Y’know, there was a time, not so long ago, that the Detroit Tigers were buyers at the trade deadline, rather than sellers.
Oh, for those hazy, crazy days of 2010-13, when the Tigers spun … well, we wouldn’t call them blockbusters, mostly — Jhonny Peralta (2010), Doug Fister (2011), Aníbal Sánchez (2012) and José Iglesias (2013) weren’t stars yet — at the deadline, finding undervalued gems to boost their playoff hopes. (There was 2014, too, with David Price arriving and Austin Jackson, Drew Smyly and a teenaged Willy Adames departing mid-game, but that was a blockbuster.)
Of course, the Tigers have been on the other side of the market for a few years now, under a couple execs — Dave Dombrowski (for exactly one trade deadline) and Al Avila (too soon?) — with experiences that ranged from “fire sale” (2015’s liquidation of David Price and Yoenis Céspedes) to “yawwwwwn sale” (2022’s exchanges of Michael Fulmer and Robbie Grossman).
And now it’s first-year president of baseball operations (POBO, for short) Scott Harris’ turn, with a squad that’ll hit Tuesday’s 6 p.m. deadline 12 games under .500 and yet just 6½ games off the AL Central lead. (Has anyone mentioned the division stinks?)
Hello, and welcome to the Arms Dealer Newsletter!
The good news for Harris? Despite the Tigers’ lousy record, there are plenty of tradeable players: most notably (aka, most valuably), starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Lorenzen.
“HOWWWWDEEEE! C’mon down to Crazy Scotty’s House of Arms! If we don’t got it, YOU DON’T NEED IT! We got lefties with big bucks due! We got righties on expiring contracts! We got veteran relievers on the cheap, and young studs years from free agency! All-Stars! LOOGYs! And everyone in between! Just text 555-ARMZZ — the extra ‘Z’ is for RodrigueZ! — or come on down to The CoPa! YOU’LL BE GLAD YOU DID!” (All offers expire at 6 p.m. Aug. 2.)
The bad news for the POBO? The normal trade market for starting pitchers has been flooded by the (mostly) unexpected flops of the Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets, adding Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, among others, to the (not-so-) bargain bin. And already three of those four have been dealt, with Giolito going from the ChiSox to the Angels on Thursday and Montgomery and Scherzer going to the Rangers on Sunday (officially). The Mets are still taking offers on Verlander (though his no-trade clause and a contract that could run through 2025 make it, in a very Mets-ian way, complicated).
So what does this mean for the Tigers? Well, let’s look at the recent numbers for some pitchers on the market, traded and still available, to see what their returns brought. Can you match these July stats to their trade-candidate owners: Giolito, Lorenzen, Montgomery, Rodriguez, Scherzer and Verlander?
Pitcher A: 24 K, 5 BB, 20⅔ IP, 12 ER.
Pitcher B: 36 K, 12 BB, 31 IP, 15 ER.
Pitcher C: 32 K, 16 BB, 37⅓ IP, 7 ER.
Pitcher D: 21 K, 7 BB, 23⅔ IP, 3 ER.
Pitcher E: 23 K, 12 BB, 29 IP, 10 ER.
Pitcher F: 28 K, 14 BB, 27 IP, 15 ER.
Pitcher A, naturally, is Rodriguez, the Tigers’ biggest trade chip and man of mystery. Since returning from missing a little over a month with a finger injury, he has posted a 4.8 K/BB ratio — that would be sixth-best in the AL over a full season. Then again, E-Rod’s trade case is perhaps the most complicated, with a potential opt-out this offseason and $49 million due over the next three years of his contract — teams could treat him as a rental arm, lowering the prospect return for the Tigers, or the Tigers could kick in some cash to cover potential salary if he’s injured, with a resulting boost in talent coming to Detroit. (Also of note: E-Rod has a limited no-trade clause blocking a move to 10 teams.)
(Want to know more about the choices? The Freep’s Evan Petzold broke down the Tigers’ E-Rod options here, including why he might be sticking around all year. At least E-Rod won’t have to mull all this while waiting to start Tuesday night; on Sunday, the Tigers pushed his scheduled start back to Wednesday.)
Pitcher B, meanwhile, is Scherzer, whose 4.35 ERA in July wasn’t far off E-Rod’s 5.23. He, too, had an opt-out in his deal, albeit with one more year left at $43.3 million, and was still owed about $14.3 million this season, complicating the deal sending him the Rangers. That led to a few hours on Saturday night in which half the sports world was convinced he was headed to Texas and the other half was Mets fans convinced they’d screw it up. And yet, somehow they did not — the Mets greased the skids with about $35 million for the Rangers, Mad Max agreed not to opt out for 2024, and the Mets received prospect Luisangel Acuña (brother of Braves All-Star Ronald Acuña Jr.), who slots in as their No. 2 prospect. They could do worse. …
Like, say, with Pitcher C — Verlander, who reached career win No. 250 — 183 of which came with the Tigers — with another dominating performance Sunday. Verlander’s contract is a little different than Scherzer’s — J.V. is still owed $14.3 million this year and $43.3 million next, but rather than an opt-out, Verlander has an option for 2025 (when he’ll be 42) at $35 million. Will he bring a top prospect? We know only that he, too, has a no-trade clause which, you guessed it, will complicate things.
That’s unlike Pitcher D: the Tigers’ own 2023 All-Star in Lorenzen. After posting a 1.95 ERA in May, and a 5.30 ERA in June, the righty’s 1.14 mark in July is the second-best among pitchers with at least 20 innings thrown in the month (behind only Blake Snell of the Padres). Even better — at least in the eyes of potential trade partners — Lorenzen’s contract is straightforward, with about $2.8 million due over his final two months before hitting free agency.
We can consider that comparable to Pitcher E, Montgomery, who was shipped out (less than a year after arriving from the Yankees in a deadline deal for outfielder Harrison Bader) along with reliever Chris Stratton for a prospect package of right-hander Tekoah Roby, shortstop Thomas Saggese, and big-league left-hander John King. Roby and Saggese slot in as the Cards’ new Nos. 4 and 8, according to MLB Pipeline. Considering the Cards didn’t have to send any cash to cover the remaining $3.3 million on Montgomery’s $10 million contract, that’s a decent return.
Though it might not be as good as the White Sox fared when they dealt Pitcher F, Giolito (who was owed about $3.4 million in the final year of his contract), along with reliever Reynaldo Lopez to Southern California last week. That brought catching prospect Edgar Quero, who posted a .965 OPS at age 19 in Class-A ball last year and slots in as the White Sox’s No. 2 prospect. Could the Tigers package Lorenzen and a reliever for a similar package?
Of course, the Angels, Rangers, whatever team lands J.V. (it’ll be the Astros again, we know) and the rest of the actual needy contenders — hey there, Dodgers and Orioles! — aren’t just making their deals based on July performances. But if recent heaters play into the trade calculations at all, the Tigers could be poised to profit in prospects — that is, assuming everyone’s got Crazy Scotty’s phone number.
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José, can you see …
“Crazy Scotty’s here to make a deal, folks! COME ON DOWN and let us get you into a gently used José Cisnero! This baby already has 45 strikeouts in just 40⅔ innings! A real veteran arm, good for a World Series contender or just a push for THE WILD-CARD ROUND!”
Yes, the Tigers have relievers on the block, as well, with the 34-year-old Cisnero set to hit free agency for the first time this offseason. Still, he’s not raring to depart the Motor City, as he told Our Man Petzold last week: “This is my family right here.” Head here to find out how Cisnero is staying focused on his bullpen duties.
Keep calm and Kerry on
“Not looking for an arm? That’s GREAT! Crazy Scotty’s got BATS GALORE! Well, maybe not galore, I mean, have you seen Crazy Scotty’s offense posting 3.93 runs a game, third-worst in the majors? But for the right price, we can fix you up with a shiny used Kerry Carpenter!”
Carpenter is only 25 — he’ll turn 26 a month from Tuesday — but he could be expendable if Harris sees the Tigers’ outfield/designated hitter mix getting crowded, with Justyn-Henry Malloy, Colt Keith and Parker Meadows all pushing for call-ups. Still, the lefty has posted an .806 OPS since his return from the injured list in early June. Can the Tigers afford to deal that away? Our Man Petzold broke down all the Tigers’ potential trade chips; head here to check them out (and yes, they’ve mostly arms. Crazy Scotty knows what he’s got.)
The trial of Jobe
“Looking to sell? For Jackson Jobe? The No. 3 draft pick in 2021, before Crazy Scotty got to the Motor City? Well, uhhhh … Let’s get you talking with an operator … <CLICK … DIAL TONE> Gosh, Crazy Scotty must have hung up ACCIDENTALLY OF COURSE …”
Under previous regimes, Jobe might have been on the trade block, despite missing nearly three months this season with a back issue. That seems unlikely now, however, especially as the Tigers’ No. 3 prospect (again, according to MLB Pipeline) appears to be clicking; his first start for High-A West Michigan, on Saturday, featured four hits (three of them homers) and no walks scattered over five innings, to go with nine strikeouts. More importantly, Jobe — who turned 21 on Sunday — appears to be learning from his struggles, as the Freep’s Jeff Seidel learned from a talk with the righty last week. Head here to find out how Jobe learned to harness his nasty slider.
Party on, Miggy
“Folks, when Crazy Scotty says he has EVERYTHING, he MEANS IT. We’ve even got a 12-time All-Star! One of three players ever with 3,000 hits, 500 homers and a .300 batting average! The greatest Venezuelan hitter ever!”
Hahahahahahaha, no, Miguel Cabrera is not headed anywhere at Tuesday’s trade deadline, especially not after the weekend Miggyfest in Miami, where he got his start 20 years ago. For 72 hours, loanDepot Park — which yes, sounds like where Crazy Scotty’s should be located — celebrated Cabrera, and he celebrated right back, including a rare extended talk with reporters. Our Man Petzold has the details here, including who he thinks will take his place as the next great Venezuelan slugger. There was also a special moment on Sunday, when Cabrera faced 25-year-old lefty Jesús Luzardo, a Team Venezuela teammate in the World Baseball Classic who grew up in South Florida idolizing Cabrera. Our Man Petzold has that story, too, including a flashback to the 2003 World Series.
3 to watch
“The deals JUST DON’T STOP at Crazy Scotty’s … but, uh, these guys probably aren’t going anywhere…”
JOEY WENTZ: A 12-strikeout game for Toledo got the lefty back to the majors Saturday; he may be back to stay.
TREY WINGENTER: The righty reliever is healthy again and is waiting in Triple-A for a roster spot to open up … say, after the trade deadline.
SHOHEI OHTANI: Not a Tiger, but … c’mon! One hit allowed in Game 1 of a doubleheader, and then two home runs in Game 2?
Mark your calendar
“Jim Leyland here, for Crazy Scotty’s …”
Yes, the Tigers wrap up the Leyland Bowl — they went 1-1 against the Pirates in Detroit back in May — with two games in less than 24 hours (7:05 p.m. Tuesday and 12:35 p.m. Wednesday), sandwiched between off days Monday and Thursday. (The Tigers and Pirates’ ex-skipper isn’t the only shared link between the two franchises, by the way — notables such as Kirk Gibson, Hank Greenberg, Richie Hebner, Brandon Inge, Heinie Manush, Craig Monroe and Lance Parrish have suited up for both squads, too.) After that, it’s a return home to face the Tampa Bay Rays at Comerica Park on Fiesta Tigres Weekend beginning Friday night.
Happy birthday, Reese!
Rookie right-hander Reese Olson, who joined the organization at 2021’s trade deadline in the Daniel Norris deal with the Brewers — THAT WAS BEFORE CRAZY SCOTTY’S TIME, TOO! — turns 24 today. Olson is another Tiger whose role should solidify after the trade deadline; he followed a gem right after the All-Star break in Seattle with back-to-back rough ones against NL foes. In all, Olson has 47 strikeouts and just 10 walks over 49⅔ innings this season; he has yet to walk more than two batters in any of his 11 appearances.
Other Tigers birthdays this week: Gabe Kapler (48 on Monday), Matt Joyce (39 on Thursday), Harry Heilmann (would have been 129 on Thursday; died in 1951), Dave Rozema (67 on Saturday).
TL;DR
“So come on down to Crazy Scotty’s House of Arms, folks! If we don’t got it, it was probably the previous guy’s fault! And remember, if you don’t come see me today, I can’t trade you a pitcher tomorrow!”
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @theford.