Detroit — If it were my call, Matthew Boyd would be a part of the Tigers’ rotation in 2022.
For two reasons: The shrewd and stingy five-pitch lefty that we’ve seen be dominating for stretches over the last four seasons is still in there. The projective metrics tell us this. Secondly, the clubhouse in general and the pitching staff specifically are healthier when Boyd is part of the leadership group.
To me, the intrinsic and intangible value Boyd brings to this team is vital.
The arm injury this season is worrisome, for sure. But given how hard he trains, given how intelligent and diligent he is about his arm program and overall health (he is a fitness and nutrition fanatic), it’s easy to see this injury as an outlier, possibly a by-product of the shortened 2020 season and the hamstring injury that forced him to alter his mechanics a year ago.
The Tigers, who absolutely know his medicals better than anyone, have taken fliers on pitchers with a more worrisome injury history than Boyd’s in recent years (Tyson Ross, Matt Moore, Julio Teheran).
I see Boyd slotting in as the No. 3 or No. 4 starter next year, pitching between 180-200 innings and being a reliable, consistent and winning presence. I see him being a rock for the still-young guns Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning. Since he’s shouldered the burden through the devastation years of the rebuild (2018, 2019, 2020), I see him relishing and flourishing in packed stadiums pitching in a true playoff race next August and September.
But that’s just my simplistic, overly sentimental opinion. You can’t be simple or sentimental when you sit in general manager Al Avila’s chair. Avila has a much more complex cost analysis to sort out. He needs to calculate such nebulous concepts as cost gains vs. replacement need.
Boyd will be 31 next season and eligible for arbitration for the second year. He’s making $6.5 million this year. So, conservative estimate, he could cost the Tigers between $7 and $9 million.
Put that in context to what we presume to be the Tigers top priorities this offseason.
► Priority One: Top-end shortstop. Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, are all possibilities. Each would carry a price tag between $20 and $30 million per year.
► Priority Two: With Jake Rogers undergoing Tommy John surgery and lost for 2022, suddenly the Tigers need to look around for an experienced, mid-priced catcher.
► Priority Three: With Boyd, the Tigers likely will add another bargain starting pitcher or two. Without Boyd, and depending on what happens with the shortstop, they could go after a more upper-tier starter. Though there isn’t likely to be another deal like the Blue Jays got with Robbie Ray ($8 million) on this particular market.
► Priority Four: The Tigers would love to add another power bat, preferably a right-handed hitter, preferably an outfielder. If they had to settle for a second-tier shortstop (Andrelton Simmons, perhaps), maybe they make this the big-ticket get (Starling Marte, as an example).
To me, signing or extending Boyd crosses Priority Three off the books. It seems imprudent to spend $10 to $15 million on a starting pitcher with Mize, Skubal and hopefully Manning coming into their own, and lefty Joey Wentz and Alex Faedo coming perhaps later in 2022. I personally don’t see a vast upgrade on the market at Boyd’s price.
More: Henning: Front-office shuffling shows Hinch the Tigers ready for postseason push
But the Tigers might. Or, they could see the $7-$9 million earmarked for Boyd better spent in other areas.
No decisions have been made on any of this, obviously. There are still 21 games left in what has been Year One of the turnaround. If the season had started on May 7, the Tigers’ 57-51 record would put them 5.5 games behind the White Sox in the Central Division.
They need to carry that momentum through to the end and further validate to Avila and ownership that the time to make a serious talent upgrade — in free agency or trade — is now. That with Riley Greene and possibly Spencer Torkelson coming next season, the Tigers are ready to seriously contend for a playoff spot.
Along those lines, Boyd, who starts Friday night in the first game of a three-game series against the Rays at Comerica Park, has five more starts to state his case for inclusion in the 2022 plans.
This would be an optimal time for him to reprise one of those rolls he gets on — like at the start of the season (1.94 ERA, .203 opponent average, .270 opponent slug over the first seven starts). This would be an optimal time for the above-average spin rates on his fastball, slider and curve, his 72% first-pitch strike rate, his 31% chase rate and 23% swing-and-miss rate to translate into a string of quality starts.
It’s not do-or-die, for sure. After seven seasons, the Tigers have seen every version of Matthew Boyd. It’s not like he’s going to surprise them in these last handful of starts. Still, there is value in creating some positive recency bias — a favorable final impression. A strong finish would at least provide a fresh reminder that he is healthy and capable and the best buy they are going to get for $7-$9 million.
On deck: Rays
► Series: Three games at Comerica Park, Detroit
► First pitch: Friday — 7:10; Saturday — 6:10 p.m.; Sunday — 12:10 p.m.
► TV/radio: Friday-Saturday — BSD/97.1 FM; Sunday — BSD/950 AM.
► Probables: Friday — RHP Michael Wacha (3-4, 5.54) vs. LHP Matthew Boyd (3-8, 3.89); Saturday — RHP Luis Patino (4-3, 4.65) vs. RHP Casey Mize (7-7, 3.57); Sunday — TBD vs. LHP Tarik Skubal (8-12, 4.30).
Scouting report
► Wacha, Rays: This is expected to be a piggyback start for the Rays. Wacha likely will go no more than four innings. Right-hander Chris Archer is expected to be next man up. After three horrendous starts early in August, Wacha has allowed just three runs with 13 strikeouts over his last two starts, covering 10.1 innings.
► Boyd, Tigers: He was the victim of a five-run third inning in his last start in Cincinnati. He struggled to command the inside part of the plate with his four-seam fastball against the Reds’ right-handed-heavy lineup. He also didn’t have a feel for his change-up, which was a fatal combination.
chris.mccosky@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @cmccosky