Editor’s note: This is the 12th in a weekly series of stories in which Detroit News freelance writer Lynn Henning will rank the top prospects in July’s MLB Draft.
That crafty, caring head coach at Vanderbilt, Tim Corbin, knew exactly what he was doing two weeks ago.
He decided to give Jack Leiter a week off. It was a kind of spring break for the best amateur pitcher in America and maybe the first player who will be taken when the MLB Draft convenes on July 11.
Others could wonder as May arrived whether Leiter was slipping, even nosediving, after three off-kilter starts that followed two months of pristine college pitching.
Corbin insisted two weeks ago that he simply needed Leiter to “be a sophomore.” It was a coach’s way of keeping Leiter’s innings from damaging one of the more talented right arms MLB scouts have recently seen, something confirmed when Leiter threw a dynamic six innings of baseball Saturday at the University of Mississippi: two hits, one run, three walks, 13 strikeouts.
This classified as good news for Leiter, for Vanderbilt, and for either of two MLB teams — the Pirates and Rangers — likely to swoop up Leiter with the first- or second-overall pick on July 11.
It also no doubt cheered Tigers bird-dogs who seem increasingly fixated on Marcelo Mayer, a shortstop out of Eastlake High in Chula Vista, California, just outside of San Diego.
It is known the Tigers have been checking in on Mayer, en masse. Along with area scouts and cross-checkers, Tigers assistant general manager David Chadd has been making introductions and applying his old scouting-director eye to Mayer.
The Tigers as well as a large band of Pirates and Rangers scouts were there Thursday night, against Hilltop High, as Mayer whacked three solo home runs in three at-bats.
Why, exactly, Hilltop pitched to Mayer and invited such demolition from a left-handed masher’s bat is tied to Hilltop coach Kurt Gritts.
Gritts has won more than 300 games as head coach and isn’t into metrics or analytics — or, perhaps, cowardice — that would suggest a better way to handle a player of Mayer’s skill: putting him on first base rather than allowing him a chance to cross home plate, which he did three times after clouting his Thursday night bombs.
The homers were the 11th, 12th, and 13th Mayer has hit in 22 games, during which an 18-year-old who is 6-foot-3, 188 pounds, has batted .444, with a .598 on-base average and a 1.111 slugging percentage, which amounts to a 1.709 OPS.
And, of course, to looming first-round — very early first-round — status.
There is debate yet, which is more a lack of finality, about how the Pirates, Rangers, and Tigers will sort out those first three choices on July 11.
There is also the matter of how catcher Henry Davis of Louisville and Leiter’s compadre at Vanderbilt, a right-handed man of mayhem known as Kumar Rocker, might yet weave their way into the draft’s top three picks.
But with Jordan Lawlar of Dallas Jesuit High continuing to dazzle scouts with his surpassing athleticism, it seems as if Lawlar is competing only with a revived Leiter to rank as the draft’s premier pair of candidates.
The Tigers will let them Pirates and Rangers hash that matter out. Then, if all follows mid-May’s script, Detroit appears closer and closer perhaps to making Mayer their man.
How the nation’s best high school and college players stack up ahead of July’s MLB Draft:
► 1. Jack Leiter, RH pitcher, Vanderbilt, 6-1, 205: So, we can for now table cardiac-arrest alerts within the Leiter family and among scouts (Pirates, Rangers, etc.) who were counting on Leiter being healthy and available for at least one of those first two 2021 draft slots. Leiter came back from a nervous week of rest and destroyed Ole Miss batters Saturday, in classic Leiter fashion: six innings, two hits, one run, three walks, 13 strikeouts. If the Pirates somehow decide against him at No. 1 overall, the Rangers won’t pass with that second pick. Last week’s ranking: 1
► 2. Kumar Rocker, RH pitcher, Vanderbilt, 6-4, 255: He may not be drafted second, but his cachet remains such that Rocker could find himself a semi-surprise pick for any of the earliest draft-day clubs. He preceded Leiter’s bounce-back start with some nice work of his own Friday against Ole Miss: seven innings, five hits, three earned runs, one walk, eight strikeouts — all with an acceptable 99 pitches. Last week’s ranking: 2
More: Vanderbilt has pair of aces; could one be in the cards for Tigers in MLB Draft?
► 3. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High, Chula Vista, California, 6-3, 188: He hit three home runs Thursday night, which didn’t displease the Tigers scouting contingent who joined a multitude of MLB snoops who love Mayer’s left-handed swing and two-way comportment. The Tigers are in deep with Mayer. Health and appraisals change, but for now, Mayer looks like Detroit’s man. Last week’s ranking: 3
► 4. Henry Davis, C, University of Louisville, 6-1, 205: Nothing much changes with Davis. He gets a standard weekend home run or two. He draws a couple of walks. He scarcely strikes out. He gets his hits, in one or more weekend games. He’s going to make someone (probably the Red Sox) a nifty, ever-damaging hitter, with The Green Monster likely to be tattooed many times by the right-handed bashing Davis. Last week’s ranking: 4
► 5. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Dallas Jesuit High, 6-2, 180: Lawlar will be picked earlier than he’s ranked, which could mean the Detroit News appraiser will have some ‘splainin’ to do. Here’s the qualm, the only qualm, about the most gifted athlete among all the shortstops eligible for July 11 selection: Lawlar still looks as if he’ll have some issues with professional pitching. That doesn’t put him in exclusive company, but the Tigers probably trust Mayer’s swing a bit more and won’t mind seeing Lawlar picked more quickly. Last week’s ranking: 5
► 6. Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High, Winder, Georgia; 6-3, 212: His season is done, which probably doesn’t bother House, or his “representative” (amateur rules about “agents” is the hang-up in nomenclature). House turns 18 next month. It’s looking as if the Orioles will land a man who with his big right-handed bat will find Camden Yards particularly cozy. Last week’s ranking: 6
► 7. Jackson Jobe, RH starter, Heritage Hall High, Oklahoma City, 6-2, 190: Jobe, too, is sitting pretty now that Heritage Hall’s season is a wrap. Jobe helped there with deft work in Friday’s semifinal game: six innings, three hits, 13 strikeouts. A very powerful, very polished prep arm here. Last week’s ranking: 7
► 8. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High, Wake Forest, North Carolina; 5-11, 168: Watson is no newcomer to the 2021 top 10 discussion. He bats left-handed and has all the requisite talents, with the only issue being that Wake Forest High didn’t begin playing games until three weeks ago. Still, that .588 batting average and .696 on-base percentage, spiced by one homer, one triple, and a double in 23 plate-appearances, testify to Watson’s profile. And to possibilities he could climb higher in these waning weeks. Last week’s ranking: Unranked
► 9. Sam Bachman, RH starter, Miami (Ohio), 6-1, 235: Nothing special about Bachman’s weekend start at West Virginia: five innings, eight hits, one walk, six strikeouts. But there’s something about a 100-mph fastball that makes one relatively mediocre start indeed relative. Last week’s ranking: 9
► 10. Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State, 6-3, 195: A couple of ongoing issues with Cowser: The pitching he has seen is not quite SEC (or Big 12) quality. Also, scouts aren’t altogether sure his power potential stacks up. Still, in an underwhelming 2021 draft, Cowser will be someone’s first-round pick, with top 10 a steady possibility. Last week’s ranking: Unranked
► Dropped from Top 10 inclusion: Gunnar Hoglund, RH starter, University of Mississippi, 6-4, 210 (scheduled for Tommy John surgery); Ryan Cusick, RH starter, Wake Forest, 6-6, 235.
► Pushing for Top 10 inclusion: Cusick; Matt McLain, SS, UCLA, 5-11, 180; Ty Madden, RH starter, Texas, 6-3, 215; Bubba Chandler, RH starter/SS, North Oconee High, Bogart, Georgia; Alex Binelas, 1B, Louisville, 6-3, 225; Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama, 6-1, 210; Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College, 5-9, 175; Alex Mooney,SS, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s, 6-1, 175; 0; Jud Fabian, OF, Florida, 6-foot, 190; Jonathan Cannon, RH starter, Georgia, 6-6, 207; Mason Black, RH starter, Lehigh, 6-3, 200; McCade Brown, RH starter, Indiana, 6-6, 225; 6-4; Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami (Florida), 5-11, 210; James Wood, OF, IMG Academy, 6-6, 230; Cody Schrier, SS, JSerra Catholic High, San Juan Capistrano, California.
Lynn Henning is a freelance writer and former Detroit News sports reporter.