A common grievance against Al Avila, who for now remains Tigers general manager, is that he doesn’t make good trades. Or enough trades. Or trades that impact the Tigers’ roster in any dramatic fashion.
A like refrain comes from fans who, the minute you propose the Tigers trade a person of value and make possible getting value in return, well, they act as if you want to give away the Olde English D.
Over their dead bodies will you trade, say, Tarik Skubal, which is what would be advised here, because of Detroit’s deep need for everyday players, beginning with outfield talent they can merge with Riley Greene.
That’s the way it tends to go with a team’s faithful: Trade, please, the guys we aren’t wild about. But by all means, hang on to the dudes we like. And, oh, yes — be sure to get exciting players in return.
Let’s get serious about trades. About how acquiring quality requires trading quality.
Not only can Skubal be dealt, no matter how reluctant fans — as well as Avila — are averse to swapping a potential longtime ace, so can all other Tigers arms that teams are willing to procure for an adequate return.
That’s the only way trades can work: You have to give to get.
Back, for a moment, to Skubal.
Skubal could, conceivably, fetch a package that would help end this wheels-spinning bid to place good hitters deep into manager AJ Hinch’s batting order. That’s the brand of trade Avila to date hasn’t been able to make, or has been reluctant to make, all because he has viewed such deals (Michael Fulmer a few years back) as inadequate in return chips or as unwise risks. Or, more often, because rival teams took a look and said: Not interested.
So, we differ — fans and GM versus a scribe who sees the Tigers’ ills as acute and a blockbuster deal for Skubal, if achievable, as a single, strong remedy.
Other suggestions are more in keeping with what fans, and no doubt the front office, find more palatable as an early trade deadline approaches.
Those recommendations begin with dealing Gregory Soto — again, if possible. The Yankees probably are nervous that a guy like Soto, even with his left-hand arm and 100-mph gas, would lead to a Bronx riot if he continued with his pattern of, well, untidy innings and occasional blown saves or holds.
But it’s possible the Tigers will get a worthwhile offer, from someone, maybe even the Yankees. Or the Blue Jays. Or other teams hoping to turn October into World Series gold. In that case, though it won’t light up fans who, whatever the Tigers get, will want more celebrity and a more dazzling track record, Avila needs to deal Soto. Even if the return isn’t 100% optimal.
A same take applies to back-end arms Alex Lange, Andrew Chafin, and Joe Jimenez. Fulmer qualifies, also, but he’s soon to be a free agent, and a few months’ rental is unlikely to fetch much.
Wanted: Some big bats
What do the Tigers need?
Outfielders, for sure. Greene is there and is going to be a franchise talent. Austin Meadows ostensibly is in Detroit for a while, but it’s tough to play baseball when everything from vertigo to sore Achilles tendons has all but wiped out his first year in Motown.
Akil Baddoo? No one knows, but a year from now it would be no surprise if he were playing as he did during his 2021 dream debut with the Tigers.
Otherwise, not much is happening on the farm. Not in the outfield. Only in the infield, where legitimate talent is percolating and on schedule for 2023-24.
Back to the Tigers’ deficits and what they might expect from the above.
Skubal would fetch a splendid outfield prospect, almost certainly, as well as (plausibly) another young pitching prodigy and even a third solid piece.
That’s why you make the trade. Having an ace is nice, but the ace works every five days. Those other four days you’d better have a batting order. The Tigers have shown even during this diabolical year that you can trust a wide cast of starters to keep you in ball games. Hitters are the ones at a premium. And the Tigers have way too few in Detroit and on their farm.
Ah, but the chorus shouts at high decibels, and in unison: “We can’t trust Avila to make trades!”
This is one of their many felonious charges against Avila, in concert with this year’s Tigers record, which seems also to have irked folks a tad. Declarations of war are understood when Comerica Park’s customers have had quite enough with a baseball team’s failings.
An offer of arbitration on the Avila Trade Case:
The Tigers for one persistent reason haven’t made big or dramatic trades since Avila took command in 2015: They have had little to deal. During a marathon rebuild, they have had too few players other MLB teams have wanted. It’s basic stuff, swapping players, but it’s contingent on having interested customers.
A second issue, critical to this Avila-can’t-deal complaint, has been MLB history.
Archival facts can’t be dismissed if fans for a moment care about some basic fairness.
It has to do with 2017.
MLB teams that year fell prey to an epidemic of trade-deadline fever. They concluded then, and pretty much afterward, that no longer were they going to go with the old prospects-for-veterans deals that playoff-bound teams (including the Tigers of yesteryear) tended as habit to pull off at July’s trade time.
No, they were going to horde their prospects — even if a Hall of Fame pitcher was on the block in Justin Verlander. Even if a guy who would hit 29 home runs in the season’s final 62 regular-season games, J.D. Martinez, was sitting there, in need of a new home, because the rebuilding Tigers were in no position to contend and had no shot at extending free-agent-to-be Martinez.
Nor would they keep Verlander, robbing him of a chance to put a team into the World Series (as the Astros were about to learn), when the Tigers were headed for barren seasons and frowned at holding Verlander hostage when they needed fresh talent for the reconstruction that Verlander could help deliver.
So…what happened?
The Tigers learned they had one measly suitor for Martinez — the Diamondbacks. One interested shopper. And it wasn’t a matter that Avila didn’t wait long enough. There was no market, not even for Martinez, who with his home-run barrage was about to put the Diamondbacks into the playoffs.
The Tigers got three infield prospects: Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King.
It was the only trade package achievable because it was the only trade package offered. Avila, Dave Dombrowski had he yet been around — no one was getting more for Martinez when no one was offering meaningful prospects or talent. And that’s how silly, dumb, myopic, stupid — all words apply — was that sudden MLB stance in 2017.
Reviewing Verlander
As for that summer’s seismic Tigers deal …
An admission must be made: Weeks before the 2017 trade deadline, an email was sent to Jeff Luhnow of the Astros. It offered Houston’s GM a shot to explain (off the record) why Verlander — from all available intelligence — wasn’t being hunted by a team that was one ace away from a world championship it later that year won — mainly because of Verlander.
No response, not that one was expected.
A month later. Trade deadline night. Still no activity with Verlander. Not even through dinner hour, just before midnight’s final call.
Suddenly, the Astros were phoning. It was later revealed that ownership prodded Luhnow, probably with a helping hand from Hinch, who then was Astros manager. By midnight (a few minutes afterward, to be precise, as commissioner Rob Manfred’s office allowed some good-faith grace), a deal was done. Verlander was heading to Houston.
The Tigers’ return was so strong it, candidly, stunned me:
► Franklin Perez, a then-19-year-old star who was the Astros’ top farm talent and No. 40 on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospects.
► Jake Rogers, a third-round pick from Tulane who looked like a probable/possible starting catcher.
► Daz Cameron, another first-round pick and outfielder who was 20 and who had sufficient upside and bloodlines (son of longtime MLB outfielder Mike Cameron) to qualify as an appealing complementary piece.
The Tigers got this as a parcel when no other clubs — zero — had made even a half-serious bid to land a Hall of Fame-bound pitcher.
A quick summation:
► Perez, who had no serious past physical issues, the next year got hurt and has all but disappeared. There was the bad luck, the unforeseen calamity, that blew this trade to pieces — mostly.
► Rogers, in fact, would be the Tigers’ starting catcher today if he hadn’t had to deal a year ago with Tommy John surgery. He probably returns and starts next season.
► Cameron? It’s doubtful he, now 25, will flourish. But in 2017, he was a fine third-chip inclusion.
We’ve started something, so we might as well finish it:
Last year at July’s deadline: The Tigers sent Daniel Norris to the Brewers for a young starter named Reese Olson. Norris last week was released by the Cubs. Olson is one of the Tigers’ best farm arms and, at some point, probably will start games for the Tigers in 2023.
Three years ago: Nick Castellanos was headed for free agency. The Tigers got Lange (and Paul Richan, since injured and now gone) in a deal that just about looks better each week. That same month, the Tigers traded Shane Greene to the Braves for Joey Wentz and Travis Demeritte. Wentz has been hurt, but he is a talented left-hander who started twice for the Tigers in May and could well become part of the Tigers’ rotation in 2023.
Five years ago (30 days before the Verlander deal): Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to the Cubs for Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes. This is more complicated, all because Candelario (before Monday night) has had a disaster of a 2022 season, while Paredes was dealt to the Rays for Meadows. But the Cubs’ return was a gain for the Tigers, no matter how it’s sliced.
Other, lesser deals can be mentioned and panned, but these were the biggies and these make the case that Avila can swap players acceptably — when he has inventory to trade.
He has it now, to a degree, with all those arms.
What’s harder to discern, as much as can be deduced today, is (a) how hot the market for any of the pitchers mentioned might become, and (b) whether there’s the will — I would call it the courage — to deal a talent on Skubal’s level.
This all is a separate matter from what will happen with Avila at season’s end. It seems a mandate that a new GM will be in charge ahead of 2023. That issue will be at the heart of Tigers scuttlebutt probably into October.
But for now, Avila still is boss, and still is in control of trades the Tigers — assuredly — must make if this seven-year war to rebuild is ever to turn Detroit’s way.
Lynn Henning is a freelance writer and retired Detroit News sports reporter.