Series Preview: Detroit Tigers host Houston Astros for 3-game weekend set

The Detroit Tigers return to Comerica Park on Friday following an unsuccessful road trip that saw them get swept by the New York Yankees followed by dropping two of three to the Cleveland Guardians. Now, AJ Hinch’s squad prepares for a six-game home stand starting on Friday night against the Houston Astros.

The recent stretch of losses dropped the Olde English D to fourth in the American League Central division despite being a game over .500 — if you can believe it — with the Guardians in control, followed by the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals who are tied at 1.5 games back. Compare that with the AL West, where the Astros are the cellar-dwellers eight games behind the defending World Series champions, the Texas Rangers.

Take a look below at the pitching matchups lined up for this weekend, including a visit from an old friend from Detroit’s golden era.

Detroit Tigers (19-18) vs. Houston Astros (13-24)

Times (ET): Friday: 6:10 p.m.; Saturday: 6:15 p.m.; Sunday: 1:40 p.m.
Place: Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan
SB Nation Site: The Crawfish Boxes
Media: Bally Sports Detroit, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Game 38: RHP Casey Mize (1-1, 3.98 ERA) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (1-1, 3.97 ERA)

Mize’s comeback campaign was going somewhat smoothly until his last outing against the Yankees. The 27-year-old had done quite well at overall run suppression in his first five starts — all of which were team wins — but he was tagged for five runs on nine hits (one home run) and a walk while striking out six en route to the loss. Some of the righty’s peripherals are not looking too hot, with expected batting average (23rd), average exit velocity (11th), chase percentage (19th), chase percentage (19th), whiff percentage (21st) and hard-hit percentage (15th) all at or below the 23rd percentile in the majors.

Valdez’s seventh big league campaign hit an early hurdle as he dealt with elbow soreness following his second start of the season — which remains his best outing so far. The 30-year-old’s two starts since returning from the injured list have been very underwhelming, combined for seven runs allowed on 14 hits (two home runs) and a walk while striking out nine in 10 ¹⁄₃ frames. The southpaw’s average exit velocity (6th percentile) and extension (7th percentile) are among the worst in baseball.

Game 39: LHP Tarik Skubal (4-0, 1.90 ERA) vs. RHP Cristian Javier (2-0, 1.54 ERA)

Skubal’s monstrous campaign rolls along on Saturday as he continues to prove he is truly an elite ace. How elite? A picture is worth a thousand words for the 27-year-old.

Javier has put together some pretty tidy numbers in the early part of his fifth major league season. Along with his ERA (which FIP raises a red flag over), WHIP (1.11) and home runs per nine innings (0.4), the 27-year-old has recorded quality starts in two of his four total appearances with a seven-inning, two-run effort against the Rangers last week for the win. Another feather in the righty’s cap is his hard-hit percentage, which ranks in the 5th percentile among his MLB peers, as does his offspeed run value.

Game 40: RHP Jack Flaherty (0-2, 3.86 ERA) vs. RHP Justin Verlander (1-1, 4.43 ERA)

Flaherty’s re-emergence has been a godsend for the Tigers in the early goings, with the eight-year veteran putting up some of his best numbers since 2021. The 28-year-old has been an absolute workhorse, throwing at least six frames in all but one of his seven starts — with four being of the quality variety. Further, the righty’s whiff percentage (97th percentile), strikeout percentage (94th percentile) and walk percentage (94th percentile) are all among the best in the bigs; his breaking ball run value is also in the 97th percentile.

Verlander is only two years separated from his 2022 Cy Young Award-winning campaign but the wear and tear from the grind has left him a shell of his peak form in 2024. Not that the 41-year-old cannot go out and give his team a solid effort — after all, two of his four outings this year have been quality starts — but the future Hall of Famer just cannot miss bats anymore. The former Tiger’s whiff percentage (9th percentile), strikeout percentage (13th percentile), barrel percentage (5th percentile), ground ball percentage (3rd percentile) and extension (12th percentile) all paint a bleak picture.

Series Outlook: Kick ‘em when they’re down

This is yet another winnable series for the Tigers and after the tough rough trip, they really need to take advantage of a team that has struggled to earn victories. The problem is that the Astros have a pretty potent offense, ranking seventh in the majors in OPS (.735) and home runs (44). Houston’s pitching, on the other hand, is among the worst ranking 28th in ERA (5.00), 29th in WHIP (1.48) and 26th in batting average against (.260). This weekend is as good of a chance as any for Detroit’s offense to find a spark as the fans can expect some fireworks.