Monday marked 83 days until the 2023 MLB Draft.
It also hinted at how far the Tigers are from getting, very possibly if not very probably, University of Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford as the draft’s third overall pick.
Nothing is sure, nothing can be sure, so far in advance of July 9 and the draft’s first round.
But if the past month’s trend continues, as scouts anticipate, the first two picks on July 9 will be two Louisiana State superstars: outfielder Dylan Crews, and right-handed, lightning-thrower Paul Skenes.
That will leave the current consensus top-three talent, Langford, for the Tigers to happily scoop up with the draft’s No. 3 turn.
It is discussion that is definitely back-channel as spring’s prep and college seasons unfurl. The Tigers’ scouting brass, headed by Rob Metzler and Mark Conner, as well as their boss, front-office chief Scott Harris, are saying zero — less than zero, if such a metric applies — about 2023.
No general statements. No safe and sweeping overviews of a 2023 talent crop heavy on college hitters.
Nothing.
What’s left are conversations with scouts from across MLB, who are uniting in strong acknowledgment that Crews-Skenes-Langford are this year’s Draft Triumvirate. It leaves the Tigers primed to nab one of the above three.
No one is entirely sure the Pirates, who have this year’s first pick, will go with Crews, even if he is putting together a historic, stratospheric season of right-handed hitting (.500 batting average in 35 games, nine homers, 1.490 OPS).
He appears across most draft boards, at least as much as they can be determined in April, to be the clear-cut top choice. But the Pirates are known to approach drafts uniquely, often with dollar-signs part of their appraisal.
It is also conceivable — the Pirates demand one to be imaginative — they could decide as spring evolves that Langford is every bit the right-handed hitter Crews will become, or close enough to merit agreeing with Langford before the draft on a semi-discounted, first-overall offer.
Still, his talent is such and his 2023 season is so exceptional the Pirates may see Crews as a mandate.
At the same time, it’s important to note that Skenes is represented by the same firm that negotiated with the Pirates last year’s first overall pick, Henry Davis, a brilliant hitter and catcher-outfielder. Davis’ cash demands in 2022 were sufficiently friendly to attract a team that tends to enjoy spreading around its MLB bonus-allowance.
Skenes is next in line behind Crews as 2023 takes shape, all because of his equally historic presence as the kind of pitcher MLB teams encounter only every 5-10 years: a Stephen Strasburg, a Gerrit Cole, a David Price.
He is 6-foot-6, 240 pounds, and throws his fastball 98-100 mph alongside bat-befuddling accompanying pitches.
He could, conceivably, go one-one. It is viewed as a near-certainty he will go no lower than No. 2, to the Nationals, given that Skenes’ talents are celestial and that the Nationals (see Strasburg, 2009) have a history of loving arms on Skenes’ hoary level.
The Tigers would be viewed today as owning a no-lose ticket. These three are at the top of a rich draft class, heavy with hitters, with but one pitcher, Skenes, keeping this from being an all-offense early first round.
It has been thought in some circles that North Carolina prep prodigy, Walker Jenkins, could wheedle his way into top three status. Or, perhaps, that another prep dazzler, Max Clark, of Franklin, Indiana, might qualify.
Percentage-bets, based on scouting feedback, see Jenkins today destined for the Rangers with the draft’s fourth pick. Clark’s future is fuzzier.
And, so, with draft boards annually taking on clarity at mid-April, the Big Three are just that as the Tigers sit poised to win one of their signatures.
The bet today remains Langford. The wager 83 days from now could well be placed on the same 21-year-old sensation.
Detroit News ranking of the top 10 amateur baseball talents as they currently sit leading into the 2023 MLB Draft, set for July 9-11.
▶ 1. Dylan Crews, outfielder, Louisiana State University, 6-foot-1, 203 pounds, right-handed batter: In a three-game weekend set against Kentucky, six walks were handed Crews as a measure of how much SEC pitchers care to risk his amazing 2023 ways. He is hitting .500 — in 35 games. He has .648 on-base average and 1.490 OPS. Crews is ridiculously talented. Last week’s ranking: 1
▶ 2. Paul Skenes, RH starter, LSU, 6-6, 240: He was somewhat human in a Thursday start against Kentucky: six innings, seven hits (egad!), and four earned runs. But, of course, he also struck out 13. So, little has changed on the scouting reports. Last week’s ranking: 2
▶ 3. Wyatt Langford, OF, University of Florida, 6-1, .225, RH batter: So-so week, by Langford standards, against Florida State and Georgia: 5-for-14, with four walks, two strikeouts, and a hit-by-pitch. On the season: .377/.537/.783/1.320. Pretty good. Last week’s ranking: 3
▶ 4. Walker Jenkins, CF, South Brunswick High, Southport, N.C., 6-3, 205, LH batter: He isn’t cracking the top three, but at the moment, he’s a solid No. 4 and probably headed in July to the Texas Rangers. Last week’s ranking: 4
▶ 5. Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Indiana) Community High School, 6-1, 190, LH batter: Still a lap behind Jenkins, and probably can’t catch him. But teams that love his bat-to-ball skills, and speed, seem ready to bite on Clark. Last week’s ranking: 5
▶ 6. Jacob Wilson, shortstop, Grand Canyon University, 6-3, 190, RH batter: He made it back during the weekend after a bashed hand (hit by a pitch) cost him a few games. Same stuff against Abilene Christian: 3-for-5 on Saturday, including a double and a walk; 1-for-4 in Sunday’s finale, with a pair of walks. He’s not slipping on the scouts’ Top 10. Last week’s ranking: 6
▶ 7. Jacob Gonzalez, SS, University of Mississippi, 6-2, 200, LH batter: Just about every weekend the same story, which is why Gonzalez remains solid Top 7, maybe Top 8, as MLB teams nod at the consistency from this left-handed hitter who during the weekend against Mississippi State was his usual self: 5-for-12, with a homer, three doubles, and three walks. Last week’s ranking: 7
▶ 8. Rhett Lowder, RH starter, Wake Forest, 6-2, 200: Solid — again — Saturday against Louisville. Lowder threw only 88 pitches in seven innings, which is all you need when you walk none, strike out nine, and dispense all of five hits. Last week’s ranking: 8
▶ 9. Chase Dollander, RH starter, University of Tennessee, 6-2, 210: Check with the MLB snoops and they’ll tell you there’s nothing wrong with Dollander’s statistically and superficially shaky spring. He’s working on secondary stuff and trying to become the most polished pitcher, with the best repertoire this side of Skenes, in July’s draft. His stock will, if anything, soar in these final weeks. Notice his weekend start at Arkansas: 4⅓ innings, two hits, two walks, eight strikeouts. He and Lowder are dueling to determine which pitcher is grabbed after Skenes. Last week’s ranking: NR
▶ 10. Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest High (Dover, Fla.), 6-1, 170, RH batter: Born in India, played soccer and cricket before moving to the United States — and what a skill set he has brought to the baseball field. Batting .545 in 18 games, with a .615 on-base average, five homers, three triples, five doubles, and a pure bat. He can stick at shortstop. Watch this youngster, closely. Last week’s ranking: NR
Dropped from top 10 status
▶ Kyle Teel, C, University of Virginia, 6-1, 190, LH batter: His defense is fine, and his hitting? Big-league teams are suspect of Teel’s power? Consider another of Teel’s trademark weekends, the past series against Pitt: 5-for-12, with a homer, four doubles, and two walks. This is a left-handed hitting catcher who looks as if he could be a draft-day steal. Last week’s ranking: 9
▶ Jack Hurley, CF, Virginia Tech, 6-foot, 185, LH hitter: No fault of Hurley’s that he just missed retaining his Top 10 seat. He simply got whipped in a musical-chairs race that enabled Nimmala to, maybe briefly, triumph. Hurley’s weekend work against Georgia Tech was exemplary: 5-for-13, three homers, a double, a walk. Last week’s ranking: 10
Knocking at the door
▶ Collin Ledbetter, OF, Mississippi State, 6-2, 202, LH batter: He has nine homers and a 1.089 OPS (.483 on-base) against a good share of fiery SEC arms. Notice also: 38 walks, 22 strikeouts in 174 plate-appearances, for a man who can play three outfield spots.
▶ Hurston Waldrep, RH starter, University of Florida, 6-1, 205: Still not convincing scouts he’s a Top 10 guy, but he has time. He looked Top 10 against Georgia in Saturday’s duel: seven innings, three hits, one run, three walks, eight punch-outs. Heading into July’s sweepstakes, he’s considered at this point the fourth-best college arm in the land.
▶ Brayden Taylor, 3B, Texas Christian, 6-1, 180, LH batter: He did no better than 4-for-15, with a pair of homers, against Abilene Christian and UNC-Wilmington, so, not to disparage three dingers, but Taylor’s just-OK season continues.
▶ Colin Houck, SS, Parkview High, Lilburn, Georgia, 6-2, 193, RH batter: Batting .506 in 97 plate-appearances (17 walks, 10 strikeouts), with seven homers. Lots of allure here, physically, and in terms of that bat and how it plays at short.
▶ Matt Shaw, IF, University of Maryland, 5-11, 182, RH batter: Another strong weekend at Ohio State, which sees Shaw after 34 games with 12 homers and a 1.053 OPS.
Lynn Henning is a freelance writer and retired Detroit News sports reporter.