What the Detroit Tigers do next depends on a lot of things.
The scenarios begin with the shortstop market: Will the Tigers eventually pay up to get Carlos Correa? If not, how much will they spend for one of the other premier shortstops? And if the Tigers, for some reason, swing and miss at a top shortstop, everything changes.
In that situation, the Tigers would put their resources toward a starting outfielder and become significantly more aggressive toward signing a second starting pitcher. Someone like Collin McHugh makes sense if they choose to upgrade the bullpen.
The Tigers inked left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez to a five-year, $77 million contract last week and also showed interest in right-hander Jon Gray, righty Anthony DeSclafani and left-hander Steven Matz, among others.
CATCHERS OF E-ROD’S PAST: Eduardo Rodriguez ‘is going to be the ace’ for Tigers, so says his former catchers
THE LATEST: Tigers, Carlos Correa flirting, but $300 million price tag cools courtship
Although the Tigers have always planned to sign two pitchers, they won’t know what range of price tags to examine until the shortstop market unfolds.
It’s unclear how much the Tigers will spend, but here’s a look at 10 potential candidates to fill the role of a back-end starting pitcher:
(Note: Contract predictions via ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.)
Age: 30.
2021 stats: 26 starts, 138⅔ innings, 3.83 ERA, 39 walks, 152 strikeouts, 14 HR, 3.48 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), 1.183 WHIP, 26.0% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, 2.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
Career stats: Nine years, 214 G (164 GS), 990⅓ IP, 3.50 ERA, 283 BB, 935 K, 3.51 FIP, 1.225 WHIP, 22.6% K, 6.9% BB, 16.2 WAR.
The buzz: Wood has made at least 30 starts just once in his career, but he bounced back from injury-plagued seasons in 2019 (back injury) and 2020 (shoulder inflammation) with 26 starts for the San Francisco Giants in 2021. The previous injuries forced him into one-year deals, but Wood should be lined up for anything between a one and three years this winter. Regardless, Wood sits in the same category as Matz and Yusei Kikuchi, so he could be too costly. Keep an eye on those three left-handers if the Tigers decide to increase their spending in the short-term pitching market. When he is healthy, Wood is a solid starter with an impressive strikeout rate. He has pitched 21 games in the postseason with a 3.11 ERA.
Prediction: Two years, $22 million.
Age: 34.
2021 stats: 18 GS, 93⅓ IP, 3.76 ERA, 33 BB, 98 K, 5 HR, 2.92 FIP, 1.264 WHIP, 24.9% K, 8.4% BB, 2.5 WAR.
Career stats: 10 years, 174 GS, 1,010⅓ IP, 3.87 ERA, 300 BB, 816 K, 3.94 FIP, 1.265 WHIP, 19.3% K, 7.1% BB, 13.7 WAR.
The buzz: Cobb had three underwhelming seasons with the Baltimore Orioles and was traded to the Los Angeles Angels in February 2021. He posted the best strikeout rate (24.9%) and sinker velocity (92.7 mph) of his career, though his walk rate slipped. Wrist inflammation caused him to miss two months last season, but he still pitched the most innings he has since 2018. (Remember: The 2020 season was shortened due to COVID-19.) He shouldn’t get anything more than a two-year deal, simply because of his age and inconsistencies. But there remains some upside.
Prediction: Two years, $14 million.
Age: 35.
2021 stats: 16 GS, 80 IP, 3.83 ERA, 33 BB, 82 K, 5 HR, 3.85 FIP, 1.338 WHIP, 24.1% K, 9.7% BB, 1.5 WAR.
Career stats: 11 years, 225 G (220 GS), 1,422⅔ IP, 3.19 ERA, 326 BB, 1,544 K, 3.04 FIP, 1.100 WHIP, 26.9% K, 5.7% BB, 36.1 WAR.
The buzz: There are a lot of concerns with Kluber. He pitched 35⅔ innings in 2019 (right ulna fracture) and one inning in 2020 (tear of right teres muscle). The New York Yankees gave him a one-year, $11 million deal for 2021. He threw a no-hitter in May but — once again — couldn’t stay healthy. After 10 starts, he missed two months with a shoulder strain. Upon his late August return, he made six starts to conclude his season. In those starts, however, Kluber had a 5.40 ERA with 10 walks and 27 strikeouts. When healthy, the two-time American League Cy Young winner (2014, 2017) has proven he can be an effective starting pitcher. But is he worth the risk?
Prediction: One year, $10 million.
Age: 31.
2021 stats: 31 GS, 167 IP, 4.53 ERA, 38 BB, 134 K, 27 HR, 4.37 FIP, 1.246 WHIP, 17.6% K, 4.8% BB, 2.1 WAR.
Career stats: Six years, 117 G (113 GS), 623⅔ IP, 4.62 ERA, 187 BB, 542 K, 4.43 FIP, 1.315 WHIP, 20.5% K, 7.1% BB, 7.8 WAR.
The buzz: The Pittsburgh Pirates dealt Anderson, who made $2.5 million last year, to the Seattle Mariners at the July trade deadline. He had a 4.35 ERA in 18 starts for the Pirates and mirrored those results in Seattle with a 4.81 ERA in 13 starts. Regardless of what happens with the shortstop position, Anderson could be the perfect addition for the Tigers as a low-cost, fifth starter in the rotation. Although his strikeout rate isn’t anything to get excited about, he can eat innings for teams trying to sneak into the postseason.
Prediction: One year, $8 million.
Age: 38.
2021 stats: 30 G (29 GS), 171 IP, 4.16 ERA, 36 BB, 120 K, 30 HR, 4.71 FIP, 1.170 WHIP, 17.2% K, 5.2% BB, 1.3 WAR.
Career stats: 18 years, 530 G (488 GS), 3,110 IP, 3.41 ERA, 712 BB, 2,809 K, 3.44 FIP, 1.159 WHIP, 22.1% K, 5.6% BB, 63.8 WAR.
The buzz: Bringing in a veteran pitcher to guide a young pitching staff isn’t a terrible idea. With ex-Tigers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer out of the Tigers’ price range, there is another pitcher with a Hall of Fame résumé on the market. Greinke won the 2009 AL Cy Young, ERA titles in 2009 and 2015 and made six All-Star Games. He is also a six-time Gold Glove winner and two-time Silver Slugger. Now, Greinke’s relationship with Tigers manager AJ Hinch could be strained, after the former Houston Astros’ skipper removed him from Game 7 of the 2019 World Series. The next year, with Dusty Baker as Houston’s manager, here’s what Greinke told reporters during the playoffs: “Since I‘ve been here, they haven’t seemed to have confidence in my ability.” If there’s no beef, he would be an interesting one-year placeholder until Spencer Turnbull returns from Tommy John surgery. He has 22 games (21 starts) of postseason experience. It’s worth noting the Astros aren’t expected to bring Greinke back for 2022.
Prediction: One year, $8 million.
Age: 32.
2021 stats: 22 G (21 GS), 109⅓ IP, 3.62 ERA, 21 BB, 88 K, 17 HR, 4.21 FIP, 1.235 WHIP, 19.2% K, 4.6% BB, 1.4 WAR.
Career stats: Eight years, 170 G (169 GS), 962 IP, 3.98 ERA, 213 BB, 940 K, 3.69 FIP, 1.190 WHIP, 23.9% K, 5.3% BB, 18.5 WAR.
The buzz: The Tigers have seen plenty of Pineda over the past three seasons, pitching for the Minnesota Twins. (He previously played for the Mariners in 2011 and the Yankees from 2014-17.) Pineda logged a 3.80 ERA with the Twins, and in his career, he has a 3.62 ERA with nine walks and 70 strikeouts in 11 starts against the Tigers. He also owns a 4.18 ERA in five starts at Comerica Park. He landed on the injured list three times in 2021. One stint was due to right elbow inflammation, another due to a left oblique strain. A return to the Twins is possible.
Prediction: N/A.
Age: 32.
2021 stats: 13 G (12 GS), 61 IP, 3.62 ERA, 22 BB, 65 K, 6 HR, 3.40 FIP, 1.213 WHIP, 25.8% K, 8.7% BB, 1.8 WAR.
Career stats: 11 years, 234 G (204 GS), 1,172⅓ IP, 3.95 ERA, 432 BB, 1,048 K, 4.17 FIP, 1.316 WHIP, 21.1% K, 8.7% BB, 16.3 WAR.
The buzz: Health concerns make Duffy a candidate for a one-year deal, but there’s a reason why the Los Angeles Dodgers traded for him in July. He had a 1.94 ERA through his first seven outings last season, but he landed on the injured list in May with a flexor strain. He returned from his injury in June, then needed another IL stint in July for the same problem. Nine days later, the Kansas City Royals traded him to the Dodgers. Duffey then experienced a setback in his rehab and never pitched for Los Angeles. He has a career 4.68 ERA (31 games) against the Tigers and a 4.15 ERA (13 games) at Comerica Park.
Prediction: N/A.
Age: 33.
2021 stats: 27 G (21 GS), 106⅔ IP, 3.46 ERA, 39 BB, 80 K, 12 HR, 4.34 FIP, 1.284 WHIP, 17.7% K, 8.6% BB, 1.2 WAR.
Career stats: Two years, 35 G (28 GS), 145⅔ IP, 2.97 ERA, 51 BB, 104 K, 4.22 FIP, 1.215 WHIP, 17.2% K, 8.4% BB, 1.8 WAR.
The buzz: Kim pitched for the SK Wyverns in the Korean Baseball Organization from 2007-19 before signing a two-year, $11 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. He made his MLB debut in July 2020 and fit right in through his first major-league season: 1.62 ERA, 12 walks and 24 strikeouts over 39 innings in eight games (seven starts). Kim opened 2021 in the Cardinals’ starting rotation but made two trips to the injured list. He had right lower back stiffness in June and left elbow inflammation in August. Those injured forced him to finish the season in the bullpen.
Prediction: N/A.
Age: 41.
2021 stats: 32 G (31 GS), 158⅔ IP, 3.86 ERA, 55 BB, 150 K, 21 HR, 4.34 FIP, 1.210 WHIP, 21.7% K, 7.0% BB, 1.7 WAR.
Career stats: 17 years, 324 G (195 GS), 1,134⅔ IP, 3.80 ERA, 445 BB, 1,185 K, 3.99 FIP, 1.221 WHIP, 24.9% K, 9.4% BB, 18.4 WAR.
The buzz: The Tampa Bay Rays signed Hill to a one-year, $2.5 million contract in February, just before the start of spring training, and then shipped him to the New York Mets at the July trade deadline. He was steady in both organizations, with a 3.87 ERA in 19 starts for the Rays and a 3.84 ERA in 12 starts for the Mets. What separates Hill from everyone else on this list is his age. The 41-year-old is six years older than Tigers pitching coach Chris Fetter and just six years younger than Hinch. (Hill and Fetter pitched for the University of Michigan in college, albeit not at the same time.) He won’t cost much and would surely help the Tigers’ young staff develop.
Prediction: N/A.
Age: 32.
2021 stats: 19 G (18 GS), 93⅔ IP, 3.07 ERA, 38 BB, 58 K, 12 HR, 4.94 FIP, 1.335 WHIP, 14.4% K, 9.5% BB, 0.7 WAR.
Career stats: Nine years, 230 G (138 GS), 873 IP, 4.36 ERA, 337 BB, 628 K, 4.55 FIP, 1.444 WHIP, 16.6% K, 8.9% BB, 4.2 WAR.
The buzz: The underlying metrics are disheartening, but Peralta — who didn’t pitch in 2020 due to an injury but signed a minor-league contract in February — stepped up when the Tigers needed him in the 2021 season. Therefore, he deserves to be considered for 2022. He showcased one of the best split-changeups in baseball but finished with a 4.76 expected ERA and a poor strikeout rate. It would be risky to re-sign Peralta, but he should end up eating innings as the fifth starter in a rotation wherever he lands.
Prediction: N/A.
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @EvanPetzold. Read more on the Detroit Tigers and sign up for our Tigers newsletter.