Of all the top free agents available this offseason, long-time Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman is one of the few that really makes sense for the Detroit Tigers. This is close to an ideal fit for them right now in terms of the player. Whether Bregman’s eventual contract fits the Tigers’ long-term plans is less clear.
We’ve already discussed some of the free agent hitters available to help balance out the heavily left-handed Tigers’ lineup. There are certainly plenty of options available in terms of simply adding offense, but few of them fit the Tigers roster and team philosophy very well. There are some slugging, right-handed hitting corner outfielders available, which fulfills the offensive need. But there’s less bang for your buck upgrading the Tigers outfield. It’s their strongest position group by a wide margin.
Much of the problem stems from the Tigers own decisions to stick with Javier Báez at shortstop in a platoon with Trey Sweeney, and their apparent willingness to see if Spencer Torkelson’s fourth season in the majors finally brings a sustainable breakout. That doesn’t allow a lot of room on the diamond for a big upgrade without forcing someone useful off the roster. The only open spot on the infield is at third base, so Bregman is really the only good fit for them as a result.
Writing for the New York Post last Thursday, Jon Heyman reported that the Tigers have expressed some degree of interest in signing Bregman. I don’t doubt the truth of that report, but it doesn’t mean a whole lot either. Scott Harris would be remiss if he didn’t at least explore the idea, and agent Scott Boras will be doing his best to create the sense of a bidding war with every inquiry. Heyman went on to add that the Astros have made an offer to keep Bregman in Houston, and the Yankees and others remain interested. At least the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants, at least, won’t be involved for once.
There’s nothing to suggest that the Tigers are front runners for Alex Bregman, or even seriously in the mix. We’ll just have to see how it plays out, but they certainly need to make a move this offseason, and there is an obvious fit being player and team.
Bregman suits the Scott Harris philosophy perfectly. He’s a smart, highly competitive player with tons of big game experience who plays a disciplined game and is regarded a key leader for the Astros. He typically walks as much as he strikes out, and he’s generally good for 25 home runs per season. His career walk rate in 11.9 percent. His career strikeout rate is one of the lowest marks in the game at 13.4 percent. Bregman has done this year in and year out, and while the peak power of his 2018-2019 seasons, when he hit 31 and then 41 homers, respectively, hasn’t held up since the ball was de-juiced, he continues to be a solid power threat who gets on base well, plays very good defense at third base, and is rarely out of the lineup.
Obviously the crucial question about Bregman is trying to guess when he’s going to start to decline. The 30-year-old shortstop is the anti-Javy Báez in most respects. Where the Tigers shortstop had every red flag in the book for a steep decline in his 30’s, Bregman looks like he can keep this up for a least a few more seasons.
His strikeout rate in 2024 was 13.6 percent, right in line with his career averages. His barrel rate was above average for his career, and he posted the highest hard hit percentage of his career at 40.1 percent. Bregman hardly ever swings and misses, and that too held up perfectly this season, with a 5.1 percent swinging strike rate that was better than his career average of 5.4 percent. The league average swinging strike rate in 2024 was 11.1 percent according to Sports Info Solutions. The average chase rate in 2024 was a 31.8 percent O-swing percentage, whereas Bregman posted a 22.2 percent mark.
Bregman makes a ton of contact, he doesn’t strike out much, and he’s still hitting the ball at least as hard as he has the past five years. He hit 26 homers in 145 games last year, posting a 118 wRC+. His peak exit velocity recorded in 2024 was 109.1 mph, the second best mark of his career. In terms of contact, all systems appear to be in good shape for him to go on like this for several years to come.
Will his power translate to Comerica?
So, there are two general concerns about a move to Detroit. First there’s the power production and park factors. Then we’ll look at his steep decline in walk rate this season.
If you’re worried that his home run totals rely on the Crawford Boxes, don’t be concerned. He’s hitting the ball as hard, and as often, as he every did. Take a look at his home run spray chart in 2024 overlaid on Comerica Park’s dimensions.
Now let’s just look at total fly balls from Bregman last year and overlay those against Minute Maid Park and Comerica Park. Making a home in Detroit might be better for him than you’d think in the power department.
Apart from the short porch holding the Crawford Boxes in left field, and Comerica’s slightly shorter porch in right field, the parks aren’t so dissimilar. It is possible that Bregman’s deep fly balls to right field might find their way over the wall in right field where they wouldn’t in Houston. It appears that the park’s would be pretty comparable overall, but there’s a chance he could actually pick up a couple of home runs playing half his games in Comerica. At worst, it should be a wash, with early season weather perhaps costing him a home run or two early, but making up for it with the shorter right field porch once warmed weather arrives.
The missing walks
The only hint that something might be amiss is found in Bregman’s 6.9 percent walk rate in 2024. He hadn’t posted a mark below 11 percent since 2017, when he was 23 years old. We noted that his chase rate increased a few points from elite to just very good this season while his swinging strike rate and called strike rate remained pristine. Those rare whiffs and chases appear to have come with two strikes a little more often in 2024. His overall contact rate on all swings was one of the best marks of his career, showing no sign of declining vision, bat speed, nor contact ability. Projection systems like ZiPS view this as a minor blip on the radar, forecasting a return to his typically good walk rate in 2025.
Bregman’s own explanation is in line with the Astros’ team philosophy of swinging aggressively at strikes. He told reporters back in June that the whole team was swinging too much and needed to get more selective. But while Bregman posted a 134 wRC+ in the second half as compared to a 109 wRC+ in the first half, his walk rate was actually worse in the second half of the season. So he was aware he needed to be more selective, but he didn’t implement the adjustment.
For his part, Bregman’s overall swing rate of 44.9 percent in 2024 was his highest since his rookie season in 2016. Typically, Bregman swings at about 40 percent of pitches thrown, so he definitely was more aggressive this year and it presumably cost him some walks. More particularly, he was less selective when behind in the count.
In counts that reached 2-2, he walked 9.4 percent of the time, and still posted a 126 wRC+. In 1-2 counts, he walked just 4.1 percent of the time and posted a 77 wRC+. And in counts that reached 0-2, he posted just a 0.9 percent walk rate and a 58 wRC+.
Hitters do worse with two strikes on them, at least outside of full counts. That’s not a surprise, but let’s compare those 2024 counts with his career marks in the same counts.
For his career, in counts that reached 2-2, he’s walked 16.2 percent of the time with a 118 wRC+. In 1-2 counts, he’s walked 8.9 percent of the time and posted a 74 wRC+. And in counts that start 0-2 for his career, he’s walked 5.2 percent of the time, and posted a 67 wRC+.
So, while Bregman’s overall production was fairly close to his career norms, there was a bit of slippage in how well he handled falling behind in counts. He chased a bit more often, and took a few more called strikes than usual. This looks like an overall team problem of trying to be too aggressive when behind in the count, and Bregman is quite good at adjusting his approach from year to year.
There’s also the matter of the elbow soreness and inflammation he dealt with in the second half. Bregman reported the issue in August and even sat out a couple of games to help resolve the swelling. Instead it bothered him the rest of the season. He ultimately had a bone chip removed from his elbow at the beginning of November, and should be in better shape with that behind him.
What the Tigers need to know is whether there’s any subtle decline in batspeed that may hit that this is age related. Unfortunately, while Statcast now has batspeed data in 2024, we don’t have the previous years of Bregman’s career with which to compare batspeed numbers.
We can assume that Bregman has never been that high up the batspeed board. He has basically average raw power, and gets his home runs by hitting the ball hard on good trajectories in the air, particularly to the pull field. He’ll occasionally drive one out to right field or over a center field wall, but that’s not really his game.
Bregman’s average batspeed of 71.4 mph puts him in company with Jose Ramirez, Colt Keith, and other good hitters who have plenty of juice, but don’t sell out for power very often. Bregman has a shorter path to the baseball that anyone near him in average batspeed, so he’s able to generate the same batspeed in a shorter arc, which bodes well for him continuing on for a few more years without significant decline.
Terms and conditions
To me, Alex Bregman looks little changed as a player. His power, contact ability, and his defense all look good. We can assume his prime years as a perennial All-Star are behind him, but Bregman should remain a good all around player for several more years to come. He has the underlying skills to manage his eventual decline better than most hitters. One would think that by his mid-30’s the power could decline to something like 10-15 home runs a year, but he should remain a strong on-base presence who hits for average. As long as his defense remains a strong component of his game though those years, the team that signs him is probably going to be happy with the decision to sign him.
So far, that defensive ability held up quite well in the first year of his 30’s. He posted a +6 in defensive runs saved (DRS) and outs above average (OAA) both in 2024.
Ultimately this is going to come down to what Bregman wants to do. If he’s basically set on staying in Houston, and his agents are just using the general inquiries of other teams for PR purposes to help drive up the price, there isn’t anything the Tigers are going to do about that. However, the Astros aren’t going to be giving Alex Bregman $250 million contract either. Heading into his age 31 season, Bregman is an affordable player for the Tigers, and they really should make a big push to try and convince him to sign in Detroit.
Obviously the distinct selling point the Tigers can offer is a Bregman/Hinch reunion. That at least guarantees that Bregman would be pretty happy with his manager if he signed with Detroit. The Tigers also have a talented young roster, an overall coaching staff with a strong reputation, a pretty great farm system, high end facilities, and most importantly a playoff run all going for them now. This is a much more attractive place to play than it was even just a year ago. That is probably enough to get Bregman to listen seriously, at least. But the Tigers are going to have to beat the other offers.
MLB Trade Rumors projects a contract of seven years, $182 million for Bregman. The Athletic says seven years, $185.5 million. Ben Clemens at FanGraphs projects more money per year than those year, but only five years, $140 million. Every one of those should be within the Tigers’ price range. They’re highly unlikely to stretch it much more, and of course it’s possible they even seen a contract at that level as a bad idea…at least in Bregman’s case.
If you believe Alex Bregman will fall off hard in a few more years, taking the shorter term deal and paying more per year is the way to go. $140 million for five years seems a bit light to me, but Bregman’s age is going to keep teams from going crazy here. He’s not going to approach Manny Machado or Rafael Devers’ money.
Jose Altuve signed a five-year extension worth $125 million last offseason. That deal takes him through 2029 with the Astros, when he’ll be 39 years old. Of course, Altuve is nearly four years older and not quite a productive as Bregman anymore, but he’s also Jose Altuve. It’s doubtful the Astros are willing to pay Bregman more than Altuve on a yearly basis. My best guess at a final Astros offer would be seven years, $175 million.
On Monday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Astros were offering six years, $156 million on Monday. Bregman’s camp reportedly wants a $200 million deal. The Yankees are linked as in pursuit of Bregman as a consolation prize for potentially losing Juan Soto to free agency, but that seems somewhat dubious anyway you slice it. If the Yankees can’t keep a future Hall of Fame hitter in his physical prime, are they even the Yankees? Imagine trying to tell fans that hey it’s okay we lost Juan Soto because we outbid the Astros for Alex Bregman.
Based on that report, a seven year, $175 million deal seems like the sweet spot, and unless the Tigers really feel like Bregman is due for a sharp decline soon, that’s a very reasonable price for him. Front load some of the deal over the next three years, and when Javier Báez comes off the books after the 2027 season, the Tigers will be in very good shape in the payroll department once again. In the meantime, they get pretty close to the ideal player for their current roster needs, and as he gets into his mid-30’s, there’s reason to think Bregman will age much like Ian Kinsler did and remain an average or better player in the final years of such a deal.
In the end, Alex Bregman is pretty doable considering the Tigers circumstances. There isn’t a likely better fit available in free agency both in terms of roster construction and payroll. So if Scott Harris can’t land him, the Tigers will probably have to pivot to trade ideas, or find a creative way to work a big bat into their positional group. Having a really successful offseason will be really difficult.
If Boras is able to drive the price up into that $200 million range and really does have the Yankees and others involved, this is probably going to get too rich for the Tigers’ blood. It’s hard to imagine them outbidding bigger market teams despite their need and payroll space. If interest and competition over Bregman isn’t actually that fierce, then the Tigers should have a decent shot at him without having to spend that much more than they spent on Javier Báez, and they should probably take it if they’re really serious about putting big upgrades on the field and trying to win a World Series. Of course, that’s easy for me to say. They need a Bregman, but they also can’t afford to miss on a significant deal until Báez clears the books.
There are rarely perfect solutions for small to mid market teams in free agency. Alex Bregman is as close as the Tigers are going to get this offseason.