Al Avila has always said he doesn’t want short-term success.
He wants his work as the Detroit Tigers‘ general manager to harvest benefits for years to come, long after he retires from his role. That’s why the Tigers won’t spend like ‘drunken sailors’ in free agency this winter. Although Avila seems to think spending too much, too soon could backfire in the long run, he won’t veer from doing what’s necessary for the franchise to forecast a winning record in 2022.
A star addition would help.
The Tigers have a chance to sign one in the form of a shortstop during the offseason. The elite class of free agent shortstops features five names: Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Baez.
Here’s what you need to know about them (and three others):
(Note: Contract predictions via MLB Trade Rumors.)
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Age: 27.
Bats/throws: Right/right.
2021 stats: 148 games, 34 doubles, 1 triple, 26 home runs, 92 runs batted in, 75 walks, 116 strikeouts, .279 batting average .366 on-base percentage, .485 slugging percentage, 134 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus; MLB average is 100), 5.8 wins above replacement, plus-21 Defensive Runs Saved.
Career stats: Seven years, 752 G, 133 HR, 489 RBIs, .277 AVG, .356 OBP, .481 SLG, 130 wRC+, 25.1 WAR, +68 DRS.
The buzz: Correa is the best available. He played for Tigers manager AJ Hinch for the first five of his seven seasons with the Houston Astros. They won the World Series together in 2017. Correa has carried the Astros through the regular season and postseason, and he finally proved he could stay healthy in 2021, playing 148 games and helping the Astros to their third World Series appearance in five seasons. He just earned the first Gold Glove of his career last season. He has hit .272 (82-for-301) with 18 homers and slugged .505 over 79 playoff games in his career. Money is the one obstacle that could prevent a Hinch/Correa reunion in Detroit.
Prediction: 10 years, $320 million.
Age: 27.
Bats/throws: Left/right.
2021 stats: 95 G, 22 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 66 RBIs, 48 BB, 66 K, .306 AVG, .394 OBP, .521 SLG, 147 wRC+, 3.7 WAR, 0 DRS.
Career stats: Seven years, 636 G, 104 HR, 364 RBIs, .297 AVG, .367 OBP, .504 SLG, 132 wRC+, 23.7 WAR, -4 DRS.
The buzz: Seager seems to be the consensus second-best shortstop on the market, solely because of his offense. The left-handed hitter has a 148 wRC+ since 2020, which ranks second among shortstops. (In first place is Fernando Tatis Jr., who signed a 14-year, $340 million deal with the San Diego Padres in February.) Over the past two years, Seager has 31 homers in 147 games. He doesn’t strike out much, draws enough walks and provides consistent at-bats. But Seager has durability concerns due to past injuries and doesn’t size up to Correa on the defensive side. Seager was worth an even zero DRS at shortstop in 2021 (still a huge upgrade for the Tigers) and has minus-4 DRS across his seven-year career. His postseason resume features a .236 batting average in 61 games, as well as National League Championship Series and World Series MVP honors in 2020, when his Los Angeles Dodges won the title. If Correa turns down the Tigers or costs too much, Seager should be next on their list.
Prediction: 10 years, $305 million.
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Age: 31.
Bats/throws: Right/right.
2021 stats: 162 G, 39 2B, 2 3B, 45 HR, 102 RBIs, 66 BB, 146 K, .265 AVG, .334 OBP, .538 SLG, 131 wRC+, 6.6 WAR, +12 DRS.
Career stats: Nine years, 1020 G, 160 HR, 482 RBIs, .256 AVG, .324 OBP, .444 SLG, 109 wRC+, 25.2 WAR, +17 DRS.
The buzz: Semien should provide a lower price tag without as many years of commitment. He slugged 45 home runs for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2021 — his first All-Star season — and leads MLB in WAR (15.4) since 2019. He provides defensive versatility with above-average results at second base and shortstop. One of his best attributes is durability, playing 536 of a possible 552 games in the past four years. Semien has less postseason experience with nine playoff games but has hit .371 with two homers, five walks and four strikeouts. The biggest question surrounds his age: If Semien gets six years, can he repeat his health and productivity through the end of his contract?
Prediction: Six years, $138 million.
Age: 28.
Bats/throws: Right/right.
2021 stats: 142 G, 34 2B, 5 3B, 24 HR, 75 RBIs, 53 BB, 139 K, .251 AVG, .329 OBP, .471 SLG, 100 wRC+, 3.5 WAR, +9 DRS.
Career stats: Six years, 745 G, 158 HR, 450 RBIs, .272 AVG, .340 OBP, .523 SLG, 112 wRC+, 21.6 WAR, +69 DRS.
The buzz: In 2021, Story put up his worst numbers since 2017, which wasn’t what he wanted entering free agency. In a year without Correa and Seager, he would be getting more attention and a bigger payday. Although he has a 27.6% career strikeout rate, that number was 24.3% in 2020 and 23.4% in 2021. He is known for his power and ranked fourth among shortstops last season with a .221 ISO (isolated power), trailing Tatis, Baez and Brandon Crawford. He is an above-average defender. Playing six years for the Colorado Rockies, Story has hit .303 and slugged .603 in 375 career games at Coors Field. Away from home, those numbers dropped to .241 and .442 in 370 games.
Prediction: Six years, $126 million.
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Age: 28.
Bats/throws: Right/right.
2021 stats: 138 G, 18 2B, 2 3B, 31 HR, 87 RBIs, 28 BB, 184 K, .265 AVG, .319 OBP, .494 SLG, 116 wRC+, 3.6 WAR, +6 DRS.
Career stats: Eight years, 862 G, 149 HR, 465 RBIs, .264 AVG, .307 OBP, .477 SLG, 103 wRC+, 17.5 WAR, +69 DRS.
The buzz: Nobody likes Baez’s strikeout rate, but everyone loves his ability to slug. After the Chicago Cubs traded him to the New York Mets in July, he switched to second base and remained successful, so he is an above-average defender at two infield positions. (He hit .248 in 91 games for the Cubs, then .299 in 47 games for the Mets.) Baez had a terrible 33.6% strikeout rate in 2021. His strikeout rate — 29.3% for his career — has gotten worse each year since 2018. But he provides great power, especially for a shortstop. He crushed 23 homers (145 games) in 2017, 34 homers (160 games) in 2018, 29 homers (138 games) in 2019, eight homers (59 games) in 2020 and 31 homers (138 games) in 2021. Of the five top-tier shortstops, he might cost the least.
Prediction: Five years, $100 million.
Age: 31.
Bats/throws: Right/right.
2021 stats: 148 G, 25 2B, 4 3B, 20 HR, 73 RBIs, 63 BB, 167 K, .254 AVG, .344 OBP, .438 SLG, 113 wRC+, 3.1 WAR, -4 DRS.
Career stats: Eight years, 743 G, 79 HR, 309 RBIs, .261 AVG, .337 OBP, .443 SLG, 111 wRC+, 14.5 WAR, +7 DRS.
The buzz: The Dodges gave Taylor the $18.4 million qualifying offer for a reason. He was overshadowed by more popular faces in Los Angeles but should be a hot commodity for teams that don’t snag one of the top shortstops. He can play all three outfield positions (341 total games), as well as shortstop (258), second base (124) and third base (36). Taylor also has five years of playoff experience, hitting .259 in 62 games, including a .476 mark and three home runs in six NLCS games last season. If the Tigers decide starting pitching is more of a priority than an elite shortstop, Taylor would improve the roster.
Prediction: Four years, $64 million.
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Age: 30.
Bats/throws: Both/right.
2021 stats: 142 G, 18 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 42 RBIs, 46 BB, 132 K, .249 AVG, .322 OBP, .416 SLG, 105 wRC+, 2.1 WAR, -2 DRS.
Career stats: Nine years, 973 G, 98 HR, 325 RBIs, .258 AVG, .326 OBP, .403 SLG, 97 wRC+, 10.3 WAR, -18 DRS.
The buzz: Villar isn’t flashy but gets the job done. He turned in a solid 2021, after hitting .232 in his 2020 season split between the Miami Marlins (30 games) and Blue Jays (22 games). The nine-year veteran isn’t the sharpest defender, but can play shortstop (432 games), second base (367 games), third base (151 games), center field (10 games) and left field (five games). He is superb on the bases, with 62 steals in 2016, 23 in 2017, 35 in 2018, 40 in 2019, 16 in 2020 and 14 in 2021. Although signing him alone won’t push the Tigers into playoff contention, a two-year contract paired with his defensive versatility would open the door for shortstop prospect Ryan Kreidler — who finished last season in Triple-A Toledo — to develop and advance to the big leagues whenever he is ready.
Prediction: Two years, $14 million.
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Age: 32.
Bats/throws: Right/right.
2021 stats: 131 G, 12 2B, 3 HR, 31 RBIs, 32 BB, 62 K, .223 AVG, .283 OBP, .274 SLG, 56 wRC+, -0.5 WAR, +14 DRS.
Career stats: 10 years, 1191 G, 70 HR, 437 RBIs, .265 AVG, .313 OBP, .369 SLG, 87 wRC+, 24.7 WAR, +196 DRS.
The buzz: Simmons shouldn’t get anything more than a cheap one-year deal on this year’s market, considering his competition and poor offense. But the 10-year MLB veteran remains magnificent on defense and would work great with second baseman Jonathan Schoop up the middle, so he deserves a spot on this list. His strikeout rate — 9.5% in his career — is his strength at the plate, but it has gotten worse over the past four seasons, from 7.3% in 2018 to 13.8% in 2021. If the Tigers choose a one-year stopgap at shortstop, Simmons is their guy.
Prediction: N/A.
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @EvanPetzold. Read more on the Detroit Tigers and sign up for our Tigers newsletter.