The unofficial first half of the season is over.
The Detroit Tigers entered the All-Star break at 39-50, good for third place in the American League Central, five games behind the second-place Minnesota Twins and 5½ games behind the first-place Cleveland Guardians.
There are 73 games remaining.
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In our first stock watch since May 15, here’s how some of the players are trending with 54.9% of the season in the books:
Three up
The Tigers have been proactive in protecting Skubal’s health, but in his return from left flexor tendon surgery, the 26-year-old has thrown eight scoreless innings with two walks and 11 strikeouts in two starts.
He looks better than ever.
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During his rehabilitation, pitching coach Chris Fetter and assistant pitching coaches Robin Lund and Juan Nieves tweaked Skubal’s mechanics to help him throw harder. His fastball averaged 96 mph in his first two starts this season compared to 94.1 mph in 21 starts last season.
His slider also has more depth with consistency.
In the 2022 season, Skubal posted a 3.52 ERA with 32 walks and 117 strikeouts over 117⅔ innings. His stock was already high, considering the rumors at last year’s trade deadline; coming back from arm surgery, he has reestablished himself at the top of the Tigers’ starting rotation.
It won’t happen this year, but Skubal has the potential to win the American League Cy Young award.
At some point, the Tigers will allow Skubal to pitch deeper into games. He could have a shorter start coming out of the All-Star break before the limitation on his pitch count is lifted for the remainder of the season.
Foley has continued to shut down opposing teams in the late innings out of the bullpen with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.87 FIP across 21⅓ innings in 20 games since May 15. He looks like he should be the primary closer for the Tigers coming out of the All-Star break, replacing Alex Lange.
In 2023, Foley owns a 2.09 ERA with seven walks and 34 strikeouts across 38⅔ innings in 38 games, recording three saves in five opportunities. The high-leverage reliever has thrown 20 of those innings in the eighth.
The 27-year-old ranks in the 77th percentile in chase rate (31.3%), 89th percentile for barrel rate (4.6% of 108 batted balls), 93rd percentile for fastball velocity (97.1 mph) and 94th percentile for walk rate (4.7%). He doesn’t get many swings and misses, but he keeps the contact against him on the ground.
His 97.1 mph sinker has a run value of minus-12, the fifth-best sinker in baseball behind Toronto’s Chris Bassitt, Houston’s Framber Valdez, Baltimore’s Yennier Cano and Texas’ Dane Dunning. It’s tied for the 18th-best pitch in baseball.
Vierling has been flying under the radar.
The 26-year-old — acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies in an offseason trade — has been the Tigers’ best position player since May 15 based on his 1.2 fWAR in 34 games. (He has produced 0.8 fWAR in 69 games for the entire season.)
Vierling is hitting .345 with five home runs, 14 walks and 17 strikeouts over those past 34 games. He missed two weeks, from May 29 through June 11, while on the injured list with low back soreness.
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Since May 15, Vierling’s 168 wRC+ ranks sixth among 247 players with at least 120 plate appearances. He trails only Shohei Ohtani (213), Corey Seager (180), Mookie Betts (173), Sean Murphy (171) and Freddie Freeman (170).
For the entire season, his 116 wRC+ ranks 69th among 181 players with at least 250 plate appearances. He has a .280 batting average with seven homers, 21 walks and 48 strikeouts in 69 games.
That’s above-average production at the plate.
Honorable mention: Tyler Holton (LHP), Riley Greene (OF), Jake Rogers (C).
Three down
It’s been a bad season for Haase.
The timing of his swing has been inconsistent for a long time.
The 30-year-old is hitting .206 with three home runs, 14 walks and 64 strikeouts in 68 games this season. Since May 15, Haase has a .151 batting average with one home run and a .409 OPS in 37 games. The problem is simple: Haase, an offense-first catcher, isn’t hitting for power like he did in 2021 and 2022.
The Tigers have three catchers on the 40-man roster: Haase, Rogers and Donny Sands.
Rogers has solidified himself as the starting catcher, thanks to his combination of power at the plate and game calling behind it, while Sands is hitting .239 with two home runs in 56 games for Triple-A Toledo.
Haase, even in his darkest days, seems like a better option than Sands. If he heats up, the home runs could pile up quickly.
Since May 15, Lange has a 6.86 ERA across 19⅔ innings in 19 appearances. The 27-year-old dominated in the second half of May before completely falling apart, posting a 10.22 ERA since June 4.
That includes two losses and two blown saves in his past 13 appearances.
In 2023, Lange owns a 4.17 ERA with 23 walks and 47 strikeouts across 36⅔ innings in 37 games. He has racked up 13 saves in 16 opportunities but might need a new role coming out of the All-Star break.
There’s no question about Lange’s effectiveness, thanks to an unbelievable swing-and-miss curveball, when he throws pitches inside the strike zone. One problem: His 14.3% walk rate ranks in the 3rd percentile.
He had nine walks in 17 innings before May 15 (with a 1.06 ERA), then 14 walks in 19⅔ innings after May 15 (with a 6.86 ERA). The walks have made the biggest impact in Lange’s declining production.
The .331 on-base percentage — a product of more walks and fewer strikeouts — is a significant improvement from last season, but Baddoo is hitting .225 with three home runs in 52 games this season.
He has six stolen bases in seven attempts.
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The 24-year-old is playing at a below-average rate and could feel pressure if outfield prospect Parker Meadows, a left-handed hitter in Triple-A Toledo, emerges as an option for the Tigers after the All-Star break.
Since May 15, Baddoo has a .206 batting average with 14 walks and 16 strikeouts in 24 games.
Baddoo, despite a fantastic .878 OPS in May, struggled at the beginning of June before a right quad strain forced him to spend roughly one month on the injured list. He returned from the injury July 7 and is hitting .069 with four walks and 10 strikeouts in his past nine games, dating back to June 2.
Honorable mention: José Cisnero (RHP), Javier Báez (SS), Michael Lorenzen (RHP).
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @EvanPetzold.