Trading left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez makes too much sense.
The Detroit Tigers have fallen out of competition for the American League Central. Rodriguez is enjoying a career-best season and will certainly exercise the opt-out clause in his current contract after the season and became a free agent, leaving three years and $49 million on the table. Acquiring young players is the priority as the Tigers build for the future under first-year president of baseball operations Scott Harris.
Only it’s not that simple.
One detail of the five-year, $77 million contract, which Rodriguez signed in November 2021 under former general manager Al Avila, is being factored into negotiations by interested teams. The opt-out clause changes everything, especially for smaller-market clubs, about Rodriguez’s trade value.
Option 1: Trade him for lesser value
Rodriguez would be more valuable as a standalone trade candidate without the opt-out clause in his contract.
The 30-year-old, who owns a 2.95 ERA in 88⅓ innings across 15 starts, is basically a three-month rental with additional risk for the team acquiring him. The circumstance makes him less valuable than if he were a true rental like teammate and fellow starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen.
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If Rodriguez continues his success in those three months, he will become a second-time free agent after the season. If Rodriguez suffers a serious injury in those three months, he could decide to play out the final three years of his contract and cash in the remaining $49 million.
The uncertainty hurts Rodriguez’s value because an acquiring team would take on all of the potential downside — either opting out or getting injured — without any of the upside beyond his projected contributions in August and September.
It will be difficult, maybe even impossible, for the Tigers to fetch a return that aligns with Rodriguez’s on-field value. The Tigers might need to package Rodriguez with a controllable young player to complete a trade.
Option 2: Keep him and let him walk
This would be the worst choice the Tigers could make.
The demand for starting pitching is higher than the supply, and the Tigers have a starter on the market in Rodriguez. The Tigers might not receive the type of return package that they’re hoping for in a trade, but they will be able to get something.
The Tigers could hold onto Rodriguez at the trade deadline, but unless he suffers an injury, he is unlikely to return for the 2024 season without an increase of his $16.3 million average annual value over the next three seasons.
A bigger payday awaits Rodriguez in free agency.
Option 3: Negotiate new contract
Rodriguez loves pitching for the Tigers.
The Tigers love Rodriguez because of his performance on the mound and influence with young pitchers behind the scenes.
There haven’t been formal negotiations between the Tigers and Rodriguez about restructuring his contract, but a lot can change before Tuesday’s trade deadline. Rodriguez is scheduled to start for the Tigers on Tuesday — 65 minutes after the deadline — against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park.
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The second option doesn’t make sense if the Tigers want to maintain leverage in potential contract negotiations, so the Tigers could end up choosing between the first and third options.
Rodriguez is worth 2.1 fWAR through 15 starts this season, which ranks 31st among 95 starting pitches with at least 80 innings. His on-field value will continue to climb, even if his trade value plateaus, as long as he stays healthy.
It’s now or never for the Tigers to work out a contract extension.
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @EvanPetzold.