Had the lottery balls tumbled just a tad more luckily in December, the Detroit Tigers would be tingling, as they and their cohorts prepare for the July 9-11 MLB Draft.
They would be sitting with hole-card aces, sizing up two amazing college outfielders and right-handed sluggers who will be eligible for plucking:
Dylan Crews from Louisiana State. Or, his fellow Southeast Conference masher, Wyatt Langford, from the University of Florida.
There is one slight problem: The Tigers will pick third overall in July, not that they’re complaining. MLB’s first-ever lottery in December gave the Tigers a boost. Detroit had finished with the sixth-worst record among the 30 MLB teams in 2022, and under old rules, would have been picking sixth in July.
A three-slot jump instead was gifted to Detroit as the lottery bin spit its numbers.
As for Crews and Langford, that they might — or definitely will — go 1-2 in July’s talent show is today generally accepted by MLB scouts.
Except …
This is February and the college season is only two weeks old. Much can, and will, change between now and July, as top picks are sliced and diced and critiqued by scouts, all while metrics wizards dissect numbers and bodies ahead of offering their preferences.
Note, also, the prep season has only gotten going in Sun Belt regions and won’t come close to being evaluated until at least April, or more likely, May. Hotshots on the level of Jackson Holliday or Druw Jones — each of whom a year ago was a high-school senior — could soar to the draft board’s penthouse, as they did last July, in going 1-2, besting any of the nation’s college blue-chippers.
Another factor scouts will agree upon is that there’s room for the Crews-Langford union to be dislodged. This could happen due to an unlikely chill gripping their spring outings, or, more likely, an injury that could create issues for team doctors.
Also worth considering is a pleasant reality not only for the Tigers, but for all teams outside of those two clubs picking first and second in July: the Pirates, and the Nationals.
There is splendid talent stacked deep within the 2023 draft tract.
It’s possible, definitely possible, a team such as the Nats, which fared well with a guy named Stephen Strasburg, will opt for weaponry on the extraordinary level of University of Tennessee ace right-hander Chase Dollander.
Dollander is a 6-foot-3, 210-pound gunslinger who, in 10.1 innings this month, has struck out 19 batters and walked two. Scouts tend to like guys of this style, especially when they throw fastballs at 97-99 mph, have a swerving slider that can reach 91, and feature a decent curveball and changeup that will mature with time and more usage.
The Tigers? The team that never met a pitcher it didn’t like, even if bats are abundant?
Those days probably are gone. There is a new Tigers chief of police in Scott Harris, who last autumn was quick to remodel the top of his scouting command, bringing aboard Rob Metzler and Mark Conner.
Figure on a bat — assuredly a bat — being the Tigers’ preference at No. 3 overall.
What, though, if a pair of prizes on the level of Crews and Langford have been gobbled up by the Pirates and Nats?
The Tigers might happily opt for Jacob Gonzalez, a left-handed slashing shortstop from the University of Mississippi who isn’t necessarily subordinate, even now, to Crews and Langford. Gonzalez is considered by Baseball America’s scouts to be on the same level as two shortstops who had MLB snoops drooling in 2015: Alex Bregman and Dansby Swanson.
So, again, simply by the degree of talent already being advertised heading into March, the Tigers, with that third draft turn, are sitting in a lustrous position to snag a roster-rocking talent come July 9.
Here’s how a very early pecking order of the top 10 picks shapes up for the Tigers and for 29 other MLB clubs as they scout and assess talent from across the nation’s college and high-school diamonds in advance of the 2023 MLB Draft, set for July 9-11.
1. Dylan Crews, Louisiana State University, outfielder, 6-foot-1, 203 pounds, right-handed batter: Crews turned 21 on Sunday and through six games, he has reduced to rubble pitchers from Western Michigan, Southern University, Kansas State and Iowa, going 13-for-23, which equates to your basic batting average of .565. His on-base average is .688, with a slugging percentage of .826. His OPS: 1.514. He has one homer, six walks, three strikeouts. Not a lot of college outfield talents match his status in any year.
2. Wyatt Langford, CF, University of Florida, 6-1, .225, RH batter: In eight games, Langford is swinging to the tune of .393/.550/.821/.1.371, with four doubles, a triple, and two home runs. He has seven walks, four strikeouts and four times has been hit by pitches. Think pitchers aren’t petrified by this guy?
3. Chase Dollander, RH starter, University of Tennessee, 6-2, 210: Dollander has worked against the University of Arizona, and against Dayton, and their hitters are impressed. Dollander has whiffed 19 in 10.1 innings, against two walks. He is a powerhouse package with his entrée a high-90s fastball, accented by a slider you don’t wish to meet.
4. Jacob Gonzalez, SS, University of Mississippi, 6-2, 200, LH batter: Some would argue Gonzalez belongs in that mix with Crews and Langford, perhaps as an eventual top prize. It’s a hard argument to make in February, especially when some scouts aren’t in love with his swing. But, in six games, he’s holding serve with slash numbers of .375/.483/.583/1.066, which includes a homer and two doubles. Tigers fans might note that Gonzalez profiles along the lines of Marcelo Mayer, the shortstop Detroit passed on in 2021, when the Tigers opted for Jackson Jobe.
5. Paul Skenes, RH starter, LSU, 6-6, 240: Skenes might finish ahead of Dollander when teams settle on that first pitcher drafted in 2023. One statistical sample would explain why: He has 23 strikeouts in two starts, spanning 12 innings, with three walks. He is a transfer from the Air Force Academy, who, if pitching weren’t his probable path, hits well enough to rank as a MLB position talent. He and Dollander are, at the moment, the stars from a heavy college right-handed pitching crop.
6. Jacob Wilson, shortstop, Grand Canyon University, 6-3, 190, RH batter: He’s the son of Jack Wilson, a shortstop who played 12 seasons with the Pirates, Mariners and Braves. And it looks as if son has a shot at beating dad’s career in terms of impact and offense. He had a monster game Saturday against Gonzaga: 5-for-6, with two doubles. What will appeal to the Tigers, among Wilson’s many lusters, is a 91% contact rate that’s big on squaring-up fastballs.
7. Hurston Waldrep, RH starter, University of Florida, 6-2, 205: The Tigers won’t be biting on Waldrep — not when hitters figure to be their quarry and when Waldrep has a delivery that suggests possible future issues. But, his stuff is so high-voltage that, come July, he could be an easy top-10 pick.
8. Rhett Lowder, RH starter, Wake Forest, 6-2, 200: He doesn’t throw as many fireballs as the above guys, but probably has the smoothest pitching repertoire among all the 2023 college crowd. Excellent fastball-slider-change mix that always seems to find the plate — or its edges. This man will make some fortunate MLB club a solid, early-to-the-big-leagues starter.
9. Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Indiana) Community High School, 6-1, 190, LH batter: Clark could, by Memorial Day, have joined last year’s prep rockets, Holliday and Jones, as high-schools stars who pushed their way to the top or near-top of a MLB draft board. He has categorical plus-grades in every column, with a stunning ability to make hard contact. He’s a Vanderbilt commit, but the Commodores can plan on sending Clark a congratulatory note once he’s been snatched — maybe in the draft’s top five picks.
10. Brayden Taylor, 3B, Texas Christian, 6-1, 175, LH batter: Here is a hitter with that Tigers-loving obsession — knowing the strike zone. Taylor can hit, and he can lay off stuff that shouldn’t be chased. He’s having a swift start for the Horned Frogs: .495 batting average through seven games, with two homers, and a 1.234 OPS. Third base might or might not hold up, but his bat figures to make him a prize somewhere in a MLB lineup.
Lynn Henning is a freelance writer and retired Detroit News sports reporter.