On Sunday night, the Tigers came through with a pretty good free agent signing. They brought back RHP Jack Flaherty on a two-year deal that could be worth as much as $45 million if he has a healthy season in 2025 and opts into the second year of the deal. The cost does little to limit the Tigers’ payroll flexibility for the long-term, and it could make them one of the top rotations in the American League.
The question now is about their remaining flexibility to address the offense. With Flaherty in the fold, the Tigers starting payroll is now at $142 million. FanGraphs’ roster resource estimates a luxury tax payroll figure of $156,530,417 for the 2025 season. Sure, that’s a long way down from Mike Ilitch’s halcyon days, but it also surpasses the $130 million they spent in 2022. That was their highest payroll since the teardown in 2017. In 2023 they spent $121 million, and in 2024, they spent $104 million.
On the plus side, much of the payroll is tied up in short term deals. Still, for example, adding Alex Bregman at $30 million per season would now take them to $172 million for the 2025 season. That just seems highly unlikely, despite the fact that their 2026 commitments are likely to check in close to $60 million entering next offseason. Could they afford Bregman long-term? Yes. Do I expect to see a $172 million payroll this season? Not until news breaks.
Of course, there’s still ongoing speculation that the Tigers are trying to sign Bregman. Buster Olney came right out with it only hours after the Flaherty deal was announced. Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic also opined about a recent vibe from the Tigers’ that feels like they’re still in the mix for Bregman. One would’ve thought otherwise, but it’s interesting that there’s still a strong feeling that this doesn’t alter their pursuit of the long-time Astros’ third baseman.
After signing Jack Flaherty and augmenting their rotation, the Tigers are one of the teams pursuing Alex Bregman.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 3, 2025
We also might consider who gets DFA’d off the 40-man roster to make room for Flaherty. RHP Mason Englert, SS Ryan Kreidler, and even RHP Matt Manning seem like the likeliest possibilities at this point. The Tigers can’t really afford to burn any middle infielders right now, so one would tend to think Englert gets dropped. Manning has really fallen off the radar, but he does have an option remaining and they still haven’t tried moving him to the bullpen yet.
What’s clear is that this is a nice upgrade to the roster. Jackson Jobe’s path to the rotation might be somewhat complicated now as he competes with Casey Mize and others for the fifth and final spot. Still, they have to get through camp without injuries so there’s no point deciding roster battles on paper right now. Adding Flaherty may also make it easier to use Brant Hurter, Ty Madden, or Keider Montero in the bullpen as needed. The top of the rotation is better, and so the depth is also quite a bit better.
The Tigers did make a modest improvement to their offense already by signing Gleyber Torres on a one-year deal to play second base. That move pushes Colt Keith to first base, and pushes Spencer Torkelson into no man’s land. Overall the duo of Torres and Keith should be much more productive by subtraction of Torkelson, but they may also give up a little bit defensively in the process. This is still a solid position player group rather than a really good one. Good seasons from Keith, or Parker Meadows too, could really help them break out above the pack in the AL Central. On paper though, they’re still an average group with upside that saw some positive developments down the stretch last year.
Long-time Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is still available. The two parties still seem likely to work something out eventually, and Alonso hasn’t really been strongly linked to any other teams in pursuit. However, the possibility at least exists that Alonso might end up doing the Flaherty here and taking a bit of a pillow contract to try and mash his way to a better long-term offer. The 30-year-old is a menace both on the basepaths and first base, and doesn’t really fit the Tigers well in particular. But he does post solid on-base numbers and crunch 35 home runs a year, which is nice. Maybe the Tigers could grab him for a year at $30 million with a player option for 2026, as they did Flaherty, but it would still seemingly them close to $170 million for 2025. This doesn’t seem to have any chance of happening, but until Alonso signs somewhere anything could happen.
The other option is to pick up a lefty masher who fits a very specific role on the roster. Outfielder Randal Grichuk is the most obvious answer in that capacity. Grichuk is still a fairly solid defensive outfielder at this point, and most importantly he does torch left-handed pitching, which could be helpful.
This isn’t a great fit for the Tigers either, despite Grichuk being inexpensive and likely to only get a one-year offer. Signing Grichuk necessarily pushes one of Andy Ibánez or Zach McKinstry off the roster, or keeps Jace Jung in the minor leagues a while longer. This isn’t the end of the world, and Ibáñez does have an option remaining, but losing Ibáñez just negates some of the addition of Grichuk in terms of hitting left-handed pitching.
Ibáñez hit .292/.357/.445 against left-handed pitching in 2024, posting a 130 wRC+ with four home runs in 154 plate appearances. He did nothing against right-handers.
Grichuk hit .319/.386/.528 against left-handed pitching last year, posting a 151 wRC+ and six home runs in 184 plate appearances. There’s certainly an upgrade there, and Grichuk is still a decent hitter against right-handers. He was protected from tougher right-handers, getting only 91 plate appearances, but he did hit six homers and put up a 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitching last year. That’s unlikely to continue but he’s at least clearly better than Ibáñez against right-handed pitching when called on.
So Grichuk could potentially be a little better for the offense. If the Tigers decided to sign him I’d be fine with that. Against left-handers, the ability to have Grichuk in right field, Vierling at third base, and Torres probably brings more lefty mashing ability than playing Vierling in right field, Ibánez at third base, and Torres at second base. I just don’t see it as that much of an upgrade. In A.J. HInch’s hands, however, that could certainly be situationally valuable.
Beyond Bregman, it’s just hard to find a free agent or even an obvious trade that really makes the team two or three wins better. Forcing another move just to do something isn’t worthwhile. We can have some fun and imagine trading the immensely talented Luis Robert Jr. from a White Sox organization that has been a wreck the past few years. The cost there, particularly in the division, would be exorbitant for Robert’s final guaranteed contract year and team options for 2026 and 2027, but that would make for one heck of an outfield group with him beside Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Parker Meadows for the next few seasons.
Best not to dream. Coming off a down year the White Sox would probably prefer to hold on until the trade deadline and hope Robert has a really strong first half. They’ll be able to command quite a price if that’s how things play out.
In truth, we don’t usually see many bigger deals like a Robert trade coming in February and March. It’s just not that easy to see a significant trade that really suits the Tigers’ purposes developing between now and Opening Day. Deals like the oft mentioned Torkelson for the Mets’ Brett Baty trade, are just sort of challenge trades hoping a change of scenery helps each player reset after a rough start to their major league careers. They don’t really move the needle in terms of the team’s realistic chances to compete for a title in 2025. Sure the Tigers could move Torkelson. They could decide to trade Casey Mize in a deal for a hitter. It’s just that a big trade for an impact player is highly unlikely.
I would guess, that apart from building in some depth with minor league signings, and possibly snagging one more reliever, the Tigers are probably going into the season with the current 40-man roster unless they absolutely stun me and sign Alex Bregman too. Scott Harris continued to insist that they were still looking for more help for the offense last week. And the Tigers have continued to be linked to Alex Bregman talks along with the Astros, Red Sox, and possibly the Blue Jays.
The Tigers payroll for 2025 would take a brief hit if they signed Bregman, but beyond this season they can absorb it comfortably, without hampering their ability to add rental help each offseason. The Tigers long-term payroll commitments are pretty meager right now. Báez comes off the books in three more seasons, and right now he represents almost half of the projected 2026 payroll before arbitration raises to eligible players. Some of those raises will become significant in the case of Skubal, and eventually Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter, but by then Báez will be paid in full.
The Tigers could sign Bregman and still add pitching next offseason, and even with arbitration raises keep the payroll below $140 million. They just have to be willing to push in their chips for one season. By 2026-2027, they’re very likely to have another big wave of talent coming up from the farm system.
When the Tigers signed Jack Flaherty my initial reaction was that this ended the Bregman speculation. But speculation is hard to kill off, and it was notable that both national and local beat writers were immediately opining that the Tigers were still in the Bregman sweepstakes, and that Flaherty was just an opportunity that developed and couldn’t be passed up. So clearly we’re not done with this yet.
If that doesn’t happen, the Tigers are probably best served holding pat and waiting until the trade deadline to really make another move. Perhaps a trade could develop before Opening Day, but more likely they’ll just try to win with pitching and take more time to evaluate their young hitters. Perhaps by July they’ll come up with something big. For now, let’s just hope the Bregman story comes to a conclusion shortly.