The names roll so easily off the tongue.
Mo. Ray. Bey. Cade. Penei. Amon-Ra. (Nobody screws up a cadence like the Lions…)
And, of course: Tork. (Or Spenny, as his parents call him…)
Yes, after a winter of watching Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond, Saddiq Bey, Cade Cunningham, Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown plant seeds of hope in roughly a square mile of the priciest Detroit real estate, the newest future star has arrived at Comerica Park.
At least, we think he has. Or will arrive, whatever. We know, for sure, that Spencer Torkelson, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft, will be starting for the Detroit Tigers on Friday (barring an injury). It’s a day we’ve been waiting for since … well, the 2020 MLB draft, which, OK, was only about 660 days ago. Not that we were counting or anything.
Hello and welcome to the TorkTorkTork Newsletter. (Don’t worry, we’re pretty sure it’ll be the GreeneGreeneGreene Newsletter by Flag Day.)
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Saturday’s announcement that Torkelson had made the Opening Day roster was a big one for a few reasons.
It’s the culmination of a near-lifetime of work for Torkelson AND his family, making it entirely understandable that he and his parents were a little teary upon getting the news of the promotion on Saturday, as the Freep’s Evan Petzold reports here: “All three of us were crying,” Torkelson’s dad, Rick, said.
It’s also a changing of the guard at first base, something that even Miguel Cabrera made a point of when he presented Torkelson with, of course, a big hug, as Our Man Petzold wrote here.
Cabrera also sounded off about Torkelson’s potential for stardom on Saturday: “He has the potential to be really good in the big leagues. He has the potential to be the man here in Detroit. … I think he’s ready. I think he’s going to do a lot of things for us in Detroit.” So, no pressure there.
And, of course, it’s a sign that the Tigers’ development process works. (Though the Freep’s Jeff Seidel would like to see Torkelson’s accelerated pace applied to a few other prospects in the system, as he notes here.)
But, really, there’s still one big question looming like an Arizona State student headed for the swim-up bar in Tempe: Will he hit?
We … can’t answer that yet. (If we could, this would probably be a much, much more popular newsletter…) But we can take a look at the projections of people much, much smarter than us; here’s what three major stat projection systems see coming for Torkelson this season:
• ZIPS: This is perhaps the most optimistic projection (named sZymborski Projection System after its creator, Dan Szymborski), as it gives Torkelson a .249/.334/.489 slash line, with 28 homers, 117 strikeouts and 55 walks in 541 plate appearances. That’s a little better than what Tigers first basemen combined for last season: a .284/.336/.459 slash line, and an OPS of .796 that ranked 13th in MLB, just above the average of .792. (Though if Torkelson can deliver that production while freeing Jonathan Schoop to play second base full-time, the Tigers will get a boost at two positions, not just one.)
• PECOTA: Baseball Prospectus’ projection system (with an acronymic name that’s a tribute to former Kansas City Royals utility player Bill Pecota, who hit .303 with four doubles in 26 career games against the Tigers) is the most pessimistic about Torkelson’s chances this season. PECOTA’s 50th-percentile projection — assuming a midrange level of success — has him putting up a slash line of .238/.332/.425 with 17 homers, 118 strikeouts and 55 walks in 496 plate appearances. Its worst case scenario — the 1-percentile mark — has him slashing .215/.296/.359 with 12 homers, while its absolute best-case scenario — the 99th percentile — puts him at .264/.380/.525 with 26 homers.
• Steamer: Our final projection system (no acronym here, just the projections of a trio of analysts, including Michigan alumnus Peter Rosenbloom, running Steamer Projections) hews fairly close to ZIPS, putting Torkelson at .250/.339/.490 with 27 homers, 118 strikeouts and 57 walks in 525 plate appearances.
So there you have it: Five projections (via three mathematical models) that put Torkelson’s potential OPS anywhere from .655 to .829 and his homer total anywhere from 12 to 28. Of course, he could stumble in the dugout today and miss the rest of the season. Thankfully, we don’t have a projection system foreseeing that. At least, not yet.
Then again, that’s a long-range forecast. There’s also the question of what Torkelson will do in his debut Friday. He’ll be the 13th college position player selected No. 1 overall to make it to the majors (lapping 2019’s top pick, Adley Rutschman of Baltimore) since the draft began in 1965. We took a look at how the previous 12 fared in their debuts. Click here to find out why a hit — or two — seems pretty likely.
Greene daze
Of course, it’s tough to celebrate Tork Day (one day ahead of the first Cinco de Mize-O of the year!) without getting a little wistful for what could have been had Riley Greene not fouled a ball off his foot during Friday’s game. After all, Tork and Greene have been tied together almost since they met (and roomed together) in November 2020. As the Freep’s Shawn Windsor wrote this week, they were “brothers in potential.”
But the fracture in Greene’s foot will heal, and he should be ready, after 6-8 weeks and then a few games in Triple-A, to join Tork in Detroit. Our Man Petzold has the timeline details here.
Baaaaaaddddddddddoooooooooooooooo!*
Greene was set to patrol center field this spring; Now that job will likely go to Victor Reyes, and a bit more pressure will land on last season’s breakout outfielder, Akil Baddoo. Remember him? Rule 5 draft pick. Never played a day above High-A ball? Turned 23 in August? Spent most of the season as a dark hose Rookie of the Year candidate? Yeah, he’s back, and, as he told Our Man Windsor here, he’s focused on becoming the everyday leadoff hitter, which means conquering lefties. (So far, so good, with two homers off southpaws this spring.)
*Your spelling may vary…
Grinders grind …
Baddoo’s not the only Tigers outfielder with a tough followup act: Robbie Grossman is back in right field (mostly), a year after joining the 20/20 club. It was an achievement of nearly pure determination, Our Man Windsor wrote here. It’s also an achievement that has drawn praise from his manager, who chimed in with this: “You have to change over the course of your career. … When a veteran guy does it it’s pretty impressive.”
Managers manage …
Also impressive is what AJ Hinch has done in approximately 17 months, flipping the culture of a franchise so thoroughly that it almost feels like the Tigers have locked up a playoff berth already, despite not having a winning season since 2016. How has he done it? Our Man Seidel has the inside scoop here from the young players who’d, as Seidel writes, run through a wall for him: “I was in Joe Maddon‘s camp and I was in David Ross‘ first camp (both with the Chicago Cubs), and those were great, don’t get me wrong,” shortstop Zach Short said. “But AJ has another level.”
Skubals … dive?
If the Tigers are actually going to contend, they’ll need a big jump from left-hander Tarik Skubal, who set the franchise record for strikeouts by a rookie last season … but also tied for second in the AL in homers allowed. This spring, he has kept up the former while ditching the latter, including a pair of impressive showdowns against reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper. Our Man Windsor was in Sarasota this week for those, and as he opined here, Skubal’s competitiveness will be key in the summer. (Skubal has his final tuneup start of the spring today vs. the Blue Jays. Find out how to watch it here.)
Three to watch
Three games left in spring training, but still plenty to be decided:
TYLER ALEXANDER: “This guy doesn’t get the respect he deserves,” Hinch said Friday after four scoreless innings.
JACOB BARNES: Lefty Andrew Chafin might miss Opening Day; will Barnes be the beneficiary of his roster spot?
MICHAEL PINEDA: He finally threw on the backfields Saturday, and he’s likely headed to Toledo to work on his stamina.
Happy birthday, E-Rod!
What birthday gift do you get for someone who just got $77 million back in November? If you’re the Tigers, you give him your Opening Day start. Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who signed with the Tigers over the winter after six seasons with the Boston Red Sox, turns 29 on Thursday – one day before he’s slated to take the mound against the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park. Rodriguez posted a 4.74 ERA with 185 strikeouts in 157⅔ innings last season; he has looked even better this spring, prompting Hinch to keep it short and sweet in his summary of Rodriguez’s final spring start Saturday: “Eduardo was really good,” Hinch said. “He’s ready to go.” Check out more of Our Man Petzold’s report from the start here.
Other Tigers birthdays this week: Renato Nunez (28 on Monday), Cameron Maybin (35 on Monday), Mickey Cochrane (would have been 119 on Wednesday; died in 1962), John Hiller (79 on Friday), Charlie Maxwell (95 on Friday), Frank Lary (would have been 92 on Sunday; died in 2017).
Mark your calendar
Are there other games this week? Sure. (Including today’s and Tuesday’s games from Florida airing on Bally Sports Detroit.) Do we care about any of them as much as Friday’s opener? Not so much. And if you want to get yourself into a Comerica Park state of mind, you’ll want to check out Carlos Monarrez’s review of the new food hitting the park this season. (Hint: He’s big on the pig, and the P.I.G.)
TL;DR
When Torkelson makes his debut, he’ll be the 11th player in MLB history with the first name of “Spencer,” with five playing last season or this one. (And two on the Tigers’ roster — hiiii, Spencer Turnbull!) Truly, the Age of Spencer is upon us.
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @theford.