A week ago, it seemed certain with just about any entity tracking the 2023 MLB Draft that Louisiana State’s swaggering outfielder, Dylan Crews, was destined to be the venerable first pick when the draft gets rolling on July 9.
Bob Dylan’s lyrics now apply: “Things have changed.”
University of Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford very possibly today would be the first player grabbed, by Pittsburgh, with Crews a reasonable bet over LSU right-handed ace Paul Skenes to be snagged second overall by the Nationals.
That would leave the Tigers presumably haggling at No. 3 between Skenes or North Carolina prep outfielder Walker Jenkins.
Jenkins, seemingly, would win there, all because the Tigers are theorized to want a bat over an arm, even when the arm is as good as the artillery piece owned by Skenes.
What happened to change the draft board’s complexion, three weeks into May?
▶ 1. Crews has cooled noticeably in May, as much as a player batting .423 after 55 games, with a 1.279 OPS, can be considered to have chilled. Langford, meanwhile, has been torrid. He shook off a nasty early-spring groin mishap and is now at .399 in 48 games, with 16 home runs and a 1.393 OPS.
Langford, like Crews, bats right-handed. Langford, like Crews, can play center field, although a corner spot probably becomes each player’s eventual station.
While three weeks of games should have a negligible effect on a player’s draft status, it can affect tie-breakers when players are viewed as similarly as Langford and Crews are appraised.
▶ 2. More critically, it is believed Langford’s camp (it includes the Wasserman group and agent Al Goetz) is at least open to discussing with the Pirates a reduced price at that first-overall slot, which is set by MLB headquarters to be $9.72 million.
The slot at No. 2 overall, owned by the Nationals, is $8,998,500, with the third slot — which belongs to the Tigers — ostensibly capped at $8,341,700.
This is where business in a typical MLB Draft can turn sticky, financial — and even political.
If the Pirates were able to offer Langford money slightly exceeding the $8.34 million the Tigers would be prepared to pay at No. 3, the Pirates could spend, say, $8.5 million and have nearly $1 million extra to use on a later pick — enough, perhaps, to entice a prep player from his college scholarship and sign with the Pirates.
Why would this be viewed by the Langfords as either a No. 1-overall or No. 3-overall probability?
All because the Nationals, picking second, have been viewed throughout as being the most likely resting place for Skenes.
That perhaps changes if Langford goes first and Crews suddenly is available for Washington to scarf up at No. 2. And it is Crews who might be the only player who can pry the Nationals from Skenes.
In such a situation, the Tigers now would play hot-potato with either Skenes, or Jenkins, at No. 3. There is no concrete evidence the Tigers are looking at players other than those four, with probable emphasis on Langford, Crews, and Jenkins.
Why would the Langford team consider this deal-cutting scenario with Pittsburgh?
Easily, in the sense a better payday could be assured rather than gambling that Langford would fall no deeper than No. 3 overall. Also, the prestige of being a first-overall draft pick is significant, and lifelong.
Agents also are part of any MLB Draft reality.
Scott Boras represents the brunt of this year’s early-round projections, including Jenkins.
Wasserman is chasing Boras on the college front and would love having the first-overall pick as its client.
How likely is it that this week’s script figure to be July 9’s story?
We’ll find out.
But, note that the top four players in this year’s MLB Draft sweepstakes have not changed, as a group, in the eyes of most appraisers.
All that has shifted, as best the evidence supports, is a possible alteration of order with respect to Langford, Crews, Skenes, and Jenkins.
Drama enveloping these four men figures to remain a constant. Final calls might not be final until July 9’s draft clock hits its last ticks.
Detroit News ranking of the top 10 amateur baseball talents as they currently sit leading into the 2023 MLB Draft, set for July 9-11.
▶ 1. Wyatt Langford, OF, University of Florida, 6-1, 225, right-handed batter: His pure relentlessness as a hitter, with big power and with enough skills to play center field, has made him the new most likely man to be picked first in this year’s draft. That, coupled with the possibility his negotiating team will cut a deal with the Pirates with that first slot. Last week’s ranking: 3.
▶ 2. Dylan Crews, Louisiana State University, outfielder, 6-foot-1, 203 pounds, RH batter: A soft May — relatively speaking — has made Crews something other than a mandate at No. 1. This slight downgrade has been helped, of course, by the thought Langford and Co. could be amenable to a less-than-slot dollars at the top. Last week’s ranking: 1
▶ 3. Paul Skenes, Louisiana State, RH starter, 6-6, 240: Skenes has moved from being a prohibitive favorite for the Nationals at No. 2 to now ranking a cut beneath Crews if Washington picked today. Of course, they’re not drafting today, so stay tuned, especially when Nats chief Mike Rizzo and his affinity for once-a-decade arms is still burning. Last week’s ranking: 2.
▶ 4. Walker Jenkins, CF, 6-3, 205, South Brunswick High, Southport, N.C, LH batter: It would seem as if Jenkins will be too much talent for the Tigers to bypass, even if this comes down for them to a Jenkins-Skenes debate. The belief today is that a team still aching for long-run offense can’t pass on a left-handed slugger as radiant as this prep star. Last week’s ranking: 4.
▶ 5. Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Indiana) Community High School, 6-1, 190, LH batter: His talents are so exclusive, it’s tough seeing Clark as anything deeper than a No. 5-overall choice. Some scouts like him — skills-wise — more than Jenkins. Others like the overall package Jenkins provides, which, in the Tigers’ case, would seem to preclude any chance the Tigers would opt for Clark. They probably want a sure thing, personally and athletically, in Scott Harris’ first season as front-office boss. Last week’s ranking: 5.
▶ 6. Jacob Wilson, shortstop, Grand Canyon University, 6-3, 190, RH batter: Has not wavered in the three months since college games began showing skills sets in full. Wilson holds up, defensively, and as a dependable bat who will play in the big leagues, probably quickly. Last week’s ranking: 6
▶ 7. Matt Shaw, IF, University of Maryland, 5-11, 182, RH batter: So much power, it matters not that Shaw won’t play shortstop. He’s likely a third baseman, with 30-homer potential. Last week’s ranking: 8.
▶ 8. Rhett Lowder, RH starter, Wake Forest, 6-2, 200: Thursday, against Virginia Tech, was not vintage Lowder, but it was close: six innings, seven hits (more than customary), three runs (also a bit more), one walk, 12 strikeouts, 98 pitches. He’ll be running similar numbers in an MLB game, perhaps by next year. Last week’s ranking: 7
▶ 9. Kyle Teel, C, University of Virginia, 6-1, 190, LH batter: Tigers scouts were paying attention last Thursday when Teel slammed a home run at Georgia Tech. The next night, he hit another homer and added a double in a 4-for-5 show. It’s not likely Teel will be a Tigers temptation at No. 3 overall, but he’s sliding into top-10 status. Last week’s ranking: Unranked.
▶ 10. Jacob Gonzalez, SS, University of Mississippi, 6-2, 200, LH batter: Much the same as Wilson, Gonzalez is steady enough to stick as a top-10 shortstop. He doesn’t have Wilson’s defense, nor his bat-to-ball skills. But left-handed power goes a long way with scouts. Last week’s ranking: 9.
Dropped from top-10 ranking
▶ Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest High (Dover, Fla.), 6-1, 170, RH batter: So much talent — maybe as much athleticism as any infielder at the top offers. But, there’s just enough risk here to keep Nimmala from being premier first-round material. Last week’s ranking: 10.
Knocking at the door
▶ Colin Houck, SS, Parkview High, Lilburn, Georgia, 6-2, 193, RH batter: He has more body and more projectable skills than Nimmala. Enough to be a top-10 grab on July 9? Don’t rule it out. His numbers are in the neighborhood expected: .487, eight homers, .589 OBP, .857 slugging, 1.446 OPS.
▶ Noble Meyer, RH starter, Jesuit High, West Linn, Ore., 6-5, 200: Almost every team gets nervous about taking a prep pitcher early in the first round. Here’s an exception, as figures to be confirmed July 9. Meyer likely is plucked, rapidly.
▶ Chase Dollander, RH starter, University of Tennessee, 6-2, 210: A better game Saturday at South Carolina: 5.1 innings, two hits, two runs, no walks, 13 punch-outs. Now, that’s more like it.
▶ Jack Hurley, CF, Virginia Tech, 6-foot, 185, LH hitter: First round? Yes, probably. Early in the first round? No.
Lynn Henning is a freelance writer and retired Detroit News reporter.