There wasn’t just final day drama surrounding the playoff race in Major League Baseball. It trickled all the way down to the bottom end of the standings, where Sunday’s games determined who will have the No. 1 pick in the 2022 Draft.
With the D-backs winning their final contest of the year and the Orioles losing, the two teams finished with identical 52-110 records. Ties for Draft order are broken based on last year’s record, and in 2020, the D-backs and Orioles finished with … identical 25-35 records. That meant a trip back to 2019, when the Orioles had the second worst record in baseball and the D-backs were over .500, meaning Baltimore will have the top pick in 2022.
It marks the second time in four years the Orioles have the top pick after they selected Adley Rutschman, currently the No. 1 prospect in baseball, in 2019. Baltimore also had the top pick back in 1989, taking Ben McDonald.
The D-backs (No. 2), Rangers (No. 3), Pirates (No. 4) and Nationals (No. 5) round out the top five. The Nats haven’t had a top 10 pick since 2011, when they took Anthony Rendon at No. 6, a year after nabbing Bryce Harper No. 1 overall in 2010 and Stephen Strasburg with the top overall selection in 2009. The Cubs, picking at No. 7, are in the top 10 for the first time since taking Ian Happ at No. 9 in 2015, the last of four straight top-10 picks.
The Mets will pick twice in the top 15, getting the No. 11 pick as compensation for not signing 2021 first-rounder Kumar Rocker, the No. 10 overall pick, as well as their regular pick, now at No. 14. The Astros will be back in the first round for the first time in three years after forfeiting their first-round pick in 2020 and 2021 as punishment for sign stealing.
There is no clear-cut favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick right now, though MLB Pipeline put Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee at the top of its recent college prospects rankings and Georgia prep infielder Termarr Johnson at No. 1 on its high school prospects list. Much will change between now and whenever the 2022 Draft is held.
The Draft took place in July for the first time in 2021 as part of All-Star festivities, but there’s a TBD next to the 2022 date as well as a number of other Draft-related issues. Much of that will be on the table when Major League Baseball and the Players Association meet to collectively bargain a new agreement this offseason.
Since 2012, each pick in the top 10 rounds has been assigned a bonus value, with the total for each club’s selections representing the amount it can spend in those rounds without incurring a penalty. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the values from the 2019 were frozen for the next two years, meaning the team picking No. 1 came with an allocation of $8,415,300 for three straight Drafts. The Tigers signed Spencer Torkelson for $8,416,300 in 2020, breaking the Draft record of $8.1 million set by Rutschman a year earlier. The Pirates signed 2021 top pick Henry Davis for $6.5 million, using that savings to aggressively pursue talent later in the Draft.
Working with the assumption that some version of the bonus pool system will be used again, it does remain to be seen if, and how much, the values for each pick will be increased. Things like how free-agent compensation will involved Draft picks will also have to be negotiated, so it’s unclear just how that, or exceeding the luxury-tax threshold (which in the past forced a team to drop a selection 10 spots if it exceeded that threshold by more than $40 million), might alter the first-round order below.
Here’s the order for the 2022 Draft:
1. Orioles (52-110)
2. D-backs (52-110)
3. Rangers (60-102)
4. Pirates (61-101)
5. Nationals (65-97)
6. Marlins (67-95)
7. Cubs (71-91)
8. Twins (73-89)
9. Royals (74-88)
10. Rockies (74-87)
11. Mets (compensation)*
12. Tigers (77-85)
13. Angels (77-85)
14. Mets (77-85)
15. Padres (79-83)
16. Indians (80-82)
17. Phillies (82-80)
18. Reds (83-79)
19. A’s (86-76)
20. Braves (88-73)
21. Mariners (90-72)
22. Cardinals (90-72)
23. Blue Jays (91-71)
24. Red Sox (92-70)
25. Yankees (92-70)
26. White Sox (93-69)
27. Brewers (95-67)
28. Astros (95-67)
29. Rays (100-62)
30. Dodgers (106-56)
31. Giants (107-55)
*–compensation for not signing 2021 Draft pick Kumar Rocker