Detroit Tigers after All-Star break: 8 storylines to watch in second half of season

The Detroit Tigers entered the All-Star break 15 games behind the first-place Chicago White Sox and seven games back from second-place Cleveland in the American League Central.

Following an abysmal 8-19 record in April, the Tigers (40-51) finished 14-13 in May and 14-13 in June, giving new life to a team crawling out of the rebuild. They are 4-6 so far in July as they look for their third consecutive winning month. 

The upcoming schedule reveals an opportunity to climb up the standings: four games against the Minnesota Twins (39-50), four against the Texas Rangers (35-55), three against the Kansas City Royals (36-53), three more against the Twins and four against the Baltimore Orioles (28-61).

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Here are the eight storylines to follow as the Tigers get ready for the second half:

So you’re saying there’s a chance?

Playoffs? Probably not.

But it seems silly, after everything we’ve seen, to eliminate Hinch and Co. from a spot in the postseason. It’s crazy and unlikely, but the Tigers have a 31-27 record since May 8 and they’re 11-9 since June 20, putting them 11½ games back in the wild-card hunt.

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The opponents only get tougher in August and September, but the Tigers could enter the wild card conversation by Aug. 1, when the series with the Orioles — the worst team in baseball — concludes. (First, they have to end their current four-game losing streak.)

According to FanGraphs, the Tigers still have a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs, but everything could change if they finsh July with a winning record in the month.

Rookie of the Year (x2)

There’s no storyline as important as winning, but Akil Baddoo deserves extra attention. What Baddoo has accomplished remains unbelievable: 22 years old, Rule 5 draft pick and no experience above High-A in the minor leagues.

Yet Baddoo is still in the big leagues, and he’s only getting better.

He is hitting .271 with 14 doubles, four triples, six home runs, 28 RBIs, 27 walks and 67 strikeouts. Since June 23, Baddoo has served as the primary leadoff hitter. He has a .316 batting average, 23 walks and 32 strikeouts in his past 45 games.

[ Why Detroit Tigers rookie Akil Baddoo ‘could be here to stay for a long time’ ]

It’s time to talk about Baddoo as an AL Rookie of the Year candidate. Put right-hander Casey Mize in the conversation, too, considering he has carried the starting rotation following injuries to veterans Spencer Turnbull and Matthew Boyd. Lefty Tarik Skubal can’t be far behind, either.

Mize, 24, has a 3.59 ERA, 27 walks and 77 strikeouts over 95⅓ innings in 17 starts. His 10 quality starts tie him for seventh-best among AL starting pitchers. His 2.7 WAR places him 19th among the same group.

Although Mize owns a 5-5 record, the Tigers have won 10 of 17 games with him on the mound. Entering the second half, he is in the mix with Adolis Garcia (Rangers) and Luis Garcia (Houston Astros) near the top of the AL Rookie of the Year race.

Trade deadline

With the MLB draft and All-Star Game in the books, the biggest date is the July 30 trade deadline.

Many players could generate interest, but that doesn’t mean they will be shipped away for pennies on the dollar: Boyd, first/second baseman Jonathan Schoop, right-handed reliever Jose Cisnero, left-handed reliever Gregory Soto, righty reliever Michael Fulmer and third baseman Jeimer Candelario.

Schoop is on an expiring contract after this season. He re-upped with the Tigers for one year and $4.5 million in February. Even he might stick around, which is a different approach than the organization took during the worst years of the rebuild.

Allow Hinch to explain.

“When you get to this point and you’re under .500, everybody thinks they can come and pick the players that are free agents, or you can come get a bullpen arm — what is deemed to be cheap additions for other teams,” Hinch said Tuesday on MLB Network Radio. “Where we’re sitting, it’s like, you have to come and pay for our guys if you’re going to come and get our guys. We are trying to develop winners here. We’re trying to maintain a high standard for us.”

SKIPPER SPEAKS: AJ Hinch on MLB trade deadline: ‘You have to come and pay for our guys’

Sounds like the price needs to be just right.

Miggy’s milestones 

Entering the All-Star break, Miguel Cabrera is 73 hits away from No. 3,000 and six home runs from No. 500. He started the season slow and went to the injured list with a left biceps strain but has bounced back to produce a .241 batting average, seven homers, 32 RBIs, 19 walks and 74 strikeouts in 68 games.

Since June 1, Cabrera is hitting .308 with five doubles, three home runs and 15 RBIs in 31 games. (From April 1 through May 31, Cabrera had a .184 batting average, 25 hits and four homers across 37 games.)

Reaching 3,000 hits remains unlikely this season but getting to 500 home runs should happen. He pounded two homers May 21 against the Royals at Kauffman Stadium and homered to the opposite field twice in a three-game span against Cleveland at Progressive Field.

[ How Miguel Cabrera turned back the clock, at least somewhat, in June ]

Cabrera’s home runs seem to come in bunches with not much power in between. He might be swinging for the fences until September, but the 19-year MLB veteran showed enough pop in the first half of the season to set himself up for a marquee milestone down the stretch.

Once 2022 rolls around, 3,000 hits shouldn’t be far away.

Matt Manning’s development

Right-hander Matt Manning has a 6.95 ERA, eight walks and nine strikeouts over 22 innings (five starts). The 23-year-old rounds out the Mize-Skubal-Manning future starting rotation, but he is behind the others in his development. He made his MLB debut June 17.

Manning has recently worked on his fastball command and adding a slider into his repertoire. He throws a fastball, change-up and curveball. Manning threw a slider during spring training, and at other points through his professional career, but he didn’t use it earlier this season in Triple-A Toledo.

During the week before Manning’s July 4 start, he began his trial runs with the slider. He used the pitch 10 times against the White Sox, averaging 85.6 mph to go with his fastball (93-95 mph), curveball (78 mph) and change-up (87 mph). He showed continued improvement by throwing five innings of two-run ball July 9 against the Twins.

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Mastering these pitches and understanding when to throw them will dictate Manning’s results. He is a project with high upside for pitching coach Chris Fetter, so the hope is to increase his consistency by the end of the season.

Casey Mize’s innings

Mize’s load management is no fun, but it’s essential for his future.

His final two starts entering the All-Star break featured restrictions. He went three innings (56 pitches) July 2 against the White Sox and four innings (50 pitches) July 7 against the Rangers. Once the season begins again, don’t expect Mize to start pitching into the sixth and seventh innings.

Hinch said Mize will be limited for two or three outings after the All-Star break before the restrictions are removed. The goal is for Mize and Skubal to pitch through September without getting shut down for the season. Skubal could have his innings limited in late July or August.

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In 2020, Mize threw 28⅓ innings in the big leagues, along with an unspecified number of innings at summer camp in July and at the alternate training site in July and August. This year’s number — 95⅓ innings and counting — is a hefty increase.

The most registered innings Mize has ever pitched came in 2018, when he threw 114⅔ innings as a junior at Auburn, ahead of Detroit drafting him No. 1 overall. He pitched 109⅓ innings in his first full professional season but was shut down in late August 2019. 

This time, the Tigers don’t want to cut his season short, but they need to protect his long-term health. 

Building resumes

If it weren’t for Baddoo’s success, catcher/left fielder Eric Haase would be the biggest surprise of the first half.

Haase — acquired by general manager Al Avila from Cleveland in January 2020 for cash considerations — has played 44 games in 2021, hitting .244 with 13 home runs, 27 RBIs, 10 walks and 57 strikeouts. The 33.3% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and .292 on-base percentage aren’t flattering, but the home run rate — 7.6% — is keeping Haase in the lineup. 

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The second half gives Haase, 28, a chance to build his resume for the future. The same is true for outfielders Daz Cameron and Derek Hill, second baseman Willi Castro, infielder Isaac Paredes, shortstop Zack Short, catcher Jake Rogers and third baseman Jeimer Candelario.

Watch out for second baseman Kody Clemens, who could make his MLB debut in the second half of the season. He is hitting .269 with in 27 games for Triple-A Toledo. Paredes, Hill and relievers Jason Foley and Alex Lange have bounced between the Tigers and Mud Hens this year. Expect them to return to the big leagues.

Next wave of prospects

Are these guys getting to the big leagues this year? Probably not.

But they’re all making a case for a promotion to Triple-A Toledo, which would make things interesting. It’s still early for first/third baseman Spencer Torkelson and catcher Dillon Dingler. They were brought up July 13 from High-A West Michigan to Double-A Erie. Outfielder Riley Greene has been in Erie for the whole season, so he might be at the forefront of the conversations.

Torkelson is ranked as the Tigers’ No. 1 prospect and the No. 3 prospect in all of baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. He was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft. Greene is the team’s No. 2 prospect (No. 15 in baseball) and was drafted No. 5 overall in 2019. And Dingler is ranked No. 3 in the farm system; he was picked at the top of the second round in 2020.

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Greene, 20, is hitting .289 with eight doubles, three triples, 10 home runs, 36 RBIs, 27 walks and 66 strikeouts over 55 games. He has stolen 10 bases — getting caught just once — and has played 52 games in center field.

Torkelson, 21, moved up from West Michigan after hitting .312 with five homers, 28 RBIs, 24 walks and 28 strikeouts in 31 games. Through 22 games in Double A, Torkelson has a .257 batting average, seven home runs, 15 RBIs, 13 walks and 18 strikeouts.

Combining West Michigan and Erie, Torkelson is hitting .290 with 12 home runs in 53 games.

Maybe Torkelson and Greene will get to Triple-A Toledo before September, setting them up to make the 2022 Opening Day rosters. Still, it’s too soon to include them in the conversation for reaching the big leagues this season.

Evan Petzold is a sports reporter at the Detroit Free Press. Contact him at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @EvanPetzold. Read more on the Detroit Tigers and sign up for our Tigers newsletter.