Is this the May that finally delivers a dose of hope for the Detroit Tigers?
The season’s second month has been full of disappointment over the past eight years, with only two winning Mays for the Tigers since the start of the 2015 season (both were virtual dead heats, with the Tigers finishing one game above .500 in 2018 and 2021).
But here we are, six games into May 2023, and the Tigers are 5-1 — and they were 12 outs from making it 6-0 on Sunday in St. Louis.
(If you turned off the game after Jake Rogers’ go-ahead sixth-inning grand slam with the intention of enjoying the suddenly summery weather, well, sorry to spoil it for you — but you can check out the dispatch from the Freep’s Evan Petzold.)
As third baseman Nick Maton — aka “Wolfie” to his buddies — told reporters afterward, “It’s baseball, man. You got to keep grinding. Whatever happens, you just got to keep pushing forward.”
And so, on we push, into the midst of the season’s second month, with the Tigers at 15-18, three games under .500 and 129 left to play.
Hello, and welcome to the Maypole Newsletter!
Remember how we said we should wait till mid-May to judge the Tigers? Turns out we were off by a couple of weeks.
After the AL East gantlet of April (which handed the Tigers 14 losses in 16 games), May has been downright pleasant, with a sweep of the New York Mets (a sign of things to come, according to the Freep’s Jeff Seidel) and a series win over the St. Louis Cardinals (who, uh, are 13 games under .500).
And it could get better.
Over the next month, the Tigers play 27 games in nine series against eight teams; two entered Monday above .500 this season, two are below .400 (hello, AL Central!) and four others are hanging out with the Tigers in the molten center of the standings — not erupting with playoff hopes quite yet, but not cooling off in favor of this winter’s draft lottery, either. Let’s scout 31 days of May and June foes (with their winning percentages entering Monday in parentheses):
Monday-Wednesday: Cleveland Guardians (.471) — Consider this the opposite of the Tigers’ April scheduling issue, as the Guardians averaged five runs a game over their first 10 contests, all against the AL West (going 6-4 against Seattle and Oakland). Since then, they’re 10-14 while averaging just three runs a game; José Ramirez is still their best hitter, albeit with a .799 OPS, and second-year outfielder Oscar Gonzalez, who had a .789 OPS in 2022, was just demoted to Triple-A with a .501 OPS this year.
Friday-Sunday: Seattle Mariners (.500) — The “Can’t Miss Team” for MLB and the NHL (their park will host the All-Star Game in July as well as the Winter Classic in January) is also a “Can’t Hit Team,” with a .685 OPS that ranks 23rd in MLB. (OK, the Tigers’ .652 OPS ranks 29th, but stick with us.) Outfielder Jarred Kelenic is having a breakout season (.298/.357/.570) in his third go-round (but still just 23) while reigning AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez is not, with a .696 OPS. (Riley Greene’s OPS is at .686, by the way.)
May 16-17: Pittsburgh Pirates (.571) — Few teams have embraced MLB’s bigger bases’ increased potential for theft like the, ahem, Pirates, who lead the majors with 48 steals (despite a mere 82.8% success rate that ranks only eighth in the majors). Their weird stat? They run A LOT for how often they reach base — in 471 times with a runner on first or second with the next base open, they’ve gone for it 58 times. That steal attempt rate of 12.3% is nearly double the league average of 6.5% (with the Tigers at 5.7%). Still, you can’t steal first base, and the Pirates have lost seven in a row despite going 9-for-10 in steal attempts.
May 19-21: Washington Nationals (.412) — The Nats officially launched their rebuild last summer with the trades of Juan Soto (to the Padres) and Max Scherzer and Trea Turner (to the Dodgers). The pitching returns of MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray have combined for a 3.33 ERA in 75⅔ innings. The rest of their pitchers have combined for a 4.93 ERA. Call it: “Gore and Gray and pray it rains for three days.”
May 22-24: Kansas City Royals (.257) — Salvador Perez (.290/.341/.516) is eternal behind the plate, first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino (.276/.372/.504) is as challenging to opposing pitchers as he is to spell-check and 39-year-old Zack Greinke may finish with more homers allowed than walks issued — he’s at seven and six, respectively — but he’s also on pace for his first ERA over 5.00 since he was 21 and pitching for the 2005 Royals. That squad won 56 games; this one might not win 50.
May 25-28, June 2-4: Chicago White Sox (.343) — Whatever deal right-hander Dylan Cease made with the Baseball Gods (noble or sinister) as apparently expired; he posted a 2.20 ERA last year despite leading the majors in walks (78); this year, his 19 walks are only fifth, but come with a 4.58 ERA. Oh, and DH Eloy Jiménez (appendix) and third baseman Yoan Moncada (back) have spent time on the injured list again. We’re shocked.)
May 29-31: Texas Rangers (.606) — The lone division leader is getting breakout seasons from 28-year-old catcher Jonah Heim (with a .950 OPS and no relation to any Tigers prospects) and 25-year-old third baseman Josh Jung (who’s at .808 and is the older brother of 2022 Tigers first-rounder Jace Jung). The Rangers’ starting rotation is also solid, with a 3.76 ERA that ranks eighth in baseball, at a cost of $93.6 million this season — or as much as the Tigers’ entire non-Miguel Cabrera roster.
June 5-7: Philadelphia Phillies (.457) — The defending NL champs haven’t been able to get going at the same time. Kyle Schwarber leads the Phils with eight home runs, but was also mired in a brutal slump; his two hits Sunday matched his total in the eight games prior (in which Philly went 2-6). Bryce Harper is back after missing the first 30 games while recovering from offseason Tommy John surgery.
Add it all up, and the Tigers’ next eight opponents have combined to go 124-151 — a .451 winning percentage that’s not that far off the Tigers’ .455 entering Monday. Of course, we’ve taken a rosy look at a Tigers schedule before, only to come away stung by the thorns of wasted at-bats, bad defense and missed opportunities. And lurking in the weeds is a June slate that features five series against teams above .500 (and one against the Royals, bless their hearts) — but, hey, that’s a worry for June, no?
The Javy report
Of course, if you’re looking for reasons why May has started out well for the Tigers, it’s tough not to start with their shortstop, Javier Báez. May has been his month, with a .364/.462/.773 slash line — that’s what hitting three homers in four days will do, we guess — sticking out. That’s been part of a 19-game stretch in which he has aa .921 OPS while the Tigers have gone 12-7, dating back to his benching for a baserunning blunder (or two) on April 13 in Toronto. But Báez says he’s not satisfied. Head here for a Freep exclusive from Our Man Petzold on what he’s focusing on now.
Fully charged
Also clicking is left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who enters Wednesday’s start in Cleveland with a 0.52 ERA over his previous five starts, covering 34⅔ innings. That’s the ninth-best five-game stretch by a Tigers starter since World War II and a welcome change from last season’s tumultuous spring, which saw him get in just 34 innings before a rib injury and personal issues cost him (and the Tigers) three months. What’s different? According to Rodriguez, through Our Man Petzold, it’s simple: “Every pitch is right where I want it.” Head here to find out why that is.
’Pen pals
The Tigers’ bullpen has been rolling, as well, with dynamite performances from closer — we’re using the term after he finished off three straight games Thursday-Saturday, despite manager A.J. Hinch’s “nope” — Alex Lange. For the third-year righty, it’s a dream come true, as he has opened the season with six saves in seven tries, 21 strikeouts and a 1.15 ERA in 15⅔ innings. Hinch is reluctant to give Lange the big title, but he’s not reluctant to praise the 27-year-old’s mentality, saying, “He has an intensity.” Head here to find out his secrets from Our Man Petzold.
While we’re talking mentality, rookie righty Mason Englert has been surprisingly effective (despite a propensity for first-pitch home runs) after joining the Tigers as a Rule 5 draft pick this offseason. Even those homers haven’t shaken Englert, as he has worked multiple innings in seven of his 11 appearances this season. (Though Sunday was his rockiest, as fielding errors led to allowing five runs — only one earned — while getting just one out and taking the loss.) He credits that to his mental routine developed over his years in the Rangers organization. Head here to find out what that is.
Trouble for Turnbull
Unfortunately, May hasn’t been stellar for all the Tigers. Right hander Spencer Turnbull, who’s still getting up to speed after spending 18 months rehabbing from 2021’s Tommy John surgery, was sent down to Triple-A on Sunday after Saturday’s five-run outing ballooned his ERA to 7.26 in 31 innings. “It’s very frustrating for me, personally, and I’m sure for my coaches, as well,” Turnbull said Saturday of his 2023 so far “It’s not really the pitch selection. It’s the execution.“ But it’s not a punishment; the Tigers are sending him to Toledo with a specific plan. Our Man Petzold lays it out here.
3 to watch
A trio of Tigers to keep an eye on against the Guardians and Mariners:
ALEX FAEDO: The 2017 first-rounder was the call-up to replace Turnbull after posting a 2.50 ERA for Toledo.
ANDY IBÁÑEZ: He’s learning the outfield on the job in the majors — from Miguel Cabrera?
JAKE ROGERS: He finally got to face Justin Verlander this week — even if it didn’t quite work out.
Happy birthday, Wily!
Wily Peralta, who posted a 2.58 ERA in 38⅓ innings with the Tigers last season, turns 34 today. The big righty ended up with a minor-league deal with the Nationals over the offseason. Will we get a reunion when the Tigers visit D.C. next weekend? He has a 5.89 ERA with their Triple-A affiliate over five starts this season, so perhaps not. Peralta isn’t the only ex-Tiger still going with other organizations; there are 29 on big-league rosters so far in 2023, including 11 from last year’s squad. Head here to catch up with their performances over the first month of the season.
Other Tigers birthdays this week: Alfredo Simon (42 on Monday), Ian Krol (32 on Tuesday), Prince Fielder (39 on Tuesday), JaCoby Jones (31 on Wednesday), Walt Terrell (65 on Thursday), Charlie Gehringer (would have been 120 on Thursday; died in 1993) and Lou Whitaker (66 on Friday).
Mark your calendar
OK, OK, we kinda knocked out the calendar a little early this week. But if you want to get ready for tonight’s series opener against the Guardians — with a relatively early 6:10 p.m. first pitch — featuring lefty Joey Wentz for the Tigers and righty Tanner Bibee for Cleveland, head here for a quick breakdown, and for live updates once the game is going.
TL;DR
Turnbull is far from the first Tigers righty with electric stuff to return to Toledo in search of a fix. Just 13 years ago — what, it wasn’t THAT long ago — a wild righty named Max Scherzer was shipped down in his third big-league season (and his first with Detroit). Two starts with Toledo and it all clicked for him. Five years before that, it was Justin Verlander, returned to Double-A Erie after a couple of starts with the Tigers in July 2005. And since then? As the Freep’s Carlos Monarrez summed up this week, after J.V.’s return to Comerica Park as a Met: “Justin Brooks Verlander will be elected to the Hall on the first ballot and the cap on his plaque will be the Old English D. Not an “H” or a star or whatever the Astros are using these days.”