The Detroit Tigers have experienced highs and lows in the first 39 games of the 2023 season.
Right now, the Tigers (18-21) are riding high, winning 16 of their past 28 games and eight of 12 games in May. They’re in third place in the American League Central, a half-game behind the Cleveland Guardians and four games behind the first-place Minnesota Twins.
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There are 123 games remaining.
Here’s how some key players are trending with 24.1% of the season completed:
Stock up
Three things are happening: Rodriguez is pitching better than the Tigers expected when they signed him to a five-year, $77 million contract in November 2021; he is pitching like a true No. 1 starter; and he is pitching like an AL Cy Young candidate.
Rodriguez, 30, has a 1.57 ERA with 10 walks and 47 strikeouts in 51⅔ innings across eight starts this season. His 1.4 fWAR leads the Tigers and ranks 15th among 75 qualified starting pitchers. In his past six starts, he owns a 0.43 ERA with six walks and 41 strikeouts in 41⅔ innings.
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The secret to Rodriguez’s success is his ability to consistently locate his pitches for swinging strikes, called strikes and soft contact. He possesses two of the best pitches in baseball with his four-seam fastball and cutter, while his changeup, sinker and slider are above-average offerings.
His 5.3% walk rate is the best in his eight-year career.
Rodriguez has an opt-out clause in his contract after the season. Therefore, barring an injury or complete meltdown, he is the Tigers’ best trade chip (or extension candidate) in years.
Báez, known as a strikeout machine throughout his 10-year career, has struck out 25 times (with eight walks) in 37 games this season, and 17 times (with five walks) in his past 26 games. The former World Series champion is also hitting .254 with three home runs this season, and .316 with a .370 on-base percentage in his past 26 games.
The 30-year-old, in the second season of a six-year, $140 million contract, hasn’t delivered consistent power yet, but his plate appearances have significantly improved — a product of increased focus — since manager A.J. Hinch benched him April 13 in Toronto for a mental mistake on the bases. He also grades as one of the best defensive shortstops, and one of the best defenders in baseball.
The 16.4% strikeout rate is utterly jaw-dropping (his career average is 28.1%), but Báez’s success on offense shouldn’t come as a surprise based on his upward trajectory to finish last season. After June 16, Báez’s 112 wRC+ ranked eighth among 24 qualified shortstops.
He has picked up where he left off while improving his plate discipline and should get even better into the summer months. Historically, and just like last season, he performs at his best in June and July.
The Tigers’ bullpen ranks 13th in baseball with a 3.91 ERA this season, and dating back to April 13, the bullpen ranks third with a 2.63 ERA, behind the Seattle Mariners (2.36) and Baltimore Orioles (2.50).
Every reliever has stepped up in big moments without defined roles (other than Alex Lange pitching in the ninth inning), but Foley — who signed as an undrafted free agent from Sacred Heart University in August 2016 — is taking the next step in his development as a high-leverage reliever. The 27-year-old has a 1.56 ERA with three walks and 13 strikeouts in 17⅓ innings across 18 appearances.
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His sinker averages 96.8 mph and ranks as the 14th-best pitch in baseball with a minus-8 run value. (Atlanta Braves right-hander Bryce Elder leads MLB with his slider’s minus-11 run value.) Opponents are hitting .167 (7-for-42) with one extra-base hit (a double) against Foley’s sinker.
Although Foley doesn’t really miss bats, his strikeout rate has improved from 16.8% in 2022 to 20.3% in 2023. His ground-ball rate, 63.8%, is the highest mark of his three-year career, which spans 89 outings.
Considered a right-handed specialist, Foley has improved his changeup enough to be serviceable against left-handed hitters. His sinker is elite, so if he continues to develop his slider (for whiffs) and changeup (for lefties), he should have the ability to be a closer in the big leagues.
Others trending up: Alex Lange (RHP), Jake Rogers (C), Zach McKinstry (2B).
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Stock down
It’s the final season of Cabrera’s 21-year career, one of the greatest careers in baseball history, but there’s nothing great about his production in 2023, especially not for $32 million. The 40-year-old is hitting .183 with three doubles, zero home runs, five walks and 16 strikeouts in 20 games.
The Tigers have limited him to 76 plate appearances in 20 games.
His 30 wRC+ ranks 300th among 306 hitters with at least 70 plate appearances, ahead of only Nick Gordon, Jake McCarthy, Austin Hedges, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, David Hensley and Lenyn Sosa. Meanwhile, his minus-0.7 fWAR ranks 304th among the same group and ahead of only Jean Segura and José Abreu.
The Tigers, in part due to Cabrera’s struggles, rank 26th in MLB with a .343 slugging percentage from the designated hitter spot in the lineup. Last season, the Tigers’ designated hitters also ranked 26th with a .349 slugging percentage.
Cabrera, a two-time AL MVP and 12-time All-Star, hasn’t produced at an above-average rate on offense in a full season since the 2016 campaign, when he hit .316 with 38 home runs in 158 games. Since then, he has 61 homers in 623 games across parts of seven seasons.
In the offseason, the Tigers acquired Maton as part of a three-player return — with outfielder Matt Vierling and catcher Donny Sands — in a trade with the Philadelphia Phillies for reliever Gregory Soto and utility player Kody Clemens.
The 26-year-old, a left-handed hitter who plays against right-handed pitchers, has struggled to hit non-fastball pitches for his entire career, and the trend has continued through 37 games and 126 plate appearances with the Tigers.
In total, Maton is hitting .153 with four home runs (all from fastballs) 13 walks and 37 strikeouts.
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In 2023, Maton is hitting .220 against fastballs, .105 against breaking balls and .000 against offspeed pitches. In 2022, he hit .406 against fastballs, .130 against breaking balls and .118 against offspeed pitches.
He has played 180⅔ innings at third base, 34 innings at second base and 14 innings at shortstop, and as a defender, he is considered below average: minus-2 defensive runs saved and minus-3 outs above average.
It’s hard to envision Maton making the necessary adjustments, especially against non-fastball pitches, at the highest level. He has one minor-league option remaining, and Justyn-Henry Malloy looks ready for a promotion in Triple-A Toledo.
Schoop, who continues to lose playing time despite his $7.5 million contract, hasn’t driven in a run and hasn’t hit a home run in 25 games this season, and his .535 on-base-plus-slugging percentage is the worst of his career. Back in 2021, however, Schoop hit .278 with 22 homers and 84 RBIs.
That’s what makes this bizarre.
The 31-year-old has a legitimate track record of hitting across his 11-year career, which spans 1,158 games. Over the past six full seasons, before the 2023 campaign, Schoop posted five seasons with at least 20 home runs and four seasons with at least a .250 batting average.
Over the past year, Schoop went from being the everyday second baseman to sitting on the bench. He has started 17 of his 25 games and completed nine innings in just nine games, all while respecting the Tigers and the situation.
Here’s one positive from Schoop: He is hitting .321 with three walks and seven strikeouts in 31 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, and he is thriving in pinch-hit opportunities against lefties. But his lefty success might not be enough for him to stick around for the entire season.
Three others: Matthew Boyd (LHP), Matt Vierling (RF), Tyler Alexander (LHP).
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @EvanPetzold.