Detroit — It’s almost incomprehensible how awful the Tigers have been, in so many areas, in so many ways. Equally incomprehensible: There’s no clear way to fix it.
A season billed as the end of the rebuild has turned into utter, historic misery, unlike anything we’ve ever seen. The offense is threatening franchise and MLB records for ineptitude. Four-fifths of the starting rotation has been injured or absent. Experienced players with decent tracks record are inexplicably crafting new abysmal track records.
If the Tigers continue at this pace — 37-55 at the All-Star break — they’d finish 65-97, and a nasty truth would emerge. They’d have to rebuild the rebuild, now deep into its sixth season.
Barring sudden signs of a rebound, GM Al Avila has to be dismissed. Chris Ilitch will have to fire (or bump to a different role) a loyal 20-year employee and get more aggressive reshaping his franchise. That would make angry Tigers fans feel better, but it’s far from an automatic fix. Just like spending on pricey free agents — Javier Báez, Eduardo Rodriguez — hasn’t fixed anything. Perhaps Ilitch would make a big-name GM hire, like he did with the Wings and Steve Yzerman. Perhaps a rising internal candidate such as vice president Sam Menzin, 32, could be tabbed.
Way too many changes are needed on the roster to ignore the fate of the man who assembled it. The rebuild unofficially began in 2017 with the trades of J.D. Martinez and Justin Verlander, and the task still looks enormous, with minimal options for Avila.
His strength has been in scouting, and when Dave Dombrowski left in 2015, we wondered if Avila would have the savvy and creativity to pull off sharp moves. Although hamstrung by the nature of a rebuild, when you’re trying to pile up prospects, Avila has woefully lacked in the deal-making department, starting with meager returns for Martinez and Verlander. Even when he made a widely praised trade — prospect Isaac Paredes to Tampa Bay for Austin Meadows — it spun madly the other way. Paredes has 13 home runs and Meadows has been sidelined since June 15 with vertigo and sore Achilles.
The Aug. 2 trade deadline and the MLB Draft that began Sunday won’t reap quick rewards. Avila has few veterans he can shop, other than decent pieces in the bullpen. Even if he did, shifting to sell mode would signal failure. And outside of his highest picks, drafting has been unimpressive.
More: Tigers take Texas Tech slugger Jace Jung at No. 12 in MLB Draft
Misfortune and missteps
Have the Tigers been haunted by gigantic mounds of misfortune? Yep, mostly to their pitching staff. That doesn’t explain an offense ranked last or next-to-last in runs (3.1 per game), OPS and home runs (53, behind Oakland at 70). It doesn’t explain a batch of career-worst seasons by experienced players. It doesn’t explain a total lack of discipline or concentration at the plate. It doesn’t explain how Jeimer Candelario (.271 last season), Jonathan Schoop (.278) and Robbie Grossman (.772 OPS) could plummet so dramatically. They’re hitting .191, .212 and .586 OPS respectively, with virtually no power.
This is the issue that ultimately should cost Avila, 63, his job. Sometimes you fire the manager, but AJ Hinch is in his second season and by all accounts in good standing with sufficient power.
This is a team with neither veteran stars nor rookie stars, virtually no one in their primes. You could argue only two players — Harold Castro and Victor Reyes — are outperforming their own standard. Báez has a team-high nine home runs, but is hitting .213 with 76 strikeouts and 14 walks. If it was a team relying on youngsters throughout the lineup, you’d live with the struggles and wait for better days. Rookie Riley Greene has been good after missing 64 games with a broken foot. But Spencer Torkelson just took his .197 average and five home runs to Toledo, and Akil Baddoo just returned from the minors.
The Tigers’ roster somehow has the worst combination of age and production. When 39-year-old Miguel Cabrera and 21-year-old Greene are two of your most productive hitters, and Tarik Skubal, 25, has been your lone dependable starter — and he’s struggled of late — way too much has gone wrong. Number of Tiger pitchers to start a game this season: 14.
Avila and Hinch have done an admirable job patching together a rotation with late-round prospects, but it’s not sustainable. The Tigers’ strength is their bullpen — Gregory Soto, Michael Fulmer, Alex Lange, Joe Jimenez, Andrew Chafin — and one or two might draw a solid trade return. It’s funny (not really), but all those years the Tigers were contenders, they never constructed an effective bullpen under Dombrowski. Now, they have good relievers often rendered moot by large early deficits.
“We’re all responsible,” Avila said two weeks ago. “I’m the general manager of the team. Obviously at this point, you can see there have been some mistakes, and we’re trying to correct them.”
Before the season Ilitch expressed optimism based on the touted prospects and additions such as Báez and Rodriguez. Recently he said he was “very pleased” with the Tigers direction, but that was in reference to the young players. At the time, the Tigers were launching a streak of eight victories in 10 games.
Breaking bad
Now they head to the All-Star break with eight losses in 10 games, a season-low 18 games below .500. The past three outings in Cleveland they were outscored 20-5. They’ve been shut out 13 times, including these dandies: 10-0, 8-0, 7-0, 13-0, 13-0.
Maybe we were deluded by the strong second half last season, Hinch’s first here. More important, was Tigers management and the players deluded? Candelario led the league in doubles in 2021 with 42. He’s eighth on the team now with seven. Schoop had 22 home runs; he has six now. Grossman had 23 home runs; he has two now. Any help in the minors? Maybe Kerry Carpenter, 24, who has 25 home runs between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo. Not much else.
It’d be easier to explain if it was all about injuries, but only the pitching staff can claim that. Purported ace Casey Mize was lost to Tommy John surgery, young starter Matt Manning is out with shoulder inflammation and Michael Pineda has been sidelined for various stretches. Most troubling and confusing is Rodriguez, who signed for $77 million and hasn’t pitched since May 18. He’s on the restricted list reportedly with marital issues, and the Tigers can’t say much because Rodriguez won’t call them back, according to Avila. Also still missing is starter Spencer Turnbull, recovering from TJ surgery.
Hinch has been unflinching, rarely criticizing players, rarely snapping at questions. He says he’s pleased with their effort but they must show more. He sounds like a guy who knows a season is lost and is trying to preserve clubhouse sanity, or bracing for the next calamity.
Maybe players are pressing, trying to live up to their career seasons. Maybe they’re just not as good as hoped. The Tigers are last in the majors in walks and next-to-last in on-base percentage. The at-bats range from maddening to feeble.
The Tigers have had worse teams record-wise, such as the 119-loss team in 2003, or the 114-loss group in 2019. But they’ve rarely had a situation more disappointing or perplexing. Avila hasn’t gotten many breaks this season, but for too many years, he hasn’t shown the ability to make his own. Everyone knew the scope of this massive rebuild, and firing the GM usually is the move of last resort. The Tigers are headed toward the last resort.
bob.wojnowski@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @bobwojnowski