The Tigers selected Madden out of the University of Texas back in 2021 with the 32nd overall pick in the competitive balance A round of the amateur draft. He was a fairly advanced college starter who threw 94-98 mph with a very pretty promising slider and decent versions of a cutter, changeup, and curveball.
Right away Madden was the Tigers most advanced pitching prospect in the system in the wake of the Skubal, Mize, Manning group graduating and Jackson Jobe still considerably more raw than Madden at the time. Unfortunately, some of the issues that dropped him from a potential mid-first round selection were apparent in pro ball early on and never really abated.
The fastball played down a little from its velocity, and while he had five pitches, only the fastball and the slider were consistent weapons and his command varied a lot from start to start. Finally, in 2024 he made a little breakthrough by developing a split-change that gave him a strong third weapon and something to tame left-handed hitters with. He struggled at Triple-A last spring, but settled down during the summer months enough to get called up by necessity in August. Madden then proceeded to show some growth by pitching fairly well for the Tigers in his 23 inning major league debut.
While Madden’s most likely path to consistent major league time is probably out of the bullpen, the Tigers probably won’t rush him this season. He has enough stuff to start, and he’s not wild. He just hasn’t been able to consistently locate well enough to avoid damage, particularly with the fastball. Out of the pen, he can probably sit 97-99 mph and use both the slider and the split to handle either handed hitters and handle multiple inning outings where required.
I don’t really do comps, but if you want a similar type of pitcher, think Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen always had a deep enough pitch mix to start and threw enough strikes, but a fastball that played down and inconsistent command kept him from developing into a full-time starting pitcher. Instead, he fit best in a swingman type role for most of his career. Only in his 30’s has he managed to control hard contact better and start regularly, but that’s come with a loss of strikeouts, leaving him just an average depth starter. A similar career trajectory for Madden seems a pretty good baseline expectation.
Ty Madden 2023-2024
| Season | IP | ERA | K% | BB% | HR/9 | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | IP | ERA | K% | BB% | HR/9 | FIP |
| 2023 (AA) | 118.0 | 3.43 | 29.7 | 10.2 | 1.22 | 3.94 |
| 2024 (AA) | 17.2 | 2.55 | 32.4 | 4.4 | 0.51 | 2.30 |
| 2024 (AAA) | 96.2 | 7.97 | 27.6 | 10.8 | 1.94 | 5.34 |
| 2024 | 23.0 | 4.30 | 16.8 | 7.9 | 0.78 | 3.99 |
The Tigers must be convinced that Ty Madden’s fastball problems are largely location, because they haven’t pushed him to become a sinkerballer. Perhaps they just don’t think it fits his delivery and release well either. He started throwing a few when he reached the major leagues, but it wasn’t something he used at all during his 96 2⁄3 innings at Triple-A last year.
When he was drafted there was more concern about fastball shape, as well as some shoulder trouble. Those issues dropped him out of the first round to the Tigers. Another minor factor is a lack of extension. He averaged 6.2 feet with his fourseamer last season against a major league average of 6.5 fee, so the fastball velocity does play down a little bit.
The fourseamer has improved in shape since draft day and small changes to his angle and release now produce a fastball that typically has a little better than average induced vertical break. He gets plenty of whiffs, particularly when he’s reaching back for 96-99 mph. However, he’s also given up a plenty of homers and extra base hits off the fastball in the upper levels of the minor leagues.
When Madden is throwing 97-99 mph and locating around the top of the zone, it’s a good fastball, but he can’t sit that high as a starter. At 93-95 mph cruising speeds, it’s an average fastball that will tend to get a good amount of whiffs and fouls when it’s located well, but was crushed by good minor league hitters when it wasn’t. He put up a nice 23.6 whiff rate on the fastball with the Mud Hens, and yet hitters posted a truly terrifying .471 wOBA and a .322 ISO against it anyway.
What Madden really has going for him is a plus slider that has always been his best secondary pitch, and a split-finger fastball that he developed last offseason and throughout the 2024 season. Moving through the system, left-handers were giving him some fits in the power department and his old changeup wasn’t getting it done. Madden and the Tigers developed a split-change variant that tumbles in there pretty well at 85 mph last spring. That pitch was a big emphasis for him, and it’s success was a big developmental step for him after a pair of solid but uninspiring seasons.
Rather than graduating him to Triple-A, the development staff then sent him for a return trip to Double-A Erie in April. Typically an advanced college pitcher from a big school would be expected to reach the majors in their third full year, health allowing. Madden was starting his third partial season playing for the Erie SeaWolves. The Tigers had a good reason though, as there was an specific task to accomplish. The Tigers wanted him to throw the split, develop some confidence in it and show he could use it to keep left-handers off balance, and then make the jump to Triple-A more prepared to succeed. He handled the first part of that assignment with flying colors, and quickly advanced to Triple-A Toledo.
It was a pretty rough go at the Triple-A level, and that can’t be ignored. Madden was still getting shelled in July before finally starting to compose himself in August and September. Of course, it was kind of a strange year for not only Madden, but Keider Montero and Brant Hurter as well. All three had success at the Double-A level in 2023 and were looked at as a solid group of depth options for the Tigers’ rotation or bullpen as needed. And yet all three struggled badly in the first half of 2024, and then beginning with Montero were called up out of necessity anyway and took much better to the major leagues.
Like the others, Madden pitched better at the major league level, with catching, defense, park factors, and the lack of the automated strike zone all playing some role in those results. Perhaps Fetter magic accounts for the rest, and of course we’re interested to see what the pitching coaches can do with Madden now that he’s in their hands.
2025 Outlook
Coming into spring camp, Madden will probably have an outside shot at the Tigers’ rotation. Injury always plays a role, and its not implausible that the best laid plan right now goes awry in Lakeland. Still the most likely scenario is that he starts the season in the Mud Hens rotation as potential support for the Tigers. Maybe he gets a shot, or maybe a spot opens up in the bullpen instead.
Right now it’s up to Ty Madden to prove that a move to the bullpen isn’t the best thing for him. Armed with a good slider and split-change combination, and still able to mix in the cutter or curveball here and there, Madden has plenty of weapons. He needs to really improve his fastball command to avoid taking too much damage on it and make the leap. If he can maintain that good movement and work the ball around the zone more effectively, there’s another level to unlock that could make Madden a viable mid-rotation starter. Otherwise, the margin of error provided by letting him throw 97+ in short outings is going to be necessary and a move to the pen imminent.
We’ll see how long it takes for the Tigers’ to decide. Madden turns 25 years old in a few weeks, and so a good spring camp is probably mandatory to keep the starting trajectory alive for now.