2024 season, along with a guy you should keep an eye on as a potential power source as the season progresses.
As a general reminder, projections are conservative by nature and aren’t designed to predict huge seasons.
Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (36)
2023 leader: Guerrero (26)
Guerrero led the Blue Jays in home runs for three straight seasons and is projected to do so again. Vlad Jr. hasn’t climbed back to his lofty heights of 2021 (48 home runs, 167 OPS+) but he’s entering his age-25 season and his batted-ball quality suggests he’s in line for a big 2024.
Keep an eye on … Daulton Varsho (24): He combined for 47 home runs in the last two seasons and could sneakily lead the Blue Jays in homers if Vlad Jr. performs similarly.
Orioles: Anthony Santander (29)
2023 leader: Santander/Gunnar Henderson (28)
Santander leads Orioles hitters with a combined 79 home runs since 2021 and has hit at least 28 in each of the last two seasons. The switch-hitter doesn’t impact baseballs like the game’s premier sluggers, but he excels at pulling fly balls — the optimal batted-ball outcome for producing power.
Keep an eye on … Jordan Westburg (11). The young infielder slugged .404 in his first stint in the Majors and hit 45 homers in the Minors from 2022-23.
Rays: Isaac Paredes (26)
2023 leader: Paredes (31)
Paredes used plus contact skills and an extreme pull power approach in a breakout 2023 season. He became the fourth player in the pitch-tracking era (since 2008) to pull all of his home runs in a 30-plus home run season. The contact quality isn’t spectacular, but it doesn’t need to be when you pull fly balls this much.
Keep an eye on … Junior Caminero (10): MLB Pipeline’s No. 4 overall prospect, Caminero has elite power and might hit 30-plus homers as a rookie if he’s up for more than 100 games.
Red Sox: Rafael Devers (36)
2023 leader: Devers (33)
Keep an eye on … Tyler O’Neill (22): O’Neill isn’t far removed from a 34-home run season in 2021 and should receive everyday at-bats in Boston.
Yankees: Aaron Judge (46)
2023 leader: Judge (37)
Judge is the undeniable home run king right now. He followed up his record-breaking 62 home runs in 2022 with 37 home runs in just 106 games in ’23. Assuming Judge is healthy for a full season, there’s no reason to believe that he won’t threaten for the third 50-home run season of his career.
Keep an eye on … Anthony Volpe (20): Thirty home runs is not out of the question for the talented Yankees shortstop in his second season.
Guardians: José Ramírez (28)
2023 leader: Ramírez (24)
Ramírez is as reliable as ever and continues to produce strong overall numbers. From a power perspective, he’s hit at least 23 home runs in every full season — excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season — since 2017. Ramírez has led Cleveland in home runs in each season since 2020.
Keep an eye on … Bo Naylor (14): After hitting 11 home runs in a 67-game debut in ’23, the younger Naylor could compete with his older brother Josh as the Guardians’ home run leader.
Royals: Bobby Witt Jr. (31)
2023 leader: Witt (30)
Witt broke out in 2023 when he became the first Royals player with a 30-30 season. The young star cut back on his strikeouts last season, allowing Witt to tap into his enormous raw power more frequently. Based on his trajectory and skills, he could threaten for 40 home runs.
Keep an eye on … Nelson Velázquez (19): Acquired at the 2023 Trade Deadline, Velázquez crushed 14 home runs in just 40 games.
Tigers: Spencer Torkelson (30)
2023 leader: Torkelson (31)
After hitting just 12 home runs in the first half last season, Torkelson had a power surge with 19 home runs in the latter half. The No. 1 pick from the 2020 Draft has always had the potential for 30-home run seasons and this might become a regular occurrence for the 24-year-old.
Keep an eye on … Colt Keith (14): Ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 22 overall prospect, Keith has plus hit and power tools to project for 20-plus homers on an annual basis.
Twins: Byron Buxton (29)
2023 leader: Max Kepler (24)
Injuries have frequently been a part of the picture for Buxton, who is an electric baseball player when he’s on the field, especially at the plate. Even if Buxton plays in 100 games, he’s a good bet for 25 home runs — possibly more if he stays healthy.
Keep an eye on … Matt Wallner (16): Wallner hit 14 home runs and slugged .507 in 76 games as a rookie while posting an elite 18.8 percent barrel rate.
White Sox: Luis Robert Jr. (33)
2023 leader: Robert (38)
Robert was a bright spot in a down 2023 season for the White Sox, clubbing 38 homers while finishing 12th in AL MVP voting. After dealing with injuries from 2021-22, the White Sox center fielder stayed healthy for 145 games and should surpass 30 homers again if he remains healthy.
Keep an eye on … Eloy Jiménez (29): Just 27 years old, Jiménez has flashed 30-home run potential like he did in his rookie season in 2019 (31 homers).
Angels: Mike Trout (36)
2023 leader: Shohei Ohtani (44)
With Ohtani leaving for the Dodgers, Trout is easily the top power threat on the Angels. Injuries have unfortunately become more frequent for the Angels superstar, but when he’s stayed relatively healthy, he’s produced plenty of power — like when he hit 40 homers in 119 games in 2022.
Keep an eye on … Logan O’Hoppe (22): If Trout is hampered by injuries again, O’Hoppe — who hit 14 homers in 51 games as a rookie last season — could lead the Angels in home runs as an everyday catcher.
Astros: Yordan Alvarez (39)
2023 leader: Alvarez (31)
Alvarez has blossomed into one of baseball’s best hitters since debuting in 2019, ranking third with a 165 OPS+ (min. 1,000 plate appearances) in that span. His prodigious power has produced at least 31 homers in each of his last three seasons and his first 40-home run season is within reach.
Keep an eye on … Yainer Diaz (21): Diaz hit 23 home runs as a rookie last season and will now step in as the Astros’ everyday catcher.
Athletics: Brent Rooker (26)
2023 leader: Rooker (30)
Acquired off waivers before the ’23 season, Rooker rewarded the A’s with a 30-home run season and an All-Star appearance. The 29-year-old looks poised to approach 30 homers yet again with everyday at-bats in the middle of the A’s lineup.
Keep an eye on … Zack Gelof (21): Gelof had an impressive rookie showing in ’23, hitting 14 homers with a 137 OPS+ in 69 games.
Mariners: Julio Rodríguez (33)
2023 leader: Rodríguez (32)
J-Rod is one of the true superstars in baseball and a true impact player in all facets of the game, especially from a power perspective. Rodríguez combined for 60 home runs in his first two seasons and should approach or exceed 30 home runs yet again in ’24.
Keep an eye on … Mitch Haniger (20): Back in Seattle after a year with the Giants, Haniger crushed 39 homers in his last healthy season with the Mariners in 2021.
Rangers: Adolis García (32)
2023 leader: García (39)
García stole the show in the 2023 postseason, winning ALCS MVP and helping the Rangers to their first World Series title. “El Bombi” combined to hit 47 home runs in 163 games between the regular season and the postseason. García hit 97 home runs from 2021-23 and is a good bet to lead the Rangers in homers again.
Keep an eye on … Wyatt Langford (17): One of baseball’s top prospects, Langford’s meteoric rise has him on the cusp of an MLB debut and spot in the middle of the Rangers lineup.
Braves: Matt Olson (41)
2023 leader: Olson (54)
Olson broke the Braves’ single-season record with his 54 home runs in what was an all-time performance from Atlanta’s offense. Since 2021, Olson’s 127 home runs trail only Judge’s 138 homers and the lefty slugger should approach 40 yet again in ’24.
Keep an eye on … Jarred Kelenic (17): A former top prospect, Kelenic is just 24 years old and might benefit from a change of scenery to one of baseball’s top lineups.
Marlins: Jake Burger (27)
2023 leader: Soler (36)
Burger — a 2017 first-round pick — broke out last season with 34 home runs for the White Sox and Marlins. The righty slugger ranked in the 89th percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and expected slugging percentage.
Keep an eye on … Bryan De La Cruz (18): Entering his age-27 season, De La Cruz has the offensive profile to possibly hit 25-30 homers in a season.
Mets: Pete Alonso (41)
2023 leader: Alonso (46)
Nobody has hit more home runs (192) than Alonso since he debuted in 2019. The two-time Home Run Derby champion has cleared 40 homers in consecutive seasons and has never finished with fewer than 37 home runs outside of the shortened ’20 season.
Keep an eye on … Francisco Alvarez (25): The young catcher clubbed 25 home runs in his rookie season and could take a step forward in his age-22 season.
Nationals: Lane Thomas (24)
2023 leader: Thomas (28)
It was a breakout season for Thomas, who posted a 20-20 season as the Nats’ top offensive performer. Given everyday at-bats for the first time in 2022, Thomas has hit a combined 45 home runs in that timeframe and looks like a good bet to clear 20 homers again.
Keep an eye on … James Wood (2): One of the Nats’ top prospects, Wood has made noise with a strong Spring Training and if he’s promoted quickly, he could hit double-digit homers in the Majors.
Phillies: Kyle Schwarber (42)
2023 leader: Schwarber (47)
Only Judge is projected to hit more homers than Schwarber and for good reason. Philadelphia’s slugging leadoff hitter has crushed 93 home runs in two seasons with the Phillies. Schwarber’s keen eye and elite power make him one of the game’s most feared power threats.
Keep an eye on … Alec Bohm (18): Bohm has made huge strides as a hitter and hit 20 homers for the first time in ’23.
Brewers: Rhys Hoskins (31)
2023 leader: Willy Adames (24)
After missing the entire 2023 season due to an ACL tear, Hoskins brings his 30-plus-homer pop to the Brewers following a six-year stint with the Phillies. Hoskins is the owner of 148 career home runs and has four seasons in which he’s hit at least 27 homers.
Keep an eye on … Jackson Chourio (16): One of baseball’s top prospects, Chourio could be an instant 20-20 threat in the Majors.
Cardinals: Nolan Arenado / Paul Goldschmidt (28)
2023 leader: Nolan Gorman (27)
A year after Goldschmidt won the NL MVP and Arenado finished third in voting, the two Cardinals hitters took a step back in 2023. If the Cardinals want to right the ship after an uncharacteristic last-place, 71-win season, they’ll need their two sluggers to perform closer to their career norms.
Keep an eye on … Jordan Walker (18): Entering his age-22 season, Walker could take a big step forward in his second year and hit 20-plus homers.
Cubs: Cody Bellinger / Christopher Morel (24)
2023 leader: Bellinger / Morel (26)
Bellinger and Morel tied for the team lead in home runs in 2023 and they’re projected to do so again in ’24. The recently re-signed Bellinger made wholesale changes in ’23 to make more consistent contact, while Morel has enormous raw power and could clear 30 homers.
Keep an eye on … Michael Busch (12): The former Dodgers top prospect hit 20 homers in each of the last two seasons at Triple-A and has that potential in the Majors.
Pirates: Bryan Reynolds / Oneil Cruz (25)
2023 leader: Jack Suwinski (26)
Reynolds has been a consistent everyday performer in Pittsburgh since debuting in 2019 and has strung together three straight 20-home run seasons. Cruz missed most of the 2023 season after fracturing his fibula but is fully healthy again and has the raw power to hit 30-40 homers.
Keep an eye on … Henry Davis (15): The former No. 1 overall pick is making noise this spring with loud contact and strong production that could carry over into a breakout season.
Reds: Matt McLain / Christian Encarnacion-Strand (24)
2023 leader: Spencer Steer (23)
The Reds have a plethora of young hitters who have the skills to lead the club in homers this season. McLain was superb as a rookie in ’23, finishing fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting thanks to a 129 OPS+ and 16 homers. Encarnacion-Strand, meanwhile, slugged 13 home runs in 63 games.
Keep an eye on … Noelvi Marte (14): Marte impressed in his first stint in the Majors in ’23 and has a well-rounded skillset to possibly lead the team in homers.
D-backs: Christian Walker (29)
2023 leader: Walker (33)
Walker has blossomed into one of baseball’s top first basemen, hitting a combined 69 home runs since 2022 while playing premium defense. Entering his age-33 season, there’s no reason why Walker shouldn’t approach 30 homers again and play his role as a reliable middle-of-the-order bat in Arizona.
Keep an eye on … Joc Pederson (20): Entering his first season with the D-backs, Pederson has five 20-homer seasons in his career and could add a sixth one in ’24.
Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani (40)
2023 leader: Mookie Betts (39)
Ohtani will strictly hit in his first season with the Dodgers, which could open the potential for an even bigger offensive season. The superstar has blossomed into one of baseball’s premier hitters and crushed 44 homers in 2023 before his season was cut short after 135 games.
Keep an eye on … Will Smith (22): Smith is one of baseball’s top catchers and has averaged 23 home runs a season since 2021.
Giants: Jorge Soler (32)
2023 leader: Wilmer Flores (23)
Keep an eye on … Marco Luciano (13): Penciled in as the Giants’ everyday shortstop, the 22-year-old Luciano has the raw power to possibly approach 20 homers.
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. (37)
2023 leader: Juan Soto (35)
Entering his age-25 season, Tatis is looking to return to his 2019-21 form. After missing the entire 2022 season, Tatis performed quite well last season (113 OPS+) but was not quite at his career norms (143 OPS+). He looks poised to have a big year in a Juan Soto-less Padres lineup.
Keep an eye on … Luis Campusano (17): Campusano is the clear-cut everyday catcher for the Padres and could hit 20 homers in his age-25 season.
Rockies: Nolan Jones (23)
2023 leader: Ryan McMahon (23)
Jones was a breakout star for the Rockies in ’23, posting a 138 OPS+ and a 20-20 season while playing quality defense. Jones has legit pop, ranking in the 94th percentile in barrel rate in ’23, which bodes well for a hitter who plays half of his games in the friendly confines of Coors Field.
Keep an eye on … Kris Bryant (21): It’s been a tough start to Bryant’s Rockies tenure, but he’s not far removed from a 25-home run season in ’21.